Swine cycle 3 years a cycle, the pig cycle is an economic phenomenon, refers to "high prices hurt the people, the price of cheap injury to the farmers," the cycle of pork price changes in the strange circle.

The anchor point of the pig cycle is the number of breeding sows, 40 million heads is a balance point, high pork prices, low pork rise "pig cycle" cycle trajectory is generally: high meat prices - sows stockpile The amount of large increase - the increase in the supply of hogs - meat prices fell - a large number of elimination of sows - the supply of hogs decreased --meat prices rise.

The hog cycle is the result of the instability of hog production output. Pig production is not synchronized with industrialization and urbanization. On the one hand, land, labor, capital flow dramatically to industry and cities, pig development slowed down; on the other hand, the rapid increase in residents' income, rural population into the city, pork demand rose sharply. Especially affected by the low comparative efficiency, difficult to control epidemics and market risks, pig production output fluctuates.

Why is there a hog cycle?

The so-called hog cycle is actually the ups and downs and rounds brought by the conflict between supply and demand. When the breeding volume is large, the supply far exceeds the consumption, pig prices will plummet, resulting in pig losses, pig farms began to de-capacity; and when excessive de-capacity, and then lead to a shortage of supply, the price of pigs skyrocketed, into a new round of capacity expansion period. So week after week, China has appeared four times the pig cycle. This time, it is the upward phase of the pig cycle, and because of the severe shortage, pig prices will not see the top for the time being.

Why are there big ups and downs between supply and demand, thus causing rounds and rounds of hog cycles?

1, biosecurity prevention and control capacity is seriously low

We found that almost all pig cycles are epidemic related. Big ones such as Aflatoxin and Blue Ear Disease (high fever), small ones such as PED (epidemic diarrhea). All of these epidemics have been known to bring about large capacity declines, which in turn lead to supply shortages and higher hog prices. Then came the easing of the outbreaks and the rapid recovery of capacity, leading to a new round of surpluses.

2, lack of planning

It is hard to imagine the huge risks associated with the lack of planning in a country with an annual demand of 700 million pigs and 50 million tons of pork. In addition to the pig cycle caused by major epidemics, the lack of planning is another major cause of the pig cycle.