The rising oil price in the international market has recently exceeded $70 per barrel, which has brought increasing pressure on China's rapidly developing social economy. For more than a century, oil is the most widely used fossil energy, and it is called "the blood of modern society". It is not only the mother of energy, but also the basic raw material of modern industrial products such as textiles, electronics, chemicals and materials. High oil price, shortage of resources, pressure of environmental protection and the need of rapid growth have formed irreconcilable contradictions, which directly restrict China to accelerate the construction of a "well-off society in an all-round way" and national security. According to the reporter's investigation and interview, China has studied the bioenergy and biomaterials industry with the ability to replace oil for decades, and has also accumulated a certain amount in biomass energy processing and transformation and related environmental protection technologies. Experts believe that China has the conditions for large-scale industrialization and industrialization of bioenergy and biomaterials, which will generate an output value of one trillion yuan in 2020, and form a partial substitution capacity at the "turning point of oil exhaustion".
Oil consumption is still the symbol of China's national consumption level, and huge imports endanger social and economic development and national security.
In this century, the rise in oil prices has put pressure on many ordinary people. Take No.93 gasoline as an example, the current price has risen from about 1.8 yuan before 2000 to about 4.4 yuan now. Professor Ni, an academician of China Academy of Engineering and former vice president of Tsinghua University, said in an interview a few days ago: According to the prediction of the US Department of Energy and the World Energy Council, the exploitable life of global petrochemical energy is 39 years for oil, 60 years for natural gas and 2 1 1 year for coal, which are mainly distributed in the United States, Canada, Russia and the Middle East. China is a country with relatively poor oil resources. Experts estimate that the stable supply of oil will not exceed 20 years. 2020 is likely to be a "turning point year" for us to achieve a "well-off society in an all-round way".
According to the information provided by the General Administration of Customs, China has become a net oil importer from 1993. In the past 10 years, China's oil demand almost doubled. In 2004, the imported crude oil was 65.438+0.2 billion tons, an increase of 34.8% over the previous year, accounting for more than 40% of the total oil supply in China. Dependence on oil imports will rise to 57% this year. By 20 10, the total oil consumption in China will reach 400 million tons. The domestic production capacity is only 65.438+0.6 billion tons to 65.438+0.7 billion tons. Free official document network all rights reserved!
In addition, China's demand for petroleum-based energy and materials, such as ethylene and alcohol, has soared. In 2004, the actual consumption was more than160,000 tons, and imports accounted for more than 40%. Experts predict that by 20 10, the demand for such products will rise to about 30 million tons. These are the basic raw materials for chemicals, electronics, automobiles, textiles, plastics and energy products. Moreover, at present, this complete set of equipment for petroleum processing products is monopolized by large foreign companies.
According to the rough statistics of relevant departments, the international crude oil price rose in 2004, which caused China to pay an extra $6 billion to $8 billion, equivalent to the minimum living allowance for 20 million unemployed workers for one year. On August 25th, 2005, the oil price in new york reached a new high, exceeding $67. At the same time, Goldman Sachs predicts that oil prices will continue to rise and may eventually reach $0/05 per barrel. Recently, the International Monetary Fund once again predicted that the international crude oil price would steadily climb above 100 USD due to the continuous and substantial increase of China's oil imports. Some experts even analyzed that developed countries will continue to push up oil prices as an important means to suppress China, Indian and other post-developed countries.
Petroleum is the basic energy raw material. Due to resource constraints, it is impossible to control the price, which has caused great pressure on the domestic market. Take Anhui as an example. In late March, the price increase of Anqing refined oil triggered a strike petition in the taxi industry, and the whole city was paralyzed. Previously, similar incidents occurred many times in large and medium-sized cities such as Nanjing. On August 1 day, another taxi strike directly triggered by oil prices occurred in Hefei. Even without considering the influence of international political changes on China's energy security, it has become a top priority to ensure the healthy and stable development of social economy and realize the goal of a well-off society in an all-round way.
Building a "well-off society" and developing the automobile industry are still the mainstream.
Cars are considered as a symbol of a modern well-off society. In 2000, our government proposed to build a "well-off society in an all-round way". At that time, there was a blowout in the automobile sales market in China, and at the same time there was a major turning point from group buying to individual car buying. According to the introduction of Anhui Chery Group, 2000 was designated as "the first year of China automobile" by the automobile industry, which was considered as the starting point for China automobile to enter a period of rapid development.
At present, the high price of refined oil has a certain impact on the development of automobile industry and the popularization of products, but from the experience of developed countries and the development trend of China, the rapid increase of automobile ownership is irreversible. Recently, the International Monetary Fund once again predicted that by 2030, the number of cars in China will reach 390 million, about 20 times as much as it is now.
Hefei University of Technology is one of the cradles of automobile talents in China. During the interview, experts and professors unanimously stated that "developed automobile industry" is an inevitable pillar for a country to step into industrialization and modernization. The research group of "National Economic Development Period" in the Business School of China University of Science and Technology has come to the conclusion that the industrialization process of any developed country can not be separated from the contribution of the automobile industry, especially the car industry. In the past 65,438+000 years, no invention can be compared with the automobile in promoting human progress. With the change of national consciousness and the leap-forward improvement of national quality, the popularization of automobiles plays an incomparable role. Automobile is a master of new technology, new materials and new technology, which promotes technological progress in all directions. Automobile is also an industry with high industrial relevance. According to the recognized data, the automobile industry, which is dominated by family cars, can pull the auxiliary industries and related industries to1:7:11; According to the survey, there are seven countries in the world whose GNP exceeds 1 trillion dollars, including China. The other six countries have "internationally competitive automobile industries", with 200-600 cars per thousand people. Only China is relatively backward in the national automobile industry, so the per capita gdp is only one twenty-first of the top six.
According to a survey conducted by the Research Office of the Ministry of Science and Technology, the automobile market in China has entered a period of rapid growth since 2000, with an increase of over 30% in the last two years. In 2003, the automobile output increased by 35.20% compared with the previous year, and the sales volume increased by 34.2 1%. The output of special purpose vehicles increased from 109.28 in the previous year to 206.89, an increase of 84.7%.
China's bioenergy industry has broad market prospects.
According to experts' analysis, oil is no longer the fuel for Li's sustainable development, and there are four major problems in over-dependence, including: the double risks of domestic resource shortage and fierce international oil competition; The performance of gasoline and diesel oil can no longer meet the sustainable development requirements of high level and high cleanliness of automobiles; Oil prices remain high and the burden on users increases; Dependence on imports will consume a lot of foreign exchange and affect domestic employment. Huge international procurement will make China crude oil fall into a "price encirclement" similar to the current iron ore market. In order to meet the demand of automobile consumption, it is an inevitable trend to establish an alternative fuel system for vehicles.
It is understood that the number of cars in China currently exceeds 20 million, and it will reach 50 million to 60 million in 20 10. By then, the annual output of domestic automobiles will reach more than100000, and the market scale of automobile refined oil will be several hundred billion yuan. On the other hand, environmental protection forces China to adopt oil substitution technology. In Beijing, Shanghai and other big cities, buses have earlier implemented the measures of replacing oil with natural gas, mainly because of environmental factors. At present, natural gas, coal, biomass energy and other technical routes to replace oil, their combustion emissions are less than about 40% of oil. According to the urban progress of China, 400 million people will "enter the city" before 2020, and the number of cars will increase dramatically. Without clean alternative energy, it is impossible to maintain a suitable urban living environment for human beings. It has been calculated that in big cities, every car uses 15kg of gasoline and diesel, and10.5 million tons of gasoline and diesel is used for/kloc-0 1.8338 million cubic meters of oxygen in the air, making it an oxygen-free gas containing only carbon dioxide and nitrogen. Because carbon dioxide is much heavier than air, most of it is distributed near the ground, and it can be accumulated within 100 square kilometers 1.83m thick, which is a slap higher than normal people in China. What a terrible scene it would be without the airflow given by nature!
Ouyang Pingkai, academician of China Academy of Engineering, director of the National Research Center for Biochemical Engineering Technology and president of Nanjing University, said that the National Committee of the United States predicted that by 2020, 50% of organic chemicals and materials would come from biomass raw materials. In China, biomass conversion was the earliest way to replace petroleum, that is, ethanol gasoline. Biodiesel is a vehicle fuel extracted from vegetable oil and animal oil, which can directly replace diesel oil, with low emission, no need to modify the engine, and has a protective effect on the vehicle engine. Countries all over the world attach great importance to this and develop rapidly. The United States, Canada, Brazil, Japan and India all have huge development plans. European Union countries use vegetable oil to process biodiesel, and the processing capacity of 200 1 year reaches 1 10,000 tons. Our government also attaches great importance to this work in this century. In recent years, many biodiesel plants with annual output exceeding 1 10,000 tons have been built one after another. It is estimated that by 20 10, the demand for biodiesel in China will reach 20 million tons.
The automobile energy market is stable and huge. In the case of high oil prices, the oil extended substitution market is also very considerable. Anhui Fengyuan Group built the world's first biomass raw material ethylene production device in Suzhou, which was put into operation at the end of 2004, with an annual output of 20,000 tons and considerable benefits. At the end of July 2005, when the reporter interviewed the enterprise, Wu Yuxi, the person in charge, said, "When the price of crude oil is around 35 dollars per barrel, the enterprise can make a profit; To 40 dollars a barrel, the profit per ton of products can reach 5000 yuan, and the profit per ton of products can reach 8000 yuan when the crude oil exceeds 50 dollars a barrel, with a profit rate as high as 35%.
The interviewed experts and entrepreneurs emphasized that there is an alternative route of coal chemical industry in the oil substitution industry. But replacing one scarce energy source with another can only be a stopgap measure. The industrial chain of bioenergy and biomaterials is very long, involving basic research, process creation, complete sets of equipment, transportation and distribution, design and production of end products and so on. China is shifting from export-driven to domestic demand-driven, and the "domestic demand" of energy and raw materials is strong, which inevitably calls for a huge oil substitution industry.
Alternative energy: Replacing oil will make China's resource situation from short to long.
-The second bioenergy development survey
Judging from the current research level at home and abroad, there are still many technical uncertainties in fuel cell vehicles, electric vehicles and hydrogen-powered vehicles, and it is still unknown when they will be put into operation. The cost of hybrid electric vehicles is high, and the consumption of refined oil is still the main factor. On the other hand, the application of petroleum is not only the driving force of transportation, but also the chemical products such as ethylene derived from it are the basic materials that are more widely used than steel. Therefore, the development of bioenergy is the only way to solve the problems of automobile fuel and energy and raw materials in the middle and long term after the oil age.
At present, bio-energy technology is relatively mature in the world, and the ways to replace oil are: grain, straw and other plants. -Fermentation-ethanol-automotive oil, ethylene, nontoxic solvents and hundreds of chemical raw materials. The other is to use inferior edible oil and jatropha curcas seeds to directly process and produce high-quality automotive diesel oil. No matter what kind of biomass conversion, it is the "long leg" of China resources. Developing bioenergy is the best opportunity for a large agricultural country and "oil-deficient and coal-rich" resources to change from short to long.
Developing oil substitution industry is conducive to solving the problems of agriculture, countryside and farmers.
The problems of agriculture, rural areas, farmers, environment and resources are the key to achieve balanced development and build a harmonious society in a country with a population of 654.38 billion. The establishment of a huge "oil substitution" energy system not only provides a good opportunity for China's agricultural industrialization and rural urbanization, but also is an important driving force for China's long-term development and the best starting point for solving these outstanding problems. One of the most famous agricultural scientists in China, Shi Yuanchun, an academician of China Academy of Sciences and China Academy of Engineering, recently publicly proposed that farmers in China should "plant a green big green tree".
According to the investigation of the relevant units of the Ministry of Science and Technology, sugarcane and cassava in the south of China, wheat and rice in the central and eastern regions, potatoes and corn in the north, and tung oil in the west. Jatropha curcas, sweet potatoes in arid areas, etc. They are all good raw materials for processing converted fuel alcohol and biodiesel. Jatropha curcas seeds contain 50% oil, which is a good material for producing biodiesel. There are 654.38+ten thousand mu in southwest China, and the planting area will reach1ten thousand mu by 20 10. Wang Hongguang, director of the Biotechnology Center of the Ministry of Science and Technology, told reporters in an interview: At present, the processing and transformation of surplus agricultural and sideline products in China can truly "recreate the anniversary", which is equivalent to 50 million tons of crude oil. If the straw burned by farmers every year is collected and processed to produce ethanol instead of automobile oil, the total amount can reach 60 million to 654.38 billion tons. Li Rongjie, chairman of Anhui Fengyuan Group, who has begun to replace petroleum products with processed biomass products, estimates that it is profitable to process biomass energy into fuel alcohol, biodiesel, ethylene and polyester as long as the oil is not less than $35 per barrel.
Wang Jingkang, an academician of China Academy of Engineering and a professor at Tianjin University, and other experts pointed out: "The predictions of many countries and organizations in the world show that renewable energy will exceed 50% in one-time energy consumption in the middle of this century." Once bio-hydrogen production, which is difficult in science and technology, is put into use, the prospect of bio-energy will be broader. Fortunately, the biomass energy-rich areas in China are often poor areas and pure agricultural areas, and the economic construction is relatively backward. Developing biomass energy is not only of economic significance, but also of great significance to solving agricultural industrialization, rural surplus labor transfer, rural industrialization and building a harmonious society. Professor Shi Yuanchun, a famous agricultural expert in China, and other experts stressed that the development of biomass energy should achieve "four birds with one stone": first, the comprehensive utilization of biomass energy can solve the problem of increasing farmers' income; Second, developing small and medium-sized processing enterprises can accelerate agricultural industrialization and rural urbanization; Third, the poor rural areas in the central and western regions with abundant biomass energy and land resources will form a biomass energy enterprise cluster in China, thus promoting the process of a harmonious society; Fourthly, combined with the adjustment of China's energy strategy, China's self-owned brand automobile industry can consider producing bio-energy automobile products that adapt to China's energy system, catch up in the process of automobile popularization and enhance its competitiveness.
Developing bioenergy and raw materials can achieve "four noes"
Energy and raw materials are the supporting systems of the country and society. Will the strategic adjustment touch the social foundation and various interests, thus causing greater social shocks? The China Biotechnology Development Center of the Ministry of Science and Technology has conducted a lot of investigation and research, and Wang Hongguang, director of the center, summed it up as "four noes": "Do not compete with people for grain, with grain for land, with traditional industries, and with developed countries for resources".
"Don't compete with people for grain and land for traditional industries" is a new feature of developing biomass energy utilization in China, which has been emphasized by researchers from the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, Tsinghua University and Beijing Agricultural University. Wang Hongguang, director of the Biotechnology Development Center, Li Shizhong, a professor at Beijing Agricultural University, and Xiu Zhilong, dean of the School of Life Sciences of Dalian University of Technology, said: China has great potential in scientific utilization of grain. Every year, aged grain and feed grain are about 654.38 billion tons, and a considerable 50 million tons of crude oil can be obtained through processing and transformation, and 30% will continue to be used as feed. The current situation is that 80 million tons of grain are directly used as drinks every year, and more than 30 million tons of starch are wasted. According to the data provided by Henan Tianguan Fuel Ethanol Co., Ltd., only the substances extracted from wheat bran have the same value as wheat. At present, the raw materials for developing bioenergy and biomaterials are plants with wide distribution and high utilization value. For example, the yield of sweet corn studied by scientists in China can reach 70 tons per hectare, which can produce more than 6 tons of fuel alcohol. Cassava, sugarcane, Jerusalem artichoke, potato and sweet potato in the south. These inedible plants are the best raw materials to be converted into bioenergy and materials. In addition, China now wastes 654.38 billion tons of crop straws and forestry wastes every year, which is equivalent to more than 654.38 billion tons of fuel gasoline.
As far as the land resources for developing bioenergy and materials are concerned, there are about 4 billion mu of low-quality and barren slopes and beaches in China, which can be used to grow suitable species; There are 300 million winter fallow fields in the south of Huaihe River, which are used to grow rape to produce biodiesel, which is equivalent to "rebuilding Daqing". According to experts, the research on processing crops and potato plants replacing petroleum products in China has a long history, rich sources and great potential. As early as the Seventh Five-Year Plan and the Eighth Five-Year Plan, ministries and universities organized scientists to tackle key problems and found many inexhaustible plant germplasm. If there is a stable market, the conditions for promoting planting are quite mature. A professor from Dalian University of Technology planted hundreds of thousands of acres of Jerusalem artichoke (Jerusalem artichoke) on the seashore of Shandong, which grew well. This plant is planted by farmers in the north and south of China on a small scale. On barren land, saline-alkali land and tidal flat can grow well and have strong sand-fixing ability. Plant once and grow naturally. Dig its tuber every year, and the next year it will grow by itself. The yield per mu can reach 10 thousand Jin. The sugar content is more than 30% of that of sugarcane, and the sweetness is twice that of sucrose. Combined with the "Mountain River Reconstruction" project, a large number of plants rich in biomass energy can be planted in China. Jatropha curcas and other woody oil plants in southwest China have developed rapidly, and the oil content of seeds has reached 50%, which is currently 6.5438+million mu and 6.5438+million mu in 2065.438+00.