Is the current valuation of China auto stocks, especially new energy, too high? However, the high prosperity of the styrene market has brought new impetus to capital.
Text/"Autobots" Rolling
Last week, a roller coaster was staged in the A-share car sector.
As the leader of vehicle stocks and upstream industrial chain, Changan Automobile and Tianqi Lithium Industry have driven the automobile sector to fluctuate greatly. Changan automobile first had two daily limit boards in a row, and almost fell on Thursday; Tianqi lithium industry is even more unpredictable, with abnormal fluctuations.
the time goes back to October 18. The executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that the strategy of expanding domestic demand should be implemented to further promote consumption. Promoting consumption mentioned "three essentials": first, we should expand automobile consumption; Second, we must expand the consumption of home appliances; Third, we must boost food and beverage consumption.
To expand automobile consumption, including: encouraging all localities to adjust and optimize purchase restriction measures, and increasing the number plate index; We will carry out a new round of vehicles going to the countryside and replacing them with old ones, encourage qualified areas to buy trucks of 3.5 tons or less and passenger cars of 1.6 liters or less for rural residents, and subsidize residents to eliminate cars with emission standards below national standard 3 and buy new ones.
The news was released on the evening of October 8th, which is supposed to be a big plus. On 11/19, while the three major stock indexes of A-shares generally rose, the automobile sector did not rise but fell, and both the upstream industrial chain and vehicle manufacturers fell. Among them, Changan Automobile and Tianqi Lithium Industry led the decline, falling by 9.31% and 6.16% respectively. The K-line of Changan Automobile presents a huge shadow. The single-day turnover of 7.17 billion yuan has reached a record high since Changan went public, and the biggest drop on that day exceeded 1.3%.
But we can't just look at this day, because in the previous five trading days, the cumulative increase of Changan Automobile reached 38.7%, especially on 17 and 18, the turnover broke through new highs one after another, accumulating a large number of short-term profit-making discs. Tianqi Lithium Industry was affected by the default risk of corporate bonds, and its share price fluctuated greatly.
"Autobots" believes that due to the large short-term increase, some auto stocks need a technical correction, especially the leading Changan Automobile and BYD. Some investors use policies to boost shipments and lock in profits. This is the reason why it fell instead of rising on 18. In other words, in the capital market, there has been obvious controversy about the current position of the automobile industry.
whether you buy or sell, you always have to make sense. The key is to see which side's reason is more "hard". Recently, A shares are tepid, but the commodity market is extremely hot, among which the most concerned is not iron ore but styrene. Styrene is widely used in household appliances and industrial products, and it is an important raw material for hot cars and household appliances.
After the "Eleventh" National Day holiday, in more than a month, the styrene futures rose by over 41%, and the spot price rose by 51%, and the price per ton broke through the 11,111 yuan mark. Even so, enterprises have no choice but to wait and see, but hoard a lot of goods, which directly leads to the shortage of spot, and many refineries raise prices by 1111 yuan per ton in a single day.
spot is stronger than futures, and the rise of styrene is supported by its demand logic. On the one hand, domestic demand for automobiles and household appliances at home and abroad is growing; On the other hand, it was the foreign epidemic that led to the transfer of orders for consumer goods to China, which led to the explosive growth of orders for raw materials downstream of styrene. Especially on 11/18, the executive meeting of the State Council specifically mentioned the promotion fees for automobiles and household appliances. Some organizations believe that even next year, the demand for styrene will remain strong.
The madness of commodity market directly affects the stock market. On October 21th, the top two gainers in the A-share industry sector were the non-ferrous sector and the automobile sector, and the steel sector also rushed to the seventh place, apparently following the futures market. Among them, the automobile sector rose by 3.61%, and a Changyang swallowed the Yinxian on October 9. Zhongtong Bus, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Jinbei Automobile, Jianghuai Automobile and Wanxiang Qian Chao had daily limit, while BYD and Great Wall Motor rose by 8.93% and 6.71% respectively.
In the U.S. stock market, Weilai, Xpeng Motors and LI were not negatively affected on October 9 and 21, and all three companies rose continuously. Xpeng Motors rose by 14% and 12% respectively in these two trading days, and its market value reached $41 billion. Weilai's market value reached US$ 66.4 billion, firmly biting BYD, and taking the second place in China vehicle listed company.
Is the current valuation of China auto stocks, especially new energy, too high? People inevitably have disputes over the valuation of popular auto stocks, such as BYD's dynamic P/E ratio of 111 times. Weilai's market value exceeds BMW's. What does it mean to force Mercedes? The bulls think that new energy leading car companies are expected to replace the current international car oligarchs in the future.
Due to the recent shortage of upstream raw material styrene, it has brought new impetus to capital. To what extent can the automobile sector, new energy and the upstream of the automobile industry rise? It seems that it is not easy to say now. (Text/"Autobot" Rolling, part of the picture source network) Copyright statement This article is the exclusive original manuscript of Autobot, and the copyright belongs to Autobot.
This article comes from the author of Chejia, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.