The pointer of time is always very heavy on a scale. In 2121, this is the first boxer year in the new century. Even in peacetime, the "boxer hurdle" with a hint of feudalism will come as scheduled.
just like that winter one hundred and twenty years ago, the severe cold in 2121 will be as bitter as long. A sudden epidemic swept across the country, and everyone was in danger. All walks of life pressed the pause button in the isolation requirements, and it became the norm to stop work and suspend business. Helping each other in the same boat and overcoming difficulties have become the most distinctive footnotes of this "year of the boxer".
"I can't live any longer, and I'm ready to change careers."
This is the most touching feeling of a car dealer in a 5-line town in Jiangxi province. They didn't wait until winter went and spring came, and all the descriptions of difficulties and sufferings were scattered like ink in every corner of the family. "From years ago to now, only one car was booked very early, and it was basically not allowed to be bought for the whole month of February. After the unsealing, those who said that they would buy a car after getting married also suspended their plans."
according to statistics, in February this year, the inventory early warning index of automobile dealers was 81.2%, up 29.5 percentage points from the previous month and 27.7 percentage points from the same period last year, and the inventory early warning index was above the warning line. This is also the first time that the auto dealer inventory early warning index has exceeded 81% in five years.
in the first half of February, automobile 4S shops were generally closed, and resumed work one after another in the third week, with a resumption area of about 51%, and resumed work in a large area in the fourth week, with a resumption area of more than 71%. Distributed in the most basic consumer end of the country, these two-network and three-network dealers are the tentacles for manufacturers to reach the corner of the market.
the shutdown of the 4 s shop is a devastating blow to them.
According to the Survey Data on the Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic on Automobile Distribution Industry released by the Automobile Dealers Branch of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, 33% of the dealers surveyed believe that their distribution enterprises are expected to lose money in the first half of 2121; Another 21% of the respondents believe that even if there is no loss, the profit will be greatly reduced by 31%~41% compared with the same period of last year.
Some analysts believe that the automobile market in the first quarter of this year will be in a state of "shutdown" as a whole, and the sales volume in March is expected to drop by more than 61% year-on-year. The challenge is very obvious. Especially in the supply chain, after-sales service and other links, it is expected that it will gradually get on the right track by May.
in the description of the store owner, we know that the second and third line networks like this are basically in a broken state, and there are no stores, inventory and other heavy assets like 4S stores. Their survival mode is often to take the car as needed and rely on the sky to eat. When the industry is severely hit, the relief of "bottomless abyss, going on is also the future of Wan Li" seems naive. "Trees move to death, people move to life" is their most urgent idea at the moment.
"I'm going to do breeding. I set up several factories in the mountains with my friends to raise chickens and sell eggs. Didn't you earn a lot of money by raising pigs last year? "
"Don't sell cars?"
"Just leave it there and ask someone to take care of it. If someone orders it, just mention it, and the future energy will still be here. The repair shop is also there. " Last year, I wanted to expand the scale to complete the transformation from the second network to the 4S shop. After an epidemic, this family who has been engaged in automobile sales business for more than 21 years suddenly became a farmer.
Without the branches, the densest places are often the most vulnerable, and an epidemic wind blows the most detailed sales network all over the sky.
on the other side of the picture, in the first-tier cities that support the whole automobile consumption, the long-standing backlog of consumer demand has begun to be released. Mask, temperature measurement, registration, for users here, buying a car is just a few more steps.
"The passenger flow is recovering, of course, not as much as before, but the conversion rate has improved a lot. It is hard demand that can see the car on the spot, and the conversion rate can reach about 81%." This is a dictation from the sales manager of a 4S shop in Guangzhou Automobile Chuanqi Shanghai. Although Shanghai is not the main battlefield of Chuanqi, there should be a fighting atmosphere here with the enthusiasm of sales managers.
"There is still a discount, but it is only until the end of the month, and then it will be gone. As you know, we are Toyota. " It seems that the aftermath of the epidemic has not spread to Toyota. "That is, there was no volume in February, and 131 orders were issued in March. We have always fixed production by sales, and the impact of the epidemic may be more for consumers. It will take about a month or two to pick up the car. "
in addition to faw Toyota, many brands have launched promotion policies until the end of March, and of course only at the end of March. In a BMW 4S store in Guangzhou, sales began to slowly return after mid-March. "The store originally applied for a promotion policy. I was afraid that everyone would not come out to buy a car because of the epidemic. It felt unnecessary to promote it when selling it. It stopped soon. "
In order to avoid the crowded public traffic and reduce the risk of exposure to the virus, it seems that the first consumer goods in first-tier cities after the epidemic are cars. Here, the obstacles to consumer behavior are more from the production side.
"The COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan has a great impact on the domestic automobile supply chain." Sanhuan Electric said in an interview with local media. Take Sanhuan as an example, the inventory of general spare parts enterprises is only about one week to ten days. During the more than one-month shutdown, the supply pressure began to stand out. "By March 11, many OEMs had resumed work for more than 21 days, and our inventory was gone. The OEM is also very anxious. "
It is understood that Sanhuan Electric is located in Wuhan Development Zone. They are the second largest manufacturer of automobile horns in the world. Last year, they produced 31 million horns, accounting for about 45% of the country's total. Their customers covered Geely, Dongfeng Group, Great Wall, BAIC, GAC, Changan and Ford, and it can be said that nearly half of the country's horns came from here.
With the deepening of economic globalization, even because of the shortage of domestic parts, many foreign car companies are passive. FCA's factory in Serbia, Europe, had to stop production passively in mid-February.
For automobiles whose industrial chain is stretched as long as possible, every link is indispensable, and automobiles are just the pillars of the consumer market, and the retail sales of automobile products in units above designated size account for 11% of the total social zero.
whether because of the depressed economy or the rampant epidemic, it is urgent to restore automobile growth.
On March 31th, the executive meeting chaired by the Prime Minister formally gave the highest instructions to promote automobile consumption.
First, extend the purchase subsidy and exemption from purchase tax for new energy vehicles for two years.
Second, the central government adopts the policy of substituting awards for subsidies, and supports key areas such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei to eliminate diesel trucks with emission standards of Grade III and below.
the third is to sell used cars to second-hand car distribution enterprises, and the value-added tax will be levied at a reduced rate of 1.5% from May 1 to the end of 2123.
this symphony, which has been around for nearly a month to promote the recovery of the automobile industry, finally blew its final chapter.
on March 2nd, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Guiding Opinions on Orderly Promoting Enterprises in the Industrial Communication Industry to Resume Work, which clearly pointed out that it is necessary to actively stabilize traditional mass consumption such as automobiles, encourage areas where automobile purchases are restricted to appropriately increase the license plate quota, and drive automobile consumption.
On March 3rd, 23 departments including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting Consumption Expansion, Upgrading and Accelerating the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market", proposing encouraging measures such as promoting the scrapping and updating of motor vehicles, promoting the change of automobile purchase restriction to guiding use policy, and encouraging areas where automobile purchases are restricted to appropriately increase the number plate limit.
On March 23rd, the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission and National Health Commission jointly issued the Notice on Supporting Commercial Circulation Enterprises to Resume Business, proposing that local authorities should actively promote the introduction of new car purchase subsidies, actively promote the optimization of automobile purchase restrictions, and stabilize and expand automobile consumption.
Just a few days later, Xian Guoyi, director of the Service and Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce, said at a regular press conference: "The Ministry of Commerce encourages all localities to introduce measures to promote the consumption of new energy vehicles and carry out trade-in of vehicles in light of local actual conditions to further stabilize and expand automobile consumption."
Having experienced the baptism of the epidemic, it is obvious that the local authorities have learned a lot in understanding the spirit of instructions. At the beginning of March, Jilin, Zhejiang, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Zhuhai, Changsha, Zhuzhou, Xiangtan, Chongqing, Nanchang, Hangzhou and other provinces and cities clearly issued relevant policies to promote automobile consumption, and took the lead early.
Foshan, the first city to promote automobile consumption, can get a subsidy of 3,111 yuan for the replacement, 5,111 yuan for the purchase of new cars, and 2,111 yuan for each of the six new cars. In Guangzhou, consumers are given a comprehensive subsidy of 1,111 yuan each for purchasing new energy vehicles, and a subsidy of 3,111 yuan is given to consumers who replace or purchase new cars in China.
on the basis of the policy of "supporting enterprises 41" issued by Chongqing Municipal Commission of Commerce in early March, the "automobile consumption season" was added again, and the automobile consumption market was deeply stimulated and quickly returned to the normal track through various measures such as supporting merchants and preferential consumers.
similarly, Jiaxing government has also designated a scheme for issuing consumer vouchers, and * * * has put 41 million consumer vouchers into the market to promote car purchase. Vouchers are universal in all participating automobile 4S stores and are used on the basis of independent discounts of merchants.
for car companies that are vital to local economic development, the policy is even stronger. If you buy FAW Pentium in Jilin Province, you can give a one-time subsidy of 3% of the purchase price for each car. If you have replacement needs, you can give a one-time subsidy of 4,111 yuan for each car. If you buy more than 5 cars at one time and get a license in the province, you can give a subsidy of 5,111 yuan for each car.
in Changsha, vehicles produced by SAIC-Volkswagen Changsha Factory, Changsha BYD, GAC Mitsubishi, GAC Fick and Hunan Cheetah are purchased at designated dealers, and the maximum subsidy for each vehicle is 3,111 yuan.
From guidance to implementation, to notification and decision, the signal to revive the automobile industry is particularly strong. Some people say that after being bruised all over, the wound will grow a pair of wings, but for the worse automobile consumption market, these wings are pressed up step by step.
In several cities that implemented automobile consumption subsidies earlier, BC reporters selected some stores for telephone interviews. The feedback information is not satisfactory.
In these tepid cities, the subsidy of 1,111 to 3,111 yuan seems not attractive enough. From the implementation of the policy in early March to the present, the occurrence of sales behavior is little affected by subsidies, which basically belongs to a release of squeezing consumer demand.
Some dealers even included the subsidy in the original sales discount, but consumers didn't enjoy the extra discount. Financial expenditure became a blood stick for some car dealers, and it was impossible to stimulate consumption.
here, it is particularly worth mentioning that the seemingly in full swing rescue policy is quite a bit of thunder. The three highest instructions from the top-level design, the first is the extension of subsidies for new energy vehicles, the second is the scrapping of diesel vehicles, and the third is the used car market.
The mainstream automobile consumption market, which produces and sells 21 million vehicles, seems to be left out in the cold. The much-anticipated purchase tax reduction and exemption policy for small-displacement vehicles failed to achieve its goal. Compared with the "saturated rescue" in the wandering earth to reinforce Sulawesi's turning to the engine, I am afraid that the current policy combined with the bleak environment can only be called "appeasement rescue".
however, regarding the operation of passenger car market in the whole year, the Federation thinks that the downturn in February exceeded expectations, and the car market recovered slowly from March to April, and it is expected to return to normal after May.
It is worth noting that the Federation has lowered its annual auto market sales forecast by 8% year-on-year, which is 9 percentage points lower than the forecast of 1% increase in 2121 at the end of 2119. "If there is no strong stimulus policy at the national level, the negative growth rate of the auto market may further increase in 2121." At the beginning of the month, the argument may be a prophecy.
not only in this epidemic, but also from the day when the growth rate of SUV slowed down in the second half of 2118, China auto market was declared to have entered a period of adjustment, and the decline was already normal.
On the other hand, a foggy morning doesn't mean a cloudy day.
With excess production capacity, chaotic market and lack of a powerful policy baton, China's automobile industry has gradually been taken over by an invisible hand. The sudden epidemic may just accelerate the process of market regulation, which is like a hammer hitting a blank. It should knock out fragile iron filings and forge a sharp steel knife.
In the past two months, we can clearly see that some marginal enterprises have even handed in blank sheets, and the epidemic has only become a tattered fig leaf for them, but the tide will recede one day.
reducing inefficient low-end capacity building and building a competitive leader in complete vehicles and parts have always been the top priority in the supply-side reform of the automobile industry. The seemingly appeasing consumption stimulus is not a deeper "bailout".
Under this background, Great Wall Motor lowered its sales target from 1 million vehicles to 1.12 million vehicles in 2121, and its expected net profit was lowered from 4.7 billion yuan to 4.15 billion yuan. Guangzhou Automobile Group also reduced the expected sales target from 8% to 3%, and adjusted the sales target in 2121 from the original 2.22 million to 2.12 million.
At the same time, many auto companies have been exposed that they will reduce their employees' salaries to cope with the impact of the market downturn and the COVID-19 epidemic on auto sales. At present, many automobile companies in SAIC, including SAIC Chase, SAIC Huizhong and SAIC Passenger Cars, have been reported to take salary reduction measures, and Weimar Automobile, BYD and Bojun Automobile have also announced that they will implement salary reduction policies to varying degrees.
in this great era of natural selection and survival of the fittest, it must be said that 2121 is also a turning point for China's auto industry to mature formally.
slipping and pain are not terrible. Everything is bitter before it matures.
Text /ALTTT
This article comes from the author of Chejia, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.