To be honest, I started analyzing in 2015 that this outcome would occur. We need to take a moment to analyze why various industries are currently turning out to have crisis edges. This is directly related to our indiscriminate development/expansion/acquisition of the industry/collapse of the scope of business of the industry, the competition for profitability, a rush.
First, 40 years of reform and opening up, all kinds of industries in our country have been unprecedented development, to 2011 (10 years ago) or so, all kinds of industries have been developed for 30 years, but also after three decades of oversupply. Various industries can be said to have developed to the peak, bottleneck. In addition, the various needs of society is gradually saturated, people's daily needs purchasing power began to gradually decline.
Secondly, due to the enterprises want to expand their business scope, want to grasp the initiative of the market sales, invisible generated by the merger of enterprises and cross-industry operations gradually increased, resulting in rising competition and declining profits. The business circle is more and more chaotic, the market disruption can not be normal development, to this point there is no one enterprise wants to put away, narrow the scope of business, are you looking at me, I look at you.
Third, 40 years of reform and opening up, the country's development focus is also centered on urban construction, urban development has now formed a scale, all aspects of the builders in the five to six years one after another to leave the city, to the need to develop the city or township to make a living, some also returned to the rural areas around the business, so that in the city of the mobile population is relatively reduced. The purchasing power of the city also declined. The busy place also began to appear oversupply of goods excess accumulation of the situation.
Fourth, 16 to 17 years of economic transformation, now 3 to 4 years of transition or teething period has arrived. People's awareness of purchasing is relatively high. Online shopping impact brick-and-mortar stores and so on.
It is recommended that we can not think about the development of enterprises according to traditional thinking, ideas and methods to change. Begin to grasp the quality of service, enterprise to do fine and strong, in order to adapt to modern development. This is the enterprise today to consider the primary issue.
Now this status quo enterprise, want to continue to develop, to find the responsibility of the enterprise itself, do not take the gas in the community, to blame the community, to their own detriment, and ultimately to find out why their industry will go out of business. In these years, most of the industry assets shrinkage is normal .......
Personal opinion, if the analysis is not right, please forgive me, thank you!
The biggest impact of the epidemic should be the tourism industry, people are afraid to go out to play, other than the epidemic is not the impact of e-commerce so that many industries as well as brick and mortar stores into a dead end!
An epidemic put a lot of service industry pushed to the edge of the crisis, the main performance is as follows:
First: the tourism industry, travel agencies bear the brunt, followed by B&B, especially B&B, whether it is a scenic area of the B&B, hotels, hostels have no source of customers, all over the country are advocating the New Year on the spot, do not run around, do not go to visit friends and relatives, know a lot of B&B bosses lose money in the dry simmering, do not know! Out of the road where, especially in the first two years into the B&B industry, thought the B&B is a piece of blue ocean, but currently presented in front of the eyes is indeed a pond.
Second: the catering industry, for the end of 2019, invested huge sums of money into the catering industry are basically closed at a loss, there are many years of doing this year also closed, a friend of the first two years of catering enterprises to do the renovation, each year is tens of millions of output, this year, also at a loss, because there is no catering enterprises to renovate the reason is that the catering industry does not have a source of customers, so catering is also closed down the closure of the closure of the closure of the closure of the closure of the closure of the closure, no The closure of the store also narrowed to reduce expenditure.
Third: education and training industry, the training industry is also struggling in the storm, as long as the outbreak, in order to control the epidemic as soon as possible, the immediate suspension of all offline training, to reduce the possibility of all the aggregated epidemic.
I'm a fan of the yu mother, engaged in the industry for training + insurance. This year's epidemic, many people say insurance will be good to do, in fact, not. If it is only a small risk, part of the population, it will soon be over, then this time, touching the scene, some of the wait-and-see will buy insurance. And this year, affected by many industries, wages are not enough to live, the job is gone, but also what money to buy insurance. All know that in case of infection will cost a lot of money, and there may be sequelae, but there is no money, how to do?
So this year the insurance industry is not as good as before.
For training, especially psychological training, I believe that the importance of mental health has increased this year, but because of the avoidance of aggregation, so there are many fewer training courses, at least once a year, parents' meetings, have been changed to online. Many courses are also gone.
A lot of people who specialize in training have changed careers, because psychology is considered a luxury, are under pressure, but have to go first to make money, in order to talk about health.
I hope next year is better than this year, but the probability is that it will be worse than this year. Be prepared to suffer, and everything will be fine
The first affected industry
The movie industry
The first time we know a term called "New Year's Eve", perhaps, is from Feng Xiaogang.
In fact, the movie for us, is a not too easy to resist the temptation. After all, between light and shadow, those childhood dreams and visions, hero complex, and even a stolen fantasy, seem to be able to meet in the movie. Although time changes, the aesthetics are also changing, but the New Year's Eve, with the family to watch a few happy movies, relax the 365 days of the collapse of the nerves, is always a beautiful treat.
Every year, the New Year's Eve movie is a battle of the gods, but this year, it is not optimistic. The entire New Year's Eve file in the annual box office revenue occupies an important position, only in 2019 accounted for 9% of the total annual revenue of 64.266 billion yuan. 2020 this "Wuhan epidemic", not only threatens our health, for the Chinese film and television market has been in the winter for many years, undoubtedly adding to the snow frost.
Perhaps we all owe a movie ticket to 2020.
The second industry affected
Catering industry
Food is the most important thing. As an industry that meets the basic needs of "clothing, food, housing and transportation", the word "heaven" highlights the importance of the catering industry. The door is always open to the seven things that can't be bypassed. This year, the busy New Year's Eve dinner subsided, should be the most lively restaurant, but basically empty. Some time ago, the founder of Xibei Jia Guolong's words have attracted widespread attention, but also the cost of the enterprise dilemma and business problems. This Spring Festival, more than a billion people were forced to stay at home, with no human contact, no family or friends to meet, and naturally no mingling. Worse still, many scheduled wedding banquets and business contacts were canceled, a large number of restaurants to stop business, layer by layer under the transmission, the impact of the catering industry, can be imagined.
The third affected industry
Transportation industry
SARS in 2003, although also affected, but there is no large-scale isolation prevention and control. Right now, in order to avoid their own infection, reduce the probability of contact with infectious agents, all over the world have to implement strict control of population movement. People also reduce travel, visiting relatives and other activities, the country's high-speed rail, waterways, highways, air transport passenger flow has declined significantly, in order to support the epidemic, a number of companies to implement the refund of tickets free of charge, the relevant enterprises have losses. Many places have implemented "quarantine" measures, and many cities with serious epidemics have even directly "closed the city", the impact of transportation is all-encompassing, and everyone is involved. We look forward to the epidemic quickly get under control, so that the stagnant everything, once again flow.
The 4th affected industry
Retail
The new coronavirus is a highly fatal respiratory infectious disease transmitted by air and droplet, which has caused a severe impact on the service industry where the population is concentrated, and this is most typical of the retail industry.
On the other hand, the retail industry is in fact part of the country's infrastructure to cope with major disasters. It is also worthwhile for us to think about how to give full play to the convenience and pro-people nature of community commerce, and to play an important role in food supply, stabilizing people's hearts, and maintaining social order during extraordinary times.
The 5th affected industry
Tourism
Compared to other industries, tourism is a more sensitive industry in terms of demand elasticity. In other words, tourism is an optional consumption item, which is an extension and expansion of services after people have satisfied their basic needs. In Maslow's five-layer model of needs, tourism represents a higher level of needs. The company's main goal is to provide the best possible service to its customers, and the company's goal is to provide the best possible service to its customers, and the company's goal is to provide the best possible service to its customers, and the company's goal is to provide the best possible service to its customers, and the company's goal is to provide the best possible service to its customers, and the company's goal is to provide the best possible service to its customers, and the company's goal is to provide the best possible service to its customers.
The 6th affected industry
Manufacturing
In order to prevent the spread of the epidemic, the national Spring Festival holiday was extended by 3 days, and the start of work in Hubei Province was not earlier than February 13, and the resumption of work in some provinces and cities was further delayed by one week, which made the operating rhythm of the manufacturing industry be disrupted. After the end of the Spring Festival holiday, localities may face the problem of "labor shortage", at the same time, the reduction of consumer demand, part of the economic activities are interrupted, the workers return to the city and the factory resumption time is not uniform, but also on the organization of the production of adverse effects.
The 7th affected industry
Crude oil and commodities
The spread of the new coronavirus has led to a marked rise in risk aversion in the market, with the VIX, known as the Panic Index, once soaring to a 3-month high. With the outbreak, spread and spread of the epidemic, since January 20, 2020, the international price of crude oil fell rapidly, Brent crude oil once fell below $ 60 per barrel. Under the influence of the epidemic, the king of commodities, crude oil, and the king of metals, copper, have seen a sustained killing. At the same time, the transportation is blocked, will produce some pressure on the domestic consumption of crude oil and refined oil products. Regarding the international crude oil market holding losses due to China's epidemic, investment bank Barclays is reported to have said that the market may have overreacted, and that the actual impact of the coronavirus on the economy may be less severe compared to the SARS outbreak in 2003 because of the measures taken by the Chinese government.
The 8th affected industry
The export industry
China is the world's top merchandise exporter, China's economy is pivotal in the global chain, and exports, as one of the economic troika, pulls the whole body.
Most of the demand for exports comes from overseas, while production is at home. This time, the World Health Organization will be classified as "public health emergencies of international concern" (PHEIC), which means that the event is "serious, sudden, unusual and unexpected", as the international economic and trade exchanges of the knobs, exports are also subject to a certain degree of impact and influence. Exports, which are the knob of international trade and commerce, have also been affected to a certain extent. At the same time, some countries may consider reducing or suspending imports of commodities related to the epidemic, and after the holiday season due to some of the major labor export provinces workers can not return home on time, some export-oriented enterprises may still be the original export orders will be delivered on schedule, the wages of workers still have to pay, which also puts forward a new challenge to the operation of the enterprise.
The 9th affected industry
Real estate
On the evening of January 26th, the China Real Estate Association (CREA) urgently issued a call to its members and the whole industry to temporarily suspend sales activities at sales offices, and resume them after the epidemic. Due to the chain impact of the epidemic, in the short term, the overall economic development slowed down, people's incomes are lower, the expectations of housing prices are also synchronized to reduce. People buy houses for the good of life, but they don't risk their lives to look at them. When people no longer look at the house, no longer buy a house, the transaction will cease to exist. Coupled with the current "housing without speculation" overall control policy, the real estate industry's investment attributes and financial attributes continue to reduce, will allow prices to rise limited, but also conducive to the stability of housing prices.
The 10th affected industry
Banking industry
Compared with 2003, China's economic output has long been incomparable, which means that the entire economic system is far more capable of fighting risks as well as coping with major disasters. However, the current point in time, the macro-economy is also facing new challenges and impacts, on the one hand, we are in a new and old economic momentum switching gear, to achieve high-quality development, we need to find new industries to carry the new development momentum.
1, the catering industry
Spring Festival is a year of consumption season, many restaurant companies before the reserve a large number of ingredients, ready to make a fortune. The epidemic hit, 1.4 billion Chinese people were forced to stay at home grounded for more than a month, there is no human contact, no friends and relatives to get together, naturally, there is no drink. Many of the scheduled New Year's Eve dinners and banquets were canceled, and a large number of restaurants and hotels closed their doors.
2, the tourism industry
Because of the outbreak of the epidemic, many originally determined travel itinerary had to be canceled, many tourist attractions are canceled in the Spring Festival or even shut down, such as the Forbidden City, the National Library, Jiuzhaigou, the Great Wall and so on.
In previous years, the Spring Festival in Beijing temple fair is a beautiful scenery, this year, but also the same canceled such activities; Hainan Island's tourism economy is bound to be not a small impact.
3, the aviation industry
The World Health Organization officially listed China's new coronavirus outbreak as an international public **** health emergency. Many countries began canceling or suspending flights from and to China. Originally bustling air terminals, airports appear increasingly cold, foot traffic slumped severely.
4, the hotel industry
The hotel industry may face a major reshuffle and restructuring after this sudden epidemic; many hotels and low-end hotels with insufficient capital chains will face closure and merger.
Many OTA platforms are facing a wave of hotel order cancellations during this time, and Ctrip and other OTA platforms have seen their share prices plummet; wherever they are, Flying Pig and other platforms are busy working overtime to refund customers for their hotel orders.
5, KTV industry
KTV and movie theaters are the same consumer scenarios, but also are crowded, closed and poorly ventilated places. Young people are faced with the dilemma of choosing between pleasure and life, young people ultimately still resolutely choose the life safety first guidelines.
What I see is that the hotel industry in first-tier cities, in addition to self-holding properties, most have come to the edge of the crisis, and even a lot of them have been transferred in a large number of a certain eight!
Many industries are on the verge of that crisis, think tourism, tourism catering, physical stores, supermarkets, everything with the service-related industries, now belong to the state of suspension, maybe you say ah, you see a store queue ah, or how how how? You see how good their business, you shut down, is your own reasons, in fact, not, good store is indeed good, but you can ask how much loss they have caused in the past two years because of the epidemic, their rent there, our employees there, the staff can not be your immediate opening to find him, or the old staff, and the months, you do not have to pay people to open the money? Overall, I think the impact on the service industry is the biggest, you do not say that the United States what this and that, really to that day, who give you to do? The first thing I'd like to do is to get the best out of the world, and I'd like to do it right.
Other don't know
Urumqi City, the entertainment industry from 2020 there is an epidemic until now do not allow business, many face closure, are struggling to wait for good news. The leaders also consider it, can not prevent the epidemic across the board ah
Epidemic is only a catalyst, there are too many factors. For example: ordinary cell phones to smart phones, entity to the Internet, the Internet from the age of pictures to short videos, and so on. Of course there are other aspects, so I won't explain them all and leave them for discussion. As for how much impact? Conservative estimates, at least ninety percent!!!!