The difficulties are destined to be temporary. China's economy, including China's auto market, has great endogenous power and strong resilience. Neither blindly optimistic, nor overly panic, do a good job of planning, grasp the beat, no matter in the morning or evening, China auto market will be able to reproduce the rainbow.
Text/"Autobots" Guan Hongye
According to the judgment of The Lancet, an authoritative global medical magazine, the novel coronavirus that broke out in China in 2121 was not fatal, and some media reactions were excessive panic. The most important thing to do now is to relax and isolate yourself. We firmly believe that with the strong control of the central government and the overall mobilization of the whole country, we will be able to weather the crisis.
The epidemic situation is likely to be effectively controlled in a short time, but the long-term impact on the economy, especially the automobile industry, may not be so simple.
The Spring Festival holiday, which was originally scheduled to end on October 31th, was postponed to February 3rd, while Guangdong and Jiangsu, which are major economic provinces, delayed the time for enterprises to return to work to February 11. One of the jokes that have been widely spread on the Internet recently seems to be poking fun at this boring time of self-isolation, but for quite a few people, this time is far from just boring, but suffering.
Several friends who are engaged in the catering industry said that this epidemic was a devastating blow to many small and medium-sized restaurants. In many stores, the flow of water dropped to less than 11% year-on-year, which was at a serious loss stage. During the New Year's Day, the single-day running water can reach 511,111 yuan, while on the first day of the New Year's Day, it drops to less than 21,111 yuan. The running water has been greatly reduced, but the cost has doubled. If the epidemic continues, many small and micro enterprises will probably have a headache.
In fact, all industries that provide "people-to-people" offline contact have suffered a lot. For office workers, delaying the return to work means extending the holiday, but for enterprises, especially manufacturing, it is another matter. Delaying the start of construction for one day will cost a day in vain, such as rent, water and electricity, equipment depreciation, capital interest and so on, and the loss is certainly not small.
Take Wuhan, the center of the outbreak, as an example. It has always been the center of automobile manufacturing in China, including Shenlong Automobile, Dongfeng Honda, SAIC-GM, dongfeng fengshen and Dongfeng Renault. Among them, Shenlong has a production capacity of 451,111 vehicles in Wuhan and 611,111 vehicles in Dongfeng Honda. In 2119, Hubei Province produced 2,247,511 vehicles, accounting for nearly 11% of the total national vehicle output.
with the further spread of novel coronavirus, the above-mentioned car companies are evacuating employees from Wuhan. Honda said it would use a government chartered flight to evacuate about 31 Japanese workers and their families from Wuhan. PSA, Nissan and Renault are also taking back foreign employees and their families from Wuhan. In fact, it is not only Wuhan, but also Volkswagen requires about 3,511 employees in Beijing to work at home for two weeks from February 3 to February 7. Toyota announced that its factory in China will be closed before February 11.
under-starting, the whole vehicle enterprise will encounter setbacks, but after all, the base plate is large and the foundation is thick. In contrast, the dealer's life is probably even more difficult. Before and after the implementation of the National Sixth Standard last year, many enterprises have suffered a wave of inventory depreciation losses, and it is obviously difficult to pick up in the first quarter of this year.
It can be expected that this epidemic will have a real impact on China's economy and automobile industry.
some people think that, just like SARS in 2113, the economy will stabilize and rebound soon after the epidemic ends. Looking back on 2113, the GDP growth rate was 11.1% in the first quarter, and dropped by two percentage points in the second quarter after the outbreak of SARS. In the third quarter, with the end of the epidemic, the GDP growth rate returned to 11% again, and the annual GDP growth rate in 2113 was still higher than that in 2112.
The problem is that this is a temporary change. In 2121, China's economic structure, development cycle and automobile market form are completely different from those before 2117.
in terms of economic structure, in 2113, the contribution rates of primary, secondary and tertiary industries to GDP growth were 3.1%, 57.9% and 39% respectively. By 2119, the three major industries accounted for 3.8%, 36.8% and 59.4% respectively, and the service industry accounted for more than half, which became the stabilizer of the economy.
The services such as transportation, tourism, catering and movies, which were most affected by novel coronavirus this time, are expected to recover slowly. After all, even if the epidemic is under control, people's psychological worries will take some time to end. Oxford, Oxford Economic Research Institute, UK? Economics believes that the timing of this round of novel coronavirus outbreak is "extremely bad", because the Spring Festival in previous years was not only the time for hundreds of millions of China people to return home for reunion, but also the peak of social commodity trading in a year. From the peak of consumption to the trough, it is difficult to keep GDP growth at 6 in the first quarter of 2121.
From the development cycle, China ushered in the lowest economic growth rate in the past 31 years in 2119, and the downward pressure on the economy is still not small in 2121. The structural reform on the supply side that has been initiated with great efforts will still be a long-term process. This epidemic is another major challenge after the Sino-US trade war and African swine fever caused China to lose millions of pigs and caused inflation to rise.
Although China and the United States have signed the first-stage trade agreement, this is just a fragile short peace. This is an election year in the United States. If Trump thinks that trade conflicts may enhance his image as a "priority" leader in the United States, he can do almost anything; The increase in the cost of living caused by the increase in pork prices is difficult to be fundamentally alleviated in the visible half year. Analysts, including Morgan Stanley, predict that the downward cycle of China's economy is not over yet, and the market recovery needs considerable patience.
According to the characteristics of the automobile market, the domestic automobile sales in 2113 were 4.25 million, which was at the front end of the blowout period. Since the beginning of this century, China automobile market has entered a vigorous popularization period of nearly ten years. In 2119, the total size of the domestic auto market increased fourfold compared with 2112, reaching 25.72 million, but it has been further reduced after shrinking for two consecutive years. In fact, the first-and second-tier cities are close to saturation, and the fourth-and fifth-tier cities lack consumption power, which is a major feature of China's current economy and automobile market.
Cao Dewang, the king of glass, has previously said that the consumer market in China is far from as strong as expected. Of the total population of 1.4 billion, only 211 million people have actual spending power. Of course, the "consumption" here does not mean the expenses that must be paid in order to maintain the basic life, but the consumption based on further improving the quality of life or meeting higher spiritual needs. In this round of epidemic, if the service industry and small and medium-sized enterprises are affected too much, there will be no hair on the skin, and automobile consumption will be greatly affected.
that is, a month ago, the reporter of Autobots asked the heads of many car companies about the trend of the auto market this year. Although the temperature is different, most people think that it will fluctuate by no more than three percentage points on the basis of "1" growth. In the past two days, everyone's views have been very different. "It's really hard to say."
The difficulties are destined to be temporary. China's economy, including China's auto market, has great endogenous power and strong resilience. Neither blindly optimistic, nor overly panic, do a good job of planning, grasp the beat, no matter in the morning or evening, China auto market will be able to reproduce the rainbow. (Text/"Autobot" Guan Hongye, part of the picture source network) Copyright statement This article is the exclusive original manuscript of Autobot, and the copyright belongs to Autobot.
This article comes from the author of Chejia, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.