But the market performance is still in the recovery stage. According to institutional data, the transaction volume of nine cities including Beijing and Shenzhen in the past 20 days was only 30% of the same period last year. Among them, since February 10 in Beijing, although the turnover has increased since the resumption of work, it is still less than 30% of the turnover before the Spring Festival. Industry insiders expect that most housing enterprises are cautious and it is difficult to return to normal levels in March.
The "pattern adjustment" of local policies has shifted from the supply side to the demand side.
Under the influence of the epidemic, after the resumption of work, the local government's policy implementation for the city showed a trend of differentiation and gradual relaxation. The earliest policy adjustments on the supply side, including Xi 'an and Wuxi adjusting the proportion of land transfer fees or extending the term, and reducing the supervision requirements for pre-sale funds, are all aimed at alleviating the financial pressure of enterprises and promoting enterprises to start construction with land.
However, while many departments have repeatedly stressed that "housing is not speculation", the control efforts in various places are also increasing. The most obvious thing is that the adjustment policies for the demand side have gradually increased in recent years, especially the adjustment of the down payment ratio.
Among them, Zhumadian in Henan used the provident fund to purchase the first suite, and the minimum down payment ratio was lowered from 30% to 20%. Zheshang Bank clearly informed that the down payment loan ratio for non-"restricted" urban households to purchase the first individual housing will be reduced from 30% (30%) to 20% (20%).
Yuan Jian, co-founder of Cheng Jian Ye Sheng, believes that from the policy documents, the minimum down payment of 20% in cities without restrictions on purchases is really not a new policy. 20 16 the central bank has relevant requirements, but few property buyers can really get a 20% down payment before. It can be traced back to the financial crisis in 2008 at the earliest, but after 20 10, the housing credit was obviously tightened, and the 20% down payment was almost gone.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said that reducing the down payment ratio of commercial bank loans is a relatively large policy to stimulate the demand for home purchase, and the impact cannot be underestimated. This policy has a very good demonstration effect and is helpful to activate the housing transaction market in the near future.
In addition to reducing the down payment ratio, on February 27th, Fuzhou proposed to subsidize the buyers of newly-built ordinary commercial houses, and each household can receive 150 yuan per square meter. Housing subsidies have also become a typical policy to stimulate the property market in third-and fourth-tier cities.
In this regard, Yan Yuejin said that in addition to the housing subsidy policies introduced by cities such as Fushun in Sichuan last year, this year, cities including Maanshan and Qinzhou have successively introduced housing subsidy policies, which will help alleviate the pressure on housing sales in third-and fourth-tier cities and play a positive role in stimulating housing transactions.
The turnover of 9 cities including Beijing and Shenzhen has increased, which is far from the normal level.
Under the background of epidemic prevention and resumption of work, the main purpose of introducing different policies in various places is to make the housing enterprises transition smoothly and return to the track of benign and normal operation.
In fact, under the influence of policy support and online and offline combination boxing of housing enterprises, the market shows signs of recovery.
According to Cheng Jian's statistics from Ye Sheng, the average daily transaction volume of newly-built houses in nine cities, including Beijing and Shenzhen, was 5 19 units in the last 20 days (February 6-February 25), but it recovered to 842 units in the last 10 days (February 16-February 25). However, compared with the 20 days before the Spring Festival, the total turnover in the last 20 days only accounts for 2 1%. The proportion of the above nine cities in the past 20 days is only 30% compared with the same period last year.
Although the market is recovering, the transaction volume is still low. According to Beijing data, according to Beijing Zhongyuan statistics, in the first week after the resumption of work (February10-February 16), the transaction volume of new houses in Beijing was 153 billion yuan, which was 8.7 times that of the previous week, but still higher than that of the week before the Spring Festival (February 65438+ 10) It is not difficult to see that with the increase in the intensity of resumption of work, the market turnover showed a slow upward trend.
Compared with 65438+1October 6-65438+ 10/2, which were unaffected by the epidemic in early 2020, the total transaction volume of Beijing's new residential market is about 78160,000 yuan, and the total transaction volume is14/kloc. At present, the transaction volume is less than 30% at that time, which is quite different.
From the current point of view, the market recovery after the resumption of work varies from place to place. According to the original statement, the trading volume of a few cities such as Beijing, Suzhou, Nanjing and Qingdao has recovered well. However, Jinan, Ningbo, Dalian and other places have a slow recovery. The recent peak daily trading volume is only 20% to 30% of the pre-holiday average. The recent peak daily turnover in Shenzhen and Chengdu is only about 50% of last year's average.
Because the previous market entered the freezing period due to the influence of the Spring Festival and the epidemic, the transaction volume in most cities was almost zero, and now it is only a recovery growth. The above analysts believe that in the new housing market, the low turnover may be driven by a few hot projects, and there are obvious deviations and lags in data statistics. But overall, the recovery of market trading volume is still very fragile.
As we all know, the promotion and discount of housing enterprises have been increasing recently, but the actual effect is not necessarily as optimistic as the data.
According to Yuanyuan Construction, it is normal for a small number of buyers to speed up the purchase decision under the background of relaxing expectations of financial policies. For example, a customer in Beijing bought a house of more than 40 million yuan. In fact, the customer had been to this project as early as the end of last year, and the recent epidemic accelerated his decision to buy a house.
Industry: It is still difficult for the market to return to normal level in March.
All localities are pushing the transaction volume back to normal level. In the eyes of many people in the industry, in addition to the adjustment of supply-side policies, land and taxation, local governments will further implement policies that are conducive to the demand side, such as the settlement of talents and the relaxation of household registration. However, to prevent and control financial risks, "housing and not speculating" is still the general direction. In addition to Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other benchmark first-tier and hot cities, the real estate policy orientation of most cities will continue to improve, but it will not cause a rebound in housing prices.
Zou, head of the housing big data project team of the Institute of Finance and Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences and deputy director of the competitiveness simulation laboratory of China Academy of Social Sciences, believes that although the housing demand stimulus policy is easy to implement, it will easily lead to the ups and downs of housing prices in the future and increase macro-financial risks, which need to be strictly controlled.
At present, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that sales offices all over the country are opening one after another, and there are more and more policies to "rescue the market". Compared with the previous "rescue enterprises" policy, since late February, more and more cities have begun to introduce policies to rescue the market, stimulate and subsidize demand. In this case, if the epidemic can be controlled quickly, the real estate market is likely to stabilize soon, and buyers will gradually enter the market.
However, Yuan believes that the transaction volume of typical enterprises and cities in June 5438+ 10 decreased by about 20% year-on-year, and expanded to about 90% in February. For the sake of production and employee safety, most cities are cautious about opening sales offices and resuming work at construction sites. It is expected that the turnover in March will not be less than that in the same period last year.