1. The repayment ability of enterprises in some industries will decline, and the demand for loans will be limited.

The industries most directly affected by the coronavirus epidemic are tourism, catering, retail, transportation, culture and entertainment. The proportion of small and medium-sized enterprises in these industries is large, and the decline of corporate profitability and the weakening of repayment ability will lead to an increase in the non-performing loan ratio of banks. The loan demand of some large and medium-sized enterprises will slow down. Because the coronavirus epidemic has severely hit large and medium-sized transportation industries such as civil aviation and railways, resulting in damage to related industries such as energy, the growth of loan demand in these industries will be limited.

2. The business activities of enterprises are limited, and the growth of deposits slows down.

Because the epidemic prevention and isolation measures in various places will last for a period of time, even if they are lifted, they will have a certain impact on people's psychology and reduce the activity of business activities.

In addition, because the cost of purchasing medical equipment and drugs will increase, employers need to pay the wages of people who can't work normally due to the coronavirus epidemic as usual, which has adversely affected the normal operation of enterprises, and the overall profits of enterprises will be reduced and the deposits will increase less.

Second, from the perspective of retail business.

1. The negative factors of residents' savings deposits are limited.

The coronavirus epidemic will have a certain impact on people's behavior and psychology, thus inhibiting consumer demand and investment demand. However, the impact of the epidemic on the growth of household savings is two-way. On the one hand, due to the decrease in the income of some enterprises and individuals, the overall income of tourism, catering, entertainment and other industries will decline, resulting in the decline of some residents' savings ability;

On the other hand, the slowdown of consumer demand will promote the growth of savings. In addition to general consumer goods, the coronavirus epidemic will increase residents' demand for disinfection and health care products, while offline education, tourism, leisure, entertainment, catering and other expenses will be greatly reduced, resulting in reduced consumption and increased savings.

2. Further promote the development of electronic channels in banks.

Compared with other industries, the electronic level of banking business is already very high. The turnover rate of the entire banking industry is close to 90%, and some banks have reached more than 95%. Except for a few businesses, it is no longer necessary to have face-to-face contact with bank personnel.

This epidemic will further enhance customers' online financial management habits, and at the same time make bank managers seriously consider the value orientation of outlets and accelerate the transformation of bank outlets.

Third, from the perspective of bank operation.

1. The profit margin of banks will be narrowed to some extent.

The coronavirus epidemic will affect the deposit and loan business of banks, and also affect the expansion of intermediary business, leading to the narrowing of profit space and the reduction of profits of commercial banks.

First of all, the profit gained through the deposit-loan spread has declined. The coronavirus epidemic not only reduced the growth of savings, but also significantly slowed down the growth of loans, while the latter was more volatile and lasted longer.

Second, the income from intermediary business will be reduced to a certain extent.

Third, due to the increase of non-performing loans, normal profits have been eroded. With the decrease of new loans, if the original loan principal and interest cannot be recovered as scheduled, the bank's profits will be significantly reduced.

2. Increased management costs

Preventing the coronavirus epidemic will lead to additional expenses for banks. Banks have taken a series of disinfection and health care measures to prevent coronavirus epidemic, such as disinfection of cash, counters and business halls. This also increases the management cost of banks.

However, due to the country's current efforts to control the epidemic, it is expected that the duration of the coronavirus epidemic will be controllable and the overall impact on the economy will be limited. According to the latest estimate of Wei, a professor at Columbia University, the GDP may decrease by 1% in the first quarter of 2020, but it will increase beyond the trend in the rest of this year, and the annual GDP will decrease by about 0. 1%.