First of all, the delivery fee of takeaway platforms are not high now, basically around 6 yuan per order. The reason why the delivery fee is not high is that the consumer's spending power is limited. If you order a 30 yuan dining delivery needs 30 yuan, do you think consumers (under normal circumstances) will buy the bill? And the delivery fee is not high, which also determines that the delivery experience is not good. Just look at the insulated boxes of those riders at Hungry or Meituan. Is it blue? Is it yellow? No - it's black!
Secondly, the nature of the takeaway industry determines that it needs as many merchants as possible to be stationed, so that it is possible to attract more consumers to use their platform. For this reason, his requirements for merchants are necessarily not high (although constantly rectified). The purpose of the merchants, of course, is to make money, wave after wave of concessions behind the quality of the ingredients continue to decline. There is also a key point, some merchants are in fact only online sales, so the overall investment in the business will be much lower than the traditional catering industry, so much less afraid of word of mouth and so on.
Third, the quality of the delivery rider also determines the future of the entire delivery industry is hopeless. Running red lights, driving against traffic, speeding is common, but also theft, rape and other vicious incidents. On the surface, it is the problem of the riders, but actually it is the problem of the management of the takeaway platform. Fundamentally, is the takeaway platform simply do not want to spend more money in this aspect of the rider, the reason is still because China's overall spending power is not high, more this can not afford to support a better tier of takeaway consumption (here said is the mass consumption).
Fourth, no matter how well you do in the restaurant industry, when you rely on other platforms (Meituan, Hungry), your fate, at least your fate of the takeaway in the hands of others (to give or not to give the flow of his say), you have to do according to his rules.
So, McDonald's KFC such foreign fast food, so focus on the cost of the case, would rather spend more money to choose their own staff delivery rather than choose the takeaway platform.
The takeaway industry is still growing day by day, because of the popularity of smartphones and the development of the lazy economy, and the frequent movement of the urban population, many people are renting apartments, so the demand for takeaway will still grow further.
But in the industry's development trend, but not necessarily every merchant can benefit from it. Hungry Mou and Meituan takeout, including Meituan Dianping below the reviewer's takeout, in fact, are still relying on subsidies to attract users, and the degree of subsidy for the platform is larger, while advertising fees and commission revenue are still at a low level. For merchants, especially small takeaway stores, Meituan Hungry Mou such as the platform's commission for their profits is more damaging, so many stores are planning to gather their own users to their own platform to master the data, such as the development of their own apps, or small programs, with a variety of benefits to attract users to register, of course, for the larger food and beverage stores for this decision is more favorable. Less famous stores still need to brush their faces on the platform to draw attention to attract more users.
The takeout industry is promoting lazy increments. But not to say: food safety worries . (Pouring program more. Hidden dangers also increase). You don't hear. Spit. Piss. And shit. People are unpredictable. It affects the operating costs of the restaurant. A few more channels of exploitation. What kind of innovation is that? It's basically a roadblock. It's pointless. [Prayer][Prayer]
That is, in the first-tier cities can be
1. The cost of escape
Human nature is not laziness, but the cost-benefit relationship, otherwise it can not be explained why the courtship, raising the next generation, choose to live in the place of human beings are not lazy
Distribution costs. When we look at cities like Tokyo and Manhattan, it's true that takeout is well-developed, but even in the U.S. and Japan, the business in most cities is not one in which takeout overpowers the kitchen.
It's true that Americans don't like to cook for themselves, but that doesn't mean these people order takeout. Driving a few kilometers to go out to eat is common, and people who live in low-density areas have about as much labor cost as a delivery boy: on an opportunity cost basis, it's uneconomical to live in a low-density area by always ordering takeout and having someone else drive over.
What about China? In the long run do not cook will overwhelm cooking, this is an inevitable trend of economic development, after all, most Chinese people are not used to takeout, do not use big cities as an example, or to emphasize that this article is talking about the national scope. But do not cook does not mean that call takeaway, economics if they go out to eat all kinds of costs higher than takeaway, then go on their own is more appropriate. First-tier cities can do it, but unfortunately at present most Chinese cities and towns are not up to this standard.
To a simple comparison:
- - Merchants: dine-in customers are to occupy the site, so the takeaway part of the rent included in itself is diluted into the merchant part of the gross profit, but it is the platform fee to be expended, so as long as this part of the increase in the flow of water and profits can be.
- customers: pay more delivery fee
- platform: water draw
- delivery staff: salary + performance commission
That is to say, the customer if the use of takeaway, lost in the venue to consume the opportunity cost, plus pay the delivery fee; and at the same time to save time. Unfortunately, below tier 3 cities, the time savings are too limited at the moment: transportation distance and waiting costs for eating in this part of the world are very low.
I'm familiar with Hebei, and many people in Shijiazhuang have to take a nap plus go home for dinner, and by the time they get to Langfang Cangzhou, it's ten minutes to get home. The time saved is far less than the cost of takeout, lunch and dinner takeout gross profit of the low, can not feed the takeout brother. Although the third-tier cities commission and profit is proportionally shrinking, but the basic salary is not as commission generally greatly scaled.
What we can observe is that below the third tier, the first tier of the city in the sense of takeout is not good to go in. Live well are high margin cakes, fruit, wine. Maybe small cities in the future at noon, people will not go home to eat, also began to eat eat fast food, down the restaurant. But the overwhelming dominance of the formation of takeaway is not seen anywhere else in the world.
2 on the research
I myself have written industry research reports before, and also CFA. high ticket answers to do the work have dabbled in before, and what I hope to explore here is: as a researcher, this article is not strong enough for explaining the issue of takeaway and cooking your own meals.
First of all, the object of the survey, Baidu, Meituan, Hungry Mou add up to no more than 200 million active users, which also includes inactive and brush single. The chosen target of the survey must be the use of takeaway, all of a sudden more than seventy percent of the country is excluded; we write the report if the choice was originally going to use takeaway, of course, the data show that people's lives have been changed by the takeaway app. Try this questionnaire in a fourth-tier city? Right .
The second is willingness. Rich people of course do not want to cook, but the percentage of rich people is very small. The biggest illusion given by the bar chart is that the income distribution is even. In fact, the richest 10 million people in the country don't cook every day, sorry, they don't contribute much to the market, of course, if we assume that they order spicy lobster rice every day, it's also possible.
Third. The takeout industry is still subsidized. It's hard to tell whether people rely on takeout because it's convenient or because it saves them money. Most people see that branded catering with takeaway is cheaper than dine-in, of course, continue to use it. If you can't dig into the data to find out if people are choosing to keep using takeout because of subsidies or something else. Then this reason for Internet convenience is not solid.
A lot of Internet reports give investors and the public the illusion that the form is a good thing, in fact, quite a startup died in this atmosphere. If you're talking about trends across society, it's advisable to pick your subjects more randomly, and tell us how many people rejected them outright during the research.
Lastly, on the subject of technological developments
It's true, as some of my friends have mentioned, that the cost of takeout will drop dramatically as automated delivery matures. I don't want to refute this technology, but I just think that if self-driving is possible, there will be a big change in food science and physical space, and people will be able to buy some kind of self-heating products directly, which may be even more delicious than the existing restaurants; or people may prefer to let the self-driving car to bring themselves to the restaurant; and then the ar and vr technology may change the diet completely.
So assuming that the rest of the industry and technology will remain the same, and assuming that self-driving cars are the only thing that will advance, is clearly an irresponsible investment. Twenty years from now, it's all about grasping the tech megatrends. Whether or not takeout will overpower the kitchen by then is another story.
At present, the takeaway is not a replacement for the kitchen, the replacement is a major type of delivery service. Everything with the takeaway company data and their own cooking to say things, are underestimating the ambition of these companies.
The takeaway market has been developing for a long time, from the earlier multiple platforms **** the same competition, the development of the present, there are only two giants left - hungry and the United States group, then the last deer who died?
First of all, the takeaway market is very large, it is unlikely to appear completely monopolistic , just like Ali in the e-commerce world, it does not have the uniqueness, which is very different from Tencent, the social has a relative uniqueness, the majority of people use WeChat to communicate with each other, it is difficult for you to use other. But the takeaway market is not the same, as long as you deliver food on time, as long as a little bit of small concessions, naturally, there will be a lot of people pouring head, that is to say, the takeaway industry customer stickiness is not high .
Secondly, the United States group recently also want to go public, is also not short of money Lord, hungry behind Ali; Ali strong in the amount of money title, Alipay entrance, and the United States group is the traditional strong in this field, has a certain advantage. But both are currently not completely beat each other's hard power, in terms of financial strength, the hungry does not have a great disadvantage.
Once again, though, the market share of Hungry Mansion is lower than that of Meituan, considering that Hungry Mansion has acquired Baidu Takeout, which means that there's not much of a gap between Meituan and Hungry Mansion in practice. That's still earlier data, and since Ali's acquisition of Hungry Mansions and its involvement in Alipay, Hungry Mansions' market share has risen somewhat.
Finally, in terms of service, there's not much to differentiate the two, and the competition will continue for a long time. Because this market is big enough, neither side will easily admit defeat, and if either side is not doing well, they can always bring in new capital and management, and then re-fight the price war to attract customers, with no end in sight.
First of all, you can be sure that the takeaway market is also very big, the possibility of a dominant one, but there will not be only one, the current takeaway occupies the largest market share is the United States group, but the United States group also has a very strong rival hungry!
The United States was once a member of the Ali Department of generals, and ultimately fell to Tencent, with Tencent this big backer is better, Ali in order to block the United States, counterattacking Tencent has also planted a little brother hungry, in the Alipay open first-class entrance focus on supporting the Hungry's growth rate is very fast, the market share is rising, the United States will inevitably have a certain impact on the future, but it is not to say that the future of the market is necessarily these two. The market must be these two, mobile Internet era, many things change quickly, just like in the field of e-commerce, Ali and Jingdong so control the situation, Poundland can still do as big as a lot of things are full of variables, but for consumers, the more competitive, the more popular.
The takeaway market is also big enough, a dominant, or two possibilities for hegemony, but even if the market share is bigger, not to put the main energy used to improve the product or improve the service, will lose consumers, do the right thing consumers will automatically use their feet to stand in line with whoever they choose, which is to win the hearts and minds of the world of the everlasting truth!
MMT takeaway is now to good monopoly, threatening to force merchants to sign the so-called strategic cooperation agreement, in fact, is the exclusive agreement, pay 2000 deposit, do not sign on the original 15 points to 20-26 points, do not listen to the line down rankings draw small distribution range. I would like to ask how many years such a rogue enterprise can do
The takeaway industry is more characteristic of fast, fast consumption, before ordering a 11 yuan of small noodles, the taste is really very good, but I'm very little point of takeaway, will not be because of other reasons, my home refrigerator inside the thing is in is too much, not only all kinds of beef, mutton, milk, wine, yogurt, and is also Purchased through the takeaway, so I understand the takeaway is the future takeaway will replace all consumer goods mode, and the following stores will be realized in the way of experience stores, to be honest, I rarely go to those experience stores, at most just go to see a movie, and recently I even do not go out to see the movie, and my consumption is all express, in addition to business trips to live in a hotel, I basically do not go outside the store to buy things, and those stores basically also have takeaway, and the store has a lot of things, and the store has a lot of things. And those stores basically have takeout, with the Chinese people's consumption ability to improve, the future of daily necessities consumption basically all in the takeout to realize.
I've been doing this for 3 years, and as an industry insider I'd like to say a few words about the difference.
1. Diversification. Takeaway as an important channel to facilitate people's lives, with the diversification of demand, the future of more than just delivery, has now begun to send flowers, medicine, food and fresh food, the future of more and more life scenes will be included in the takeaway.
2. Takeaway and courier industry into one. The four a da is still in the mix at the same time, but do not know the United States and hungry in the layout of the courier logistics industry, four a da can send, I can send the United States, the same distribution, why not expand the scope of business.
3. In the short term, it is difficult to form a giant monopoly.