Looking back at last week, the price of corn mainly rose, which was mainly due to two reasons. First, the bearish sentiment in the wheat rebound market decreased, and the liquidity of grain sources decreased greatly. Second, the basic grain sources were basically transferred. Coupled with the weather and other factors, even in the face of weak downstream demand, corn has obviously bottomed out!

At present, there are new and old favorable factors in the corn market:

1. The grain source at the grass-roots level has been greatly reduced and basically transferred, and the pressure of mobile supply in the market has been reduced, and the pricing power has begun to shift!

2. Aging rice has been postponed again. According to the latest news, the official decided to postpone the start time of aging rice again because wheat and corn are at a low level. It is expected that it will be postponed until the end of the purchase of new wheat!

3. The regionalization of grain sources is serious, and the northeast grain does not have the conditions to flow into North China and Shandong. Although the current price of North and South Ports is in surplus, it is unprofitable! More importantly, the tide grain in Northeast China has bottomed out, with more than half of the grain sold, and the market pressure has been reduced

4. After entering the second quarter, the government began to exert its strength from the level of policy support, with the focus on stimulating the rise of domestic demand. First, we must ensure that the people's livelihood needs to maintain food prices simultaneously!

5. Although the orders for imported corn and grains and their arrival in Hong Kong are increasing, most of them do not directly flow into the market, but are pushed into the market by the auction of grain reserves, which avoids the impact on domestic food prices to the greatest extent! Another point is that the import volume is expected to decline in the second quarter!

6. The May Day holiday is coming soon. After entering the late stage, whether it is deep processing or milling, there is a high probability that it will be affected by the holiday effect, and we will start the journey of raising prices and stocking!

7. It is also the most crucial point. To sum up the latest official news, the official monitoring has begun to target the funds of the three parties, and even the word "No" has begun to appear, which is absolutely "bad news" for some large and medium-sized enterprises. If the large enterprises actually land, they will probably "flow back" and the cost will become an unavoidable consideration. Once they "go back to the source", the price of corn will inevitably go up!

corn summary: Although there is a lot of bad news in the market at present, with the recovery of the downstream market and the guidance of policies, with the approach of the May Day holiday, there is a high probability that corn will rise. Even if it can't reach the historical high temporarily, it will not be far apart. It should be noted that the concentrated quantity that will appear before the wheat harvest will definitely have a great impact on the price. Xiaobian's suggestion remains unchanged, and it is best to choose mid-May for the shipment before the wheat harvest. It is estimated that the rate of corn price increase around May Day will be maintained at around 111 yuan!

Looking back at the changes in the wheat market last week, although there were repeated shocks, the overall situation showed a warming trend. At present, the wheat market is intertwined with long and short positions, and there is no basis for a sharp rise in wheat prices for the time being. However, it is not difficult to find that the main grain holders at this stage have begun to have "coping strategies", and it is difficult for flour milling enterprises to comprehensively suppress it again! At present, there are three good news in the wheat market. First, the auction of grain reserves has the meaning of "cooling down". Although it is not to stop shooting, it is also a good signal to reduce the total amount!

Second, the demand channels for wheat are increasing, especially in the southern region. In addition, there are more extreme weather this year, and the yield of new wheat in many producing areas is not optimistic, which is conducive to the consolidation of the bottom and the opening of new wheat!

Third, the May Day holiday is approaching, and the consumption of catering+tourism is bound to rise in a straight line, which will inevitably boost the delivery of flour, improve the stocking demand of enterprises and increase their purchasing enthusiasm! Coupled with the increase in the price of bran, it is really not difficult for the price of wheat to return to 1.5 yuan/Jin!

conclusion: at present, it is an extremely "ordeal" period for traders. The future of the market is unclear, the market is shrouded in bearish sentiment, and the official attitude is unclear. In addition, it is less than two months before the new wheat is listed. However, with the tightening of supply and the recovery of downstream demand, the driving force for the rise of wheat and corn will continue to increase. This round of wheat decline will have a certain impact on corn. Within the acceptable range, more attention has been paid recently.

Remarks: The above analysis of the corn and wheat market at this stage only represents personal views. For reference only, not as a basis for investment. Different opinions are welcome to leave a message for discussion. Investment is risky, and trade needs to be cautious!