It took several rounds to solve the crisis.
Exhausted after the incident, he lamented: After all the careful consideration and preparation, there are still many problems. During the three months of preparing for this store, the fire approval, the landlord's difficulties, the rectification of urban management, the destruction of the decoration team, and the incomprehension of shareholders ... I feel that the whole world is full of hostility!
—00 1—
Preparing a restaurant is a complex matter involving a wide range, and it is precisely because of this complexity that the result is even more difficult to predict accurately.
The Sydney Opera House in Australia is a classic example:
The original planned cost was 7 million Australian dollars, and 1963 was opened at the beginning. In fact, in the case of a smaller scale than originally planned, it cost/kloc-0.04 million Australian dollars, and the opening time was delayed by/kloc-0.0 years.
Taleb wrote in Black Swan:
The more complicated things are, the lower the probability of success, and the easier it is for us to exaggerate the proportion of our subjective initiative in the whole event.
This also explains to some extent why everyone knows that the probability of winning the lottery is so low (only14 million), and it is still being robbed.
Objectively speaking, the more complicated things are, the easier it is to produce some unexpected things in the development process, and these unexpected events that we have not considered in advance will often disrupt our plans.
—002—
It is extremely complicated to predict what has not happened and then make a careful plan.
It is a skill to deal with the problem of survival in the process of human evolution.
Dr Daniel Dennett of Oxford University once said:
For example, if you get punched in the street, you can punch him angrily on the spot, but your brain will predict in a short time that this may lead to another punch and even hospitalization.
So you will give up your instinctive first choice and rationally choose to call the police or your lawyer to protect your rights and interests more efficiently.
In other words, you avoided a small disaster by forecasting.
Speaking of it, the recent hot anti-killing case in Kunshan seems a bit inevitable.
Imagine if the BMW driver had calmly predicted the consequences of returning to the car with a knife (even if he was not killed, he would have to pay the corresponding price for cutting the other side), then maybe the result would be another matter.
The prediction of the development of the world promotes the continuous exploration of the world and the development process of the whole mankind.
As small as our prediction of the results of each practice, we are urged to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages.
It can be said that the behavior of predicting the future runs through all aspects of our lives.
—003—
But the prediction of the future does not always play a positive role. Some aspects need our vigilance:
Prediction will produce psychological expectations. Once the prediction is inconsistent with the result, in order to achieve the consistency of self-cognition (commonly known as self-certification), it is often forced to attribute, and it is impossible to correctly treat the development law of things.
Let's give an example:
Colleague Xiaoming's mobile phone is broken, and he is going to buy a new one. If you predict that Xiao Ming will buy Xiaomi's mobile phone, then you will know that Huawei has been chosen.
When talking about this matter, you are likely to make the mistake of compulsory attribution. For example, you will feel that Huawei has a high brand awareness in the world in recent years and won glory for national brands. Xiaoming is a young man with a strong national plot, so he chose to buy Huawei.
Then this sentence will take root in your heart. Unless Xiao Ming tells you the real reason for his purchase, it will affect your evaluation of Xiao Ming and his related judgment.
But the real reason may be that Xiaoming's new girlfriend works in Huawei and can get the internal price.
You actually took Xiaoming's girlfriend to work in Huawei, and got the internal price, which proves that Xiaoming is a young man with a strong national plot!
In addition, once we make a prediction, we will automatically block the information that does not match it.
For example, if your right eyelid keeps jumping in the morning, you may predict that something bad will happen today.
As a result, before leaving work at night, I was criticized by the leader in public for dereliction of duty. Then you will sigh: it really is "the left eye jumps for money, and the right eye jumps for disaster"!
And more than 100 things that happened to you all day today went well, but you completely ignored them.
In addition, the reason for being criticized was obviously the problem of the plan handed in before going to work yesterday, but the result was delayed for one day. What is the inevitable connection between this and your right eyelid jump in the morning? !
There is a special name for this in psychology: self-testifying prophecy.
—004—
Of course, understanding the characteristics of prediction will help us better guide practice.
Daniel Kahneman, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, believes that forecasting errors are inevitable because the world is unpredictable.
Then he wrote in the book "Thinking Fast and Slow":
Can the future be predicted?
The answer seems a little chicken soup: it depends.
Taleb once put forward two concepts in Black Swan: average Stan and extreme Stan.
Simply put, the general Stan is a regular event, while the extreme Stan events are random.
Events in the average state are easier to predict, because most of them conform to certain development laws. It is relatively reasonable to understand the basic operation logic of such events and predict their development trend.
But the latter is different. The development of things is completely random and subversive, and the laws we know at present are not very helpful to its development and direction. You need to be very cautious at this time and don't jump to conclusions easily.
In addition to the above objective factors, we should pay more attention to internal factors, because they are subjectively controllable.
Let's look at a picture first:
If you were asked to draw the trend of this picture, how would you draw it?
Judging from the known data, these are some points that are arranged and combined in the positive direction. With this kind of thinking, it will be judged as a ray with an infinite end.
If you change your mind, will it be just a short screenshot on a complete axis?
Linear thinking looks at the world from a single perspective, and it is easy to make generalizations.
However, nonlinear thinking is relatively more comprehensive, thinking that the development of the world is diversified and more in line with the laws of world development.
Cultivating nonlinear thinking enables us to better cope with the complexity of the world and make more reasonable predictions about the future.
Back to my friend's trouble at the beginning of the article, in fact, the problem is that when he made the prediction of opening a store, he considered the result of being too single, and predicting the development of complex events with linear thinking will naturally lead to trouble.
The development of all events is spent in our prediction, experience and summary, and these experiences are constantly strengthening our perception of the future.
Learn to grasp the logic of things in ordinary Stan, accept uncertainty in extreme Stan, and be more fully prepared to deal with randomness, so as not to always sigh: Why is the world always against me?
Thank you for your patience in reading. Please put your interpretation of this topic in the comment area, and we will have a more in-depth exchange and discussion together!