After a brief decline, the pig market reversed, especially the price of pigs in the north. Today, it is the first to usher in a strong rebound, and most areas are red. Can it drive the national pig price down? Let's take a look.
It is true that this wave of pig price rise may be full of twists and turns, and the market game phenomenon is intensified, and the southern market is still not optimistic. What does this mean? Although the consumer side has improved, the peak consumption season has not yet reached expectations.
The price of pigs started in May and basically went up all the way. It took only half a year to reach the high point of 10, which is also considered as the "pig cycle" with the fastest reversal and the shortest rising cycle.
Next, the pig price began to fall endlessly from the high point of the year at the end of 10, and basically fell to the middle of 12. It took 50 days, and the drop was as high as 30%, which was really a bit "too fierce".
With the approach of New Year's Day holiday, the supply and demand of the market changed briefly, and the pig price ushered in a "low-level compensatory increase". Generally speaking, these five factors contributed to the growth.
First, as the end of the year approaches, most large pig enterprises have overfulfilled their annual slaughter tasks, showing signs of shrinking and raising prices. After all, they can sell a penny more and increase profits.
Second, farmers in some areas, especially those with low pig prices in the country, have a certain psychology of refusing to sell at low prices, and the amount of pigs sold in the market has decreased, making it more difficult for slaughtering enterprises to collect pigs.
Third, the slaughtering enterprises preempted the segmentation and warehousing. With the continuous decline of pig prices, the phenomenon of split warehousing in slaughter enterprises is prominent. In particular, a large part of the recent increase in pig slaughter comes from the support of slaughter enterprises for segmentation and warehousing.
Fourth, there is a corresponding adjustment signal at the policy end. As a result, during the "two festivals", the reserve pork was increased, and it was adjusted to enter the "pork storage" according to the change of pig price, which sent a clear "signal" to the market and the confidence of the breeding end was enhanced.
Fifth, under the influence of the "mask problem", although the market consumption is restricted, the worst period has passed. With the approach of New Year's Day and Spring Festival, and the relatively low price of pork, the situation of catering consumption market will gradually improve.
In short, these five main factors make it difficult for pig prices to fall sharply. If the terminal consumption improves to a certain extent, the short-term pig price may be dominated by strong shocks.
However, considering the advance of the Spring Festival in 2023, the time left for farmers to sell pigs is limited, even if farmers have the willingness to raise prices, it is difficult to sustain.
After New Year's Day, large pig enterprises may have to start a new round of impact before the Spring Festival, and the mood of price reduction and price increase will also weaken, which will further increase the supply of pigs in the market and have a negative effect on pig prices.
Generally speaking, with the growing scale and core competitiveness of pig enterprises, the space left for free-range farmers is getting smaller and smaller. In the future, the pig industry may really be "reducing costs and increasing efficiency". Who can do the strongest is king, and who can't can only be ruthlessly eliminated by the market.
According to the monitoring of the pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose by 16, and fell by 2 levels in 8, and the rising areas accounted for 62% of all the monitored areas.
The average price of live pigs monitored nationwide was the lowest 8.63 yuan/kg, the highest 8.92 yuan/kg, and the overall average price of live pigs was 8.78 yuan/kg, slightly higher than the national average price of live pigs yesterday by 0.06 yuan/kg. Today, the overall price of live pigs shows a trend of "greater fluctuation and more increase".
Forecast of hog price trend tomorrow: Based on the analysis of recent hog market factors, it is predicted that hog price will show a trend of "increasing steadily" tomorrow.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the pig market, grasp the market dynamics, collect and share, and raise pigs to make a fortune.