Although electric two-wheeled vehicles, as a necessary consumer product, have great demand prospects in China, quality and safety have always been a common problem in the industry because of unclear policies and disorderly competition at the low end.
It was not until April 20 19 that the new national standard for electric vehicles was implemented that these problems were gradually improved. It is understood that the new national standard clearly limits the weight (less than 55kg), speed (less than 25KM/H) and voltage (less than 48V) of electric bicycles. Compared with the old national standard, the parameters of electric bicycles in the new national standard are more optimized, and the non-motor vehicle properties of electric bicycles are adhered to in many aspects, and the safety standards are comprehensively improved, which is conducive to promoting the benign development of the industry.
After the introduction of the new national standard, various provinces and cities have successively introduced transitional policies for over-standard vehicles according to their own conditions. The deadline for the transition period in Zhejiang, Henan and other provinces is 202 1, while the transition period in Shandong, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu and other provinces with large number of electric vehicles will end in 2022-2024. Due to the different transition policies of over-standard vehicles in different provinces and cities, it is expected that the replacement demand of the new national standard will reach a high point in 2022 -2024.
It is worth emphasizing that due to the over-standard vehicles in various places (300 million vehicles, 70% of which need to be replaced), it is estimated that there will be a demand of 2,654,380,000 vehicles from 2065 to 2024. In this interval, the increment of forced stock replacement driven by the new national standard will reach 5 1 10,000 vehicles.
In addition, instant delivery services such as take-away and express delivery have the attributes of high-frequency vehicles, which is also an important incremental market for electric two-wheeled vehicles in the future. According to the data, as early as 20 19, the number of take-away users in China has reached 420 million, and there are more than 8 million related delivery personnel. According to the characteristics of car use, the daily mileage of instant delivery riders is as high as 120km, the service time is as long as 12.5h, and the daily charging times are 2-3 times. The battery needs to be replaced 1-2 times a year, and the whole vehicle needs to be replaced in two years.
Therefore, although there are only one million electric two-wheelers in the rider's market at present, due to the business characteristics, the service life of electric two-wheelers and batteries is short, and the number of cars to be replaced in five years is 6-7 times that of ordinary owners. From this point of view, the instant delivery of high-frequency inventory replacement will drive the output growth of electric two-wheeled vehicles, and it is estimated that the demand for instant delivery will exceed100000 vehicles by 2025.
As everyone in the industry knows, China is the largest electric two-wheeled vehicle market in the world. According to the data of China Bicycle Association, in 2020, the number of electric two-wheeled vehicles in China will be 340 million, and the sales volume will be 43 million. It is estimated that it will increase to 68.6 million by 2025, and the CAGR will be about 9.79% in 2020-2025. Considering that the natural replacement cycle of two-wheeled vehicles is 3-5 years, the future industry scale will be stable at more than 60 million vehicles.
In terms of market size, the global market size of 202 1 electric two-wheeler is175.6 billion USD, and the growth rate of 20 19-202 1 CAGR is 6.7%, which is expected to keep rising. According to the global production and sales situation, the production and sales of two-wheeled electric vehicles in China account for 865,438+0% and 90% respectively, making it the largest country in the world.
In terms of competition pattern, the new national standard has directly improved the industry competition pattern, leading to the continuous improvement of industry concentration. According to the data of iResearch, CR3 was 25.3% in 20 16 and reached 65.4% in 20021year. CR5 and CR 10 in 20 18 were 44% and 58% respectively, and reached 76% and 92% in 20021year.
After the new national standard, the price war is no longer overcast, and the head brand has the ability and willingness to gradually increase the product strength, fully tap the diversified needs of consumers, focusing on "performance" and "intelligence". By 202 1, Yadea's market share accounted for 33.7%, ranking first in the industry; Emma ranks second in the industry with a market share of 19.5%; Tailing bell, Xinri and Luyuan followed closely.
According to public information, Yadea Holdings was established on May 200 1 and successfully listed in Hong Kong on May 20 16. It is the leader of electric two-wheeled vehicles in the world, and the sales volume ranks first in the industry. At present, Yadea's sales network has spread all over the world in 83 countries and regions, with 2,955 dealers nationwide and more than17,000 offline stores, with obvious channel advantages. In addition, the company has strong propaganda ability and brand marketing is second to none in the industry. It once placed advertisements in CCTV prime time, which brought the highest brand attention, and the product premium was significantly higher than other enterprises.
Emma Technology was founded on 1999 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on 202/kloc-0. It is one of the leading brands of electric two-wheeled vehicles in China. The company has a perfect sales network, with more than 2,000 dealers, second only to Yadea; In addition, the company has a wide range of products, covering a complete customer base. Due to the early layout of the 100 billion charging and replacing service market, the company's market share and performance have accelerated, which will benefit from the accelerated development of the electric two-wheeled vehicle industry.
In terms of production capacity, the total production capacity of Yadea in Wuxi, Jiangsu, Cixi, Zhejiang, Jinzhai, Tianjin, Qingyuan, Guangdong and Yongchuan, Chongqing is about 6.5438+0.8 million vehicles/year, which is unique among many electric two-wheeler enterprises. With the support of production capacity, the scale effect will push down the cost, which is conducive to the increase of the company's profits. In addition, Emma also has a total production capacity of about 9 million vehicles/year in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong, ranking second in the industry, second only to Yadea.
In order to meet the downstream demand, the production capacity of major car companies has continued to expand in recent years. It is understood that Yadea's production capacity of 3 million vehicles in Jiangsu will be completed in 2022. After the completion of Vietnam's expansion plan, it will also bring 500,000 vehicles/year of new production capacity. From the perspective of long-term planning, it is estimated that by 2025, the company's total production capacity will reach 25 million vehicles/year. In addition to Yadea, Emma, No.9, Nippon, Mavericks and other companies have invested more than 400 million yuan in recent expansion projects.
As can be seen from the above data, in order to maintain competitiveness, the capital expenditure of traditional two-wheeled car companies has been maintained at a high level. Under the background of gradually clearing out backward production capacity, this will further accelerate the promotion of industry concentration, and the leading scale effect will continue to increase.
Because of the high frequency of use, high requirements for comfort and strong after-sales maintenance, consumers generally prefer to buy electric two-wheeled vehicles nearby. High-performance and intelligent products are the most important consideration for consumers to buy electric two-wheeled vehicles.
Insiders pointed out that the current mainstream electric two-wheeled vehicle products can only achieve simple functions and short-distance transportation, and high-end intelligent upgrades can provide consumers with better software and hardware performance and more humanized use experience. At the same time, electric two-wheeled vehicle manufacturers can further enhance their product competitiveness through high-end intelligence, so that the overall premium can be improved. After the intelligent transformation, it is estimated that the average price of electric two-wheeled vehicles will increase from the current 2000 yuan to 4000 yuan, and the market space will exceed 200 billion yuan.
Under the wave of intelligence, in recent years, "new forces" represented by Mavericks Electric and No.9 Company have focused on high-end smart products to cut into the market. Compared with the traditional two-wheeled vehicle company, the new power company has more complete functions. With the blessing of intelligent technology, it has an advantage position in industry intelligence through the development of intelligent software and hardware.
In terms of software, it is different from the simple page and single function of the traditional two-wheeled car enterprise APP. The pages of the APP of Mavericks Electric and Company No.9 include many functions, such as vehicle information recording and inquiry, community activities development and communication, store and commodity information inquiry, which can deepen users' social circle attributes and further enhance their stickiness with users.
Take the calf as an example. As a new type of electric two-wheeled vehicle enterprise, Mavericks has a market share of only 1% and a small user group, which is much lower than that of traditional two-wheeled vehicle enterprises. However, the high download volume and rating of its APP reflect the company's strong new media marketing ability and high user loyalty under the Internet gene, which helps Mavericks to enhance their stickiness with customers, thus improving the user conversion rate.
In terms of hardware, new forces create high-end demand with the help of the Internet and technological advantages. Their products have both intelligent functions and quality advantages, and pay attention to maintaining customer relations, which greatly enhances the stickiness of customers.
Take the No.9 B series 90 model as an example. In terms of intelligent configuration, this electric car is equipped with RideyGo! 2.0 system, with the blessing of intelligent hardware such as ECU, MCU, sensor and BMS, supports many functions such as parking induction, riding induction, induction unlocking, OTA upgrade of vehicles, triple positioning of GPS+ Beidou+base station, remote switching of vehicles, cruise control and so on. It can be said that the most advanced technical reserves of No.9 company are basically included in this car.
In addition, the headlights of the car are also designed with intelligent light sense, which can automatically turn on/off the lights according to the brightness of external light sources, and the longest irradiation distance can reach 25 meters, so that users who need to ride can feel full of security at night. What makes people feel safe is its braking system. The car adopts front disc and rear drum+energy recovery braking system (EABS), which makes each braking more stable.
Before the new national standard, the homogenization of the electric two-wheeled vehicle market was serious and disorderly competition flooded the whole market. After the new national standard, the technical standards of electric two-wheeled vehicles are more standardized, from disorderly low-price competition to high-quality competition of product quality. With the continuous development of technology, the high-end and intelligent upgrade of electric two-wheeled vehicles is an inevitable trend. In the future, electric two-wheeled vehicles will have a longer battery life and a smarter power system, and the user experience will be fully optimized.
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