Statistics show that since the pig price turned from rising to falling in late October, 2122, the cumulative decline of pig price has reached 39.35%, and the national average price of live pigs has dropped to 7.77 yuan, reaching the lowest price in the last six months.

The price of eggs is "rising against the trend". At the moment when the consumer side has not fully recovered, it has risen for a week or so, and the mainstream price in the producing area has once again approached 5 yuan.

The price of grain fell when it was cold. The price of both corn and wheat showed a steady downward trend, and it is expected that it will be difficult to rise before the Spring Festival.

Sheep farmers' losses increase as the price of sheep continues to fall deeply.

The pig price has fallen to a new high

The pig price system shows that the average price of live pigs in China has dropped to 7.77 yuan. Although some areas ushered in a rising market on October 6, the increase was generally small, with 1.15-1.1 yuan in East China, 1.15-1.2 yuan in North China and 1.15-1.25 yuan in Central China.

overall, the decline rate is relatively large, with 1.2-1.5 yuan in Northeast China, 1.4-1.5 yuan in Southwest China, 1.7-1.9 yuan in South China and 1.4-1.5 yuan in Central China.

Although there is an increase, the national average price still falls.

compared with the highest price in late October, 2122, the average price of live pigs has dropped by 39.35% in recent two months.

I think there are several reasons for the tragic drop in pig prices during this period:

1. The pig price at the end of the fourth quarter is excessively optimistic at the breeding end, which makes the irrational increase of pigs and second fattening pigs in the market exceed expectations and supports the main theme of the downward trend of pig prices.

2. Affected by the epidemic situation, pork consumption was already depressed. After the optimization of prevention and control measures, the number of infected people suddenly increased, and pork consumption was further suppressed. The demand for cured meat decreased by 21%-31% compared with previous years, and the overall peak season of the market was not prosperous.

3. Students leave early, migrant workers return home early, and factory shutdown affects the centralized consumption demand such as canteens.

4. In 2123, the monthly slaughter plan of collectivized pig farms will be reduced by about 1.4%, but the window period of pig slaughter before the holiday is only 1.5 days, and the pressure of pig slaughter on a single day has not improved.

5. In some areas, meat reserves continue to be put in, and pig prices are under pressure.

Next, it is difficult to change the problem of pig oversupply. Whether the pig price can rebound depends on the recovery of consumption. Many farmers pin their final hope for the increase of pig price on the comprehensive efforts of the Spring Festival consumption around the next year. What I want to say is that the pig price before this year is likely to continue the trend of continuous decline and difficulty in rising the pig price before last year.

Egg prices "rose against the trend"

On February 28th, domestic egg prices started to rebound after falling to a low point. After a recent week's increase, the size of red egg scattered baskets in Henan Province rose to 4.85-5.15 yuan, that of red umbrella scattered baskets in Shandong Province rose to 4.65-4.77 yuan, and that of red umbrella scattered baskets in Jiangsu Province rose to 4.62-4.9 yuan.

Previously, due to the sluggish consumption of eggs, the limited elimination of chickens at the supply end, the reverse increase in production capacity, students' holidays and migrant workers' return home, as well as the optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures and the cliff-like decline in demand, the price of eggs continued to fall.

Under the condition that the infected people have not completely disappeared and the terminal consumption of eggs is still relatively underestimated, the price of eggs can rise against the trend, which I think is closely related to the following factors:

1. The recent increase in the demand for stocking by supermarkets and the distribution of condolences by enterprises will increase the demand for eggs, which will help the rapid consumption of stocks at all levels.

2. Recently, the number of old chickens eliminated has increased significantly, and the egg production capacity has decreased significantly compared with that in October and February.

3. The peak of infection in various places has passed one after another, and the demand for food and beverage consumption has recovered, and the passenger flow in supermarkets, shopping malls and other places has increased, driving the growth of egg consumption demand.

At present, the rising speed of egg price has obviously slowed down. Considering that the number of newly opened laying hens is expected to continue to increase, it is difficult to form a breakthrough growth in egg consumption demand before the holiday. In addition, the inventory at all levels is large, consumption still takes time, and the spot support of egg price is limited, so it is very difficult for egg prices to continue to rise.

The price system shows that on October 6th, the price of wheat remained relatively stable, and some deep processing enterprises fluctuated slightly.

The price of corn also kept steady and declining.

It was originally thought in the industry that feed enterprises and corn deep processing enterprises will stock up a lot before the festival at the end of the year, which will drive the corn price to pick up.

And the increase in the demand for terminal flour will also lead to the recovery of wheat prices.

As a result, both wheat and corn are hard to rise when they are cold.

The quotations of corn deep processing enterprises continue to fall, mainly due to the following reasons:

1. After the continuous decline of corn prices, some grain holders lose confidence in the market outlook, and more choose to cash in their positions, so that profits can be saved.

2. It is understood that this year's grain harvest progress is about 11% slower than the same period of last year, which means that the focus of corn is shifting towards the post-holiday. Under this background, the enthusiasm of deep processing enterprises to prepare goods before the holiday is low.

3. The price of pigs, chickens and eggs fell in the cold, which made the breeding end shrouded in the mood of seeing decline, and the enthusiasm of feed enterprises to open positions was not high.

The wheat quotation of flour enterprises is still weak, which I think is mainly due to these two aspects:

1. Due to the slow delivery of flour in the early stage, the flour inventory of flour milling enterprises is generally high.

2. Some milling enterprises stopped harvesting wheat, and the market was not smooth.

However, the main grain holders need to realize cash before the holiday, and the transportation is relatively smooth, so the wheat market has a good quantity.

for the subsequent corn and wheat prices, with the consumption of surplus grain, farmers and traders at the grass-roots level will feel reluctant to sell at a very high price. After the Spring Festival, students will start school and workers will return to their posts, and the consumption demand of canteens will recover, and the passenger flow of restaurants and supermarkets will also recover.

All these will help maintain the current level of food prices, and may even stimulate food prices to rise.

the loss of raising sheep is getting worse

It is understood that at present, the price of fattening sheep in Shandong is 12-13 yuan/kg, that of fattening Hu sheep in Anhui is 14-16 yuan/kg, that of Duhan skewers in Tangxian County, Hebei Province is in February/kg, and that of small-tailed Han sheep in Wuwei, Gansu Province is 12-14 yuan/kg.

The price of culled sheep is lower. The price quoted by sheep dealers is 8.5-9 yuan/kg for 61% to 71% Han ewe and 11 yuan/kg for 81% big ram.

whether fattening sheep or eliminating sheep, the current price is very unsatisfactory.

However, the price of forage is rising constantly. At present, the price of corn is basically around 1.5 yuan, the price of bran is basically around 1.1 yuan, and even the cheapest corn stalk has risen to 651 yuan/ton.

On the one hand, the low price of sheep, on the other hand, the increasing price of durian, which aggravates the loss of raising sheep.

However, the good news is that with the recovery of the consumer side, the price of sheep in some areas shows signs of a slight rebound, which has stimulated farmers to clear the hurdles and eliminate ewes to a certain extent, and accelerated the production capacity.

after the epidemic situation is superimposed, the terminal consumer market will recover, and even after the peak of infection, retaliatory consumption will be ushered in. The sheep price that was predicted to pick up in May and June is expected to pick up earlier.