an aging society has no advantages.
Germany has the highest aging population in Europe, with more than one fifth of the population over 65. Worldwide, its population is aging second only to Japan. Statistics show that the population of Germany was about 81.8 million in 2111, of which less than one seventh was under the age of 15, which is the lowest in Europe, and only Japan is lower than Germany in the world. According to the current birth rate, the population problem in Germany will become more and more serious in the future: after 41 years, the population will be reduced by 12 million to 71 million.
The aging population has a deepening influence on Germany's economic and social life, and the social structure is also changing. The potential of Germany's economic growth is weakened; The financial burden of the public is increasing; Social security funds will face an unprecedented crisis; And this leads to the widening gap between urban and rural areas, rising unemployment rate, social and psychological problems and other adverse consequences. In 2119, 2.3 million Germans needed care, and this number will increase to about 3.3 million in 2131.
Germany is one of the first countries in the world to systematically deal with aging. After decades of development, it has become a veritable model of welfare state. The law that came into effect in 2112 stipulates that the age of retirees will gradually transition from 65 years old to 67 years old; The German ruling party led by Chancellor Angela Merkel also drafted a bill to levy an extra "age tax" on people over the age of 25 who have income, so that these young workers can help the country cope with the imminent pressure of providing for the aged.
Germany is seriously aging
Germany has entered an aging society since 1981s. Statistics show that the average age of Germans in 1981 was 37.1 years old, which was 2.2 years (6.3%) higher than that in 1971. However, the average age in 1971 was 34.9 years, which was almost the same as that in 1961. Compared with 1981, 1991 increased by 1.7 years (by 4.6%), and in 2111 it increased by 1.4 years. The reason for the relatively slow growth of the average age from 1981 to 2111 comes from the foreign population and the unification of East and West Germany. After digesting these two factors, the year 2111 increased by 2.6 years compared with 2111.
Germany is one of the most aging countries in the world. In 2111, the average life expectancy of Germans reached 79.81 years, including 77.71 years for men and 82.74 years for women. According to the figures of the Federal Statistical Office in 2111, the population over 61 years old reached 21.7 million, accounting for 26.6% of the total population, of which 61 million were over 65 years old, accounting for 19.6% of the total population. It is predicted that the population over 61 in Germany will reach 36.2% in 2131 and even exceed 41.9% in 2151. At present, the elderly over 65 account for 21% of the German population. It is estimated that by 2131, the number of elderly over 65 will increase from about 16 million to 24 million. By 2161, this proportion will reach about 34%. At present, 1 out of every 5 people in Germany are elderly people over the retirement age of 65. By 2131, 1 out of every 4 people will be elderly people over 65, and by 2161, it will rise to 1 out of every 3 people.
During an interview in Germany, a reporter from China Economic Times once saw a warm scene of a middle-aged couple crossing the street with their five children. The oldest is over 11 years old, and the youngest is still lying in a trolley. However, the German colleague shook his head with a wry smile. He told me a proverb-"You can imagine the opposite", which was used to show that the present situation was only a special case. In fact, in Germany, what we see is indeed the "opposite situation": Lufthansa's flight attendant is "sister-in-law"; The waiter in the hotel is an old man; Most drivers of rented vehicles are elderly people.
The population of Germany has been decreasing since 2113, and the main reason for the change of population structure is the low birth rate. According to statistics, German women now have only 1.4 children on average. In 2116, the number of deaths was 44,111 more than the number of births. It is estimated that by 2131, the total population of Germany will drop from the current 82.5 million to 78 million. With the decline of population, the problem of aging in Germany has become more and more prominent. Sommer, head of the Federal Statistical Office, pointed out that since the 1971s, more and more German women have stopped being mothers. The reason for this situation is that there are not enough nurseries in Desi, and many primary schools close in the afternoon. In 2118, 11% of women over the age of 61 had no children, compared with 21% of women in the 41-44 age group. According to the Federal Statistical Office, from now until 2161, the population of Germany will be reduced to 65-71 million. With the aging society becoming more and more serious, the birth rate is declining, and German society will face great challenges.
Because the natural balance (the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths) is negative, the German economy is facing great challenges from the labor market, and the growth rate may drop significantly in the next decade. The Economic Report of Germany in 2112 issued by OECD pointed out that in the long run, the average economic growth rate of Germany will remain at a low level of 1.5%, and may even drop to 1% after 11 years, mainly due to the rapid aging of the population and the subsequent decline in the number of potential laborers.
Secretary-General Gurria of OECD said at the press conference that Germany needs to carry out structural reforms in the labor market, tax system and energy policy in order to remain rich in the future.
The researchers predict that from 2116 to 2125, the annual employment of OECD will increase by 1.5% on average, while the employment of Germany will decrease significantly during the same period. By the mid-1931s, the proportion of the population under 15 and over 64 in Germany will rise from the current 51% to 74%.
OECD economists demand that the German government carry out reforms, increase the number of employed people, and obtain professionals by letting more women work full-time and extending the retirement age. Therefore, Germany needs to reform its taxation and social security system. For example, reduce the tax incentives for single-employee families, and at the same time invest in the establishment of kindergartens with good services and low prices.
Gurria said that the economic growth rate of Germany in 2112 is expected to be only 1.4%. The pillars of Germany's economic growth in the future are strengthening domestic demand and improving labor potential. OECD suggested that Germany relax the harsh regulations of some service industries, such as architects and lawyers, and not only directly subsidize but also promote scientific research and development through tax reduction and exemption.
there will also be a gap in the labor force. Although the harmful effects of the current aging population are offset by more and more women and elderly workers participating in the work, Koth, a researcher at the Kiel Institute (IFW), one of Germany's six major economic research institutes, predicted: "The reduction of the number of employed people will weaken the potential of Germany's economic growth in the long run. The growth rate should be around 1.2% every year in the future, compared with 1.5% in 2111. " The Federal Labor Office predicts that the labor gap in Germany will reach 7 million by 2125, and foreign talents must be introduced on a large scale.
The increasing number of retired old people will have an impact on the public finances. According to the data of the German Federal Statistical Office, Germany has been in a state of negative population growth for most of the past 11 years. According to this development, fewer and fewer young people need to bear more old people. At present, there are about 2.3 million elderly people in Germany who need care, of whom 1.5 million are mainly aged at home, and the other 811,111 choose institutions for the aged. In view of the rapid development of aging in Germany, the world-famous auditor enrst &; Young's survey in September 2111 concluded that by 2121, 911,111 people in Germany will choose institutions for the aged. In other words, ten years later, it is necessary to increase the number of beds for the aged in one million institutions, and this investment alone will cost 17.7 billion euros.
The aging population will increase the social security expenditure, and the fund guarantee of the social insurance system will face great challenges. Colin Holtz, director of the Institute of Population and Development in Berlin, said: "As the German baby boomers enter retirement age, Germany's social security funds will face an unprecedented crisis, and today's social security system will be unsustainable because of lack of funds. Even if the birth rate can be improved, the absolute number of newborns will continue to decline, because the number of women of childbearing age is becoming less and less. "
The working group of the German Federal Parliament recently put forward an "age tax" proposal, that is, every German who has reached the age of 25 will pay a certain amount in proportion to his income to establish a reserve fund to ensure the rising pension expenditure in the future. The reason of the working group is that the generation born in the baby boom in the 1951s and 1961s will retire around 2131, when the required medical and nursing expenses will greatly increase.
The birth of "age tax" comes from the worry that the social security expenditure in an aging society is overburdened. Because it involves complex and sensitive political and economic fairness issues, its feasibility remains to be demonstrated. The proposal has also been repeatedly criticized by the ruling party and the opposition.
the german government has realized that the aging population will not only lead to the decline of national economic productivity, the increase of tax burden, the increase of young people's burden, the shortage of labor and a series of problems, but also deepen the social generation gap, and more elderly people with difficulties will appear, which will affect social harmony. Practical problems such as the shortage of professional talents and nursing staff in nursing homes in Germany show that the demographic changes characterized by aging have begun to have an impact on Germany's social economy. Some analysts believe that the biggest challenge facing Germany in the next few years is not the European debt crisis and energy shortage, but how to deal with the aging population. German ministries and commissions are working together to formulate a "population policy" program to make a long-term plan for Germany's response to population aging. Merkel hosted an expert meeting on population aging and invited representatives from all walks of life to discuss countermeasures.
In an interview with Business Daily, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder put forward "Agenda 2131", pointing out that we should respond to the challenges brought by the aging society in time. He insisted on extending the retirement age to 67, increasing the proportion of women in leadership and supporting the immigration policy. The working group that proposed the "age tax" not only emphasized the stability of the social security fund, but also put forward many measures such as creating a family-friendly social atmosphere, advocating immigrants, and hiring more women and elderly workers. At the same time, improving the birth rate and the balance between family and career of women require the government to formulate family-friendly and fertility-encouraging policies. It is believed that the reason why France's fertility rate is better than that of Germany lies in the encouragement and cooperation of its family policy.
Some population experts believe that population development generally goes through five stages from a multi-child agricultural society to an aging industrial society, and it should be balanced again in the final stage. Judging from the current situation, the global industrial countries are still developing towards an aging society, and whether they can achieve a new balance in theory remains to be tested by facts.
at a conference in Singapore? Dieter Salomon, mayor of Freiburg, a green city in Germany, talked about the future of the city. When asked what German cities will be like in the next 31 years, he smiled and said, "There will be no future".
Mr. Mayor is not exaggerating. For decades, the population growth in Europe is the slowest in the world, and the fertility rate is far lower than the population replacement rate, and it is about 51% lower than that in the United States. In time, this demographic trend will have disastrous economic consequences. By 2151, Europe's current population of 731 million will decrease by 7? 5 million to 1 billion people, its labor force population will also be reduced by 25% compared with 2111.
Germany is a super economy on the European continent, and the possibility of escaping the "cold winter" of population is slim. By 2131, there will be 53 retirees per 1,111 people in Germany, compared with 31 in the United States. In this way, Germany will face a huge debt crisis-the social welfare cost of the elderly will eat away at the achievements of its current saving/output economy. According to Nick Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute, by 2121, Germany's debt principal and interest will account for twice as much as Greece's current GDP.
government countermeasures
Germany is the first country in the world to establish a public pension system. As early as the end of 2119, the then Prime Minister Bismarck set up endowment insurance, and in the course of the whole 21th century, medical insurance, unemployment insurance, industrial injury insurance and nursing insurance in 1995 were successively born. Generally speaking, the old-age care is mainly undertaken by the society, and the public pension benefits are also very generous. Since the advent of nursing insurance, the pension industry has provided hundreds of thousands of employment opportunities to the society.
In order to cope with the aging, Germany has increased the cumulative pension plan on the basis of a single public pension system. Germany's public pension system (GRV) adopts the pay-as-you-go system, and the required funds come from payroll tax and financial subsidies. The payroll tax rate is 19.5%, which bears about 71% of the public pension expenditure. In the late 1981s, the government realized that aging would seriously affect the sustainability of public pension plans. Germany started the pension reform in 1992. The main policies include modifying the adjustment mechanism of pension benefits, avoiding the excessive growth of pension benefits and controlling early retirement. These methods reduce pension expenses and pension benefits at the same time. In order to make up for the decline in pension benefits, Germany has established a voluntary fully accumulated pension plan, with an individual contribution rate of 4% and tax incentives from the government. The coverage of the accumulation plan is still limited. In 2114, Germany further revised the formula for determining the pension benefits of the public. The new formula automatically adjusts the pension benefits of the public according to the changes in the ratio of the retired population to the contributory population. When the proportion of the elderly population increases, the pension benefits of the public will automatically decrease.
Germany's old-age insurance system includes three parts: statutory old-age insurance, enterprise old-age insurance and private old-age insurance, and the latter two are also called "supplementary old-age insurance". With the problem of aging population in Germany becoming increasingly prominent, the government's burden of providing for the aged is gradually increasing. For this reason, while maintaining the dominant position of statutory old-age insurance, the German government has also taken measures to encourage people to participate more in "supplementary old-age insurance".
In Germany, the statutory pension insurance covers a wide range, including both general pensions and pensions after occupational rehabilitation and loss of occupational ability or employability. In principle, all employees are compulsory participants of statutory old-age insurance, and freelancers such as doctors, lawyers and artists generally participate in private old-age insurance.
The statutory endowment insurance funds mainly come from the contributions of employers and employees, and the rate can be adjusted at any time according to the actual needs. At present, the contribution ratio is 19.5% of the salary, which is borne by both employers and employees. When the employee's monthly income is lower than a certain limit, the employer will pay it separately. In addition, the statutory old-age insurance also receives state subsidies every year, accounting for about one-fifth of the total expenditure of old-age insurance in that year. The pension is calculated according to the retiree's salary and length of service, but the maximum is not more than 75% of the last month's salary before retirement.
In addition, Germany also strongly encourages enterprise pension insurance and private pension insurance. Different from the statutory pension insurance, the enterprise pension insurance adopts the principle of "direct payment", that is, how much enterprise pension insurance an employee has accumulated during his work, and he can get a corresponding amount of pension after retirement. Employee payment