The overall performance and development of Taiwan Province's economy in 20 13 can be summarized as "economic downturn, boring people's livelihood, difficult reform and few bright spots". Economic growth is weak, with growth below 2% for two consecutive years; Industrial transformation is difficult, except for a few industries such as tourism, the overall performance of the industry is not good, especially the performance of important industries such as electronics and petrochemical is not as good as expected; People's livelihood issues are prominent, and wage stagnation has become the biggest challenge; The slow progress of economic reform has seriously restricted economic development. Economic development has few bright spots. In addition to maintaining the good development trend of cross-strait economic and trade cooperation, Taiwan Province Province has also made important progress and breakthroughs in foreign-related economic cooperation. In 20 14, the external economic environment has improved, and the economic performance of Taiwan Province Province will be slightly better than that of last year. It is estimated that the economic growth will be about 3%, but the structural and political problems faced by the economic development of Taiwan Province Province cannot be fundamentally solved, and the future development is not optimistic.

"economic downturn": "guarantee two" breaks the work

In recent years, the economic development of Taiwan Province Province is in trouble, showing a low growth state, which has not changed in 20 13. In 20 12 years, the economic growth of Taiwan Province province was only 1.48%. Originally, it was predicted that the economy would improve in 20 13 years. The Taiwan Province Economic Development Council predicted that the economy would grow by more than 3% for the whole year, and even put forward the optimistic expectation that there would be a "golden cross" in economic development (GDP growth by more than 4% and unemployment rate by less than 4%). However, over the past year, the economic performance of Taiwan Province Province has fallen far short of expectations, and the economic growth rate has been lowered for three consecutive times. The actual economic growth in each quarter is only 1.62%, 2.49%, 1.58% and 1.22% respectively (predicted value). According to the latest forecast of "General Accounting Office" of Taiwan Province Province, the annual economic growth rate of Taiwan Province Province is only 1.74%, which not only fails to achieve the original goal of 3% growth, but also fails to keep the revised goal of 2% growth, and the growth rate is lower than 2% for two consecutive years. Taiwan Province's economic growth rate is not only much lower than the mainland's economic growth rate of 7.8%, but also lower than that of South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan, and it is at the bottom of the major Asian economies, indicating that the key to Taiwan Province's economic difficulties is internal, not entirely external environment.

Among the troika of investment, consumption and export that supports economic growth, private investment has improved slightly, and it is expected to increase by 5.32% for the whole year, which is obviously better than last year's recession, but the main reason is that the base of investment recession last year was low, and the actual private investment growth was limited, which was not enough to stimulate economic growth. Consumption accounts for a large proportion in the economic growth of Taiwan Province Province. However, due to the poor overall economic situation, limited wage growth, rising prices and limited consumption growth. It is estimated that the annual growth of private consumption will be 1.46%, which is lower than the growth rate of 1.62% in the previous year and cannot support economic growth. As an export-oriented economy, Taiwan Province's foreign trade export has a great influence on economic growth. However, in recent years, the poor external economic environment, coupled with the changes in the economic operation mode of Taiwan Province Province, has led to a continuous increase in the proportion of overseas production, resulting in limited growth in export orders and exports. According to the statistics of Taiwan Province Province, export orders reflecting exports showed a negative growth, in which the order amount of 5438+0- 1 1 decreased by 0.4% in June, while the proportion of overseas production continued to rise to 53.7% on June 201,resulting in a low export growth. It is estimated that the annual export growth will be only 65,438.