in p>2113, with the healthy and rapid development of Baoji's economy, the consumer market in the urban area experienced the test of SARS epidemic and the change of the relationship between supply and demand, and the consumer price in the whole year went out of the continuous downturn and showed an upward trend.

The basic situation of market price changes in 2113

1. The overall level of consumer prices rose by 1.7%. In 2113, the consumer price index of Baoji urban area was 111.7, which broke away from the situation of continuous decline in recent years and showed a trend of stopping falling and rising.

2. By month, the trend distribution is V-shaped. From October to June, the consumer price index was 111.9, 111.5, 111.2, 111.5, 111.7 and 99.8, respectively. Except for the SARS epidemic in April and May, the prices of some Chinese herbal medicines and proprietary Chinese medicines soared, which led to the increase of the total index, all the other months showed a downward trend month by month, and reached the low point of the annual index in June, resulting in negative growth. From July to February, it was 111.4, 111.8, 111.8, 112.2, 115.2 and 114.5. In addition to the rapid increase in grain and oil prices in October, the index rose, which was the highest in the whole year, and other months showed a trend of rising month by month.

3. In terms of seasons, the trend is U-shaped. The year-on-year index of each quarter is 111.5, 111.7, 111.7 and 114.1, showing a trend of two highs and two levels, with the lowest point in the second and third quarters and the highest point in the fourth quarter.

4. Don't look at the classification, the prices of the eight categories are "five drops and three liters". Compared with the previous year, food, medical care and housing increased by 7.9%, 2.7% and 1.8% respectively, and the prices of five categories, such as tobacco, alcohol, clothing, household equipment and maintenance services, transportation and communication, entertainment, education, cultural goods and services, all declined to varying degrees, with the largest decline in household equipment, down by 6.5%, and other declines ranging from 1.5% to 2.9%.

analysis of factors affecting market price changes

<; I > Food is the direct reason that affects the rise of the overall price level < P > In 2113, the price of food rose by 7.9%, which directly affected the rise of the overall consumer price level by 2.71 percentage points, changing the situation of continuous decline in recent years and becoming the leader of all kinds of middle prices. The rise in food prices is mainly caused by the rise in the prices of grain, oil, vegetables and meat.

1. The prices of grain and oil are rising all the way. "food is the first of all things, and food prices are the basis of all prices." The annual grain and oil price indices increased by 6.9% and 8.2% respectively over the previous year. Especially since the end of October, the prices of rice, flour and oil have risen sharply. The average price of rice per kilogram has risen by 1.2 yuan, the maximum price of flour per bag (25 kilograms) has risen by more than 11 yuan, the price of bulk oil per kilogram has risen by about 1 yuan, the price of bottled oil (5 liters) has risen by about 8 yuan, the price of noodles and rice noodles in the catering field has risen by 1.5 yuan respectively, the cut noodles of semi-finished products have risen by 1.41 yuan per kilogram, and the price of cooked steamed bread has also increased in disguise. Due to the rise of grain and oil prices, it has also led to an overall increase in food prices related to this. The main reason for the sharp rise in the price of grain and oil is the reduction of crop planting area and the influence of natural disasters, which makes the output generally decline. In 2113, the planting area of summer grain in Baoji city decreased by 4.9% compared with the previous year, and the yield decreased by 13.7%, of which the wheat area decreased by 5.2% and the yield decreased by 14.1%. Oil area decreased by 2.5% and output decreased by 19.5%; The area of autumn grain decreased by 5%, of which the area of corn decreased by 5.5%. In addition, during the autumn sowing this year, it was raining continuously, and some wheat missed the high-yield sowing date, which made farmers even more reluctant to sell. Judging from the national market situation, the main grain and oil producing areas are also affected by natural disasters, resulting in a decrease in output, resulting in a large-scale market price increase of grain and oil in the country. From a historical point of view, the rise of grain and oil prices is the concentrated reflection of grain production in recent years and the inevitable result of the role of the law of value, which belongs to the recovery of grain and oil prices after the downturn in recent years. On the one hand, it is conducive to improving farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain and increasing farmers' income; However, on the other hand, the increase in grain and oil prices has driven the price increase of other related commodities by hitchhiking, which has added a certain burden to urban low-income residents.

2. The price of fresh vegetables remains high. The annual price of fresh vegetables increased by 36.2% compared with the previous year, with the highest increase of 74.3% in March, 12.9% and 22.4% in July and August, except for the decrease of 5.6% in June, and the increase in other months was above 31%. According to the survey, the factors that affected the sharp increase in the price of fresh vegetables in 2113 were as follows: First, it was affected by the change of climate conditions. After the Spring Festival, several large-scale attacks of "late spring cold" and severe drought caused large areas of vegetable fields to freeze and inhibited vegetable growth. Climate change has significantly reduced the amount of vegetables on the market, resulting in a relatively firm vegetable price from October to May. Since the second half of the year, it has been rainy and rainy, and the light time is less. In addition, the continuous cropping of land in recent years has further aggravated the occurrence of pests and diseases, which has greatly affected the production of fresh vegetables. Especially after the end of October, the supply of real estate fine vegetable market was completed ahead of schedule, and the listing period of Dalu vegetables was postponed. The supply of real estate vegetables was cut off from Ambassador Lala and the price went up again. Even the edible fungi in the high-yield period were driven by other vegetable prices, and the price increased greatly. Second, management links have increased and costs have risen. The largest vegetable wholesale market in Baoji City is in Renmin Street, which mainly provides the market supply of fine dishes transferred from other places. Due to the addition of a management link in 2113, the management fee for one car of vegetables was as high as 811 yuan-1111 yuan, which was 2 times higher than the previous year. Third, transportation costs have increased. The increase in transportation costs has increased the cost of vegetable trafficking, and freezing and rainy weather has also caused great inconvenience to vegetable picking and transportation.

3. The prices of meat, poultry and eggs have risen due to changes in market supply and demand. The price of fresh eggs in Baoji city has been hovering below the water level from October to August this year. In March, it hit a record low in 88 years, with an average of about 3.4 yuan per kilogram. In June, the average price dropped by 12.4% compared with the same period of last year. In September, it stopped falling and rose by 8.1% and 11.2% respectively. However, from the perspective of the chain, it began to climb out of the trough in May. The price of fresh eggs increased by 2.2% over the previous year. The price of meat and poultry has been relatively stable since the beginning of the year, but after the midsummer, the price of pork returned to the normal state in previous years, and the off-season did not fade, and the price continued to rise. Especially after the lifting of the SARS epidemic, the catering industry fully recovered, which greatly increased the market demand, and the price of meat, poultry and products increased by 5.4% over the previous year.

< Second > The prices of industrial consumer goods are still in a downward trend

Due to the general oversupply of industrial consumer goods and fierce competition in the buyer's market, price reduction, discount and promotion activities of industrial consumer goods such as clothing, household appliances and communication tools can be seen everywhere, resulting in the prices of these goods still in a downward trend. The prices of tobacco and alcohol, clothing, durable consumer goods and communication tools decreased by 1.7%, 1.5%, 6.7% and 4.8% respectively.

< Third > Gold price and oil price fluctuate greatly under the influence of the international market

Affected by the fluctuation of oil and gold price in the international market, the prices of gasoline and diesel in Baoji City increased by 17.2% and 13.5% respectively compared with the previous year, the price of liquefied petroleum gas increased by 8.9%, and the price of jewelry mainly made of gold and platinum rose by 11.2%.

< 4 > The SARS epidemic caused the prices of Chinese herbal medicines to soar sharply

Affected by the SARS epidemic, the prices of various Chinese herbal medicines, disinfectants, isatis indigotica root and antiviral granules for preventing atypical pneumonia rose sharply, resulting in a 9.4% increase in the prices of Chinese herbal medicines and proprietary Chinese medicines over the previous year, of which the prices of Chinese herbal medicines rose by 25.5%.

judging from the market price trend and operation situation in 2113, prices will still show an upward trend in 2114, mainly as follows: 1. The prices of agricultural products will continue to operate at a high level. Due to the long production cycle of agricultural products and the influence of market supply and demand, it takes a long time for prices to fall back. In 2114, especially in the first half of the year, the price will continue to maintain the current level. 2. The price of medical care will slowly fall back. In particular, the price of Chinese herbal medicines, with the weakening of the impact of SARS on the Chinese herbal medicine market, will gradually become reasonable with the adjustment of the market, but the price will still run at a high level, and it is unlikely that it will drop significantly for a while. 3. The price of energy consumer goods will continue to rise. 4. Affected by the rising prices of food and energy, it is inevitable that the prices of some industrial consumer goods will rise.