A black swan named "novel coronavirus" came to the road, just like opening the legendary Pandora's Box and grabbing the "throat" of society with a black hand. Enterprises all over the country are facing problems such as sharp drop in cash flow, traffic congestion and delay in starting work, and the real economy has been hit hard.
Unexpectedly, the menacing epidemic has put layers of fog on China. As far as the automobile industry is concerned, although the impact of the epidemic is not as rapid and obvious as that of the tertiary industry, it is not small. A series of problems caused by the epidemic, such as the difficulty in resuming work in factories, the shortage of suppliers, the postponement of the Beijing Auto Show in 2020, the postponement of the listing plan of new cars, and the adjustment of annual sales targets, are all testing the automobile industry as an important part of the national economy.
Of course, winter has arrived, which means that spring will not be too far away. Judging from the data we collected, many enterprises in the automobile industry responded quickly and orderly to the challenges brought by the epidemic. Online resumption of work accounted for 39.8%, and offline resumption of work accounted for 48.5%. After two weeks of suspension, most enterprises, including some factories of SAIC, Jianghuai and BYD, have started to resume production.
The occurrence of coronavirus pneumonia-19 is easily reminiscent of SARS before 17, so before talking about the overall impact of the epidemic on the automobile market, let's review the automobile market in 2003.
According to the data released by the Association, the annual sales volume of automobiles in China in 2003 was 2195,400, an increase of 70% over 2002. The SARS epidemic occurred in the second quarter of 2003, and the car sales in this quarter were 526,654,38+0,000, accounting for 24% of the total sales in the whole year. That is to say, the SARS virus in that year did not make the car sales decline. However, in 2002-2003, the background was that private cars began to be popularized in China, and the automobile base was small, which was in an incremental period, and the growth was expected. In the past 17, today's China auto market is not what it used to be. According to statistics, by the end of 20 19, the number of cars in China was 260 million, and the annual sales scale has exceeded 25 million, more than ten times that of 2003. After the "cold winter" of 20 19, the emergence of coronavirus pneumonia-19 epidemic is bound to have an impact on the automobile market.
As for the impact, I don't know that Auto interviewed 200 autobots. Combining the voices of all parties and the online survey results, for the automobile industry, the epidemic has brought not only pain, but also the dawn of our industry in the future.
The epidemic situation impacts the automobile industry chain.
Delayed resumption of work, limited capacity of the main engine plant.
Yan Zhi Automobile has learned that all the 25 automobile producing provinces and cities in China, except Xinjiang, have issued notices to postpone the resumption of work in response to the epidemic. The most direct impact of the delay in the resumption of work of the main engine plant is that the production capacity is blocked, and the over-sales volume in1-February will be directly affected.
In addition, Hubei Province, which is at the center of the storm, is one of the automobile production centers in China. Automobile companies with factories in Hubei include Dongfeng Motor Group's Shenlong Automobile, Dongfeng Motor, Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Nissan and SAIC-GM.
Recently, insiders of Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. said in an interview: "At present, the whole epidemic has a great impact on all companies in Hubei. Now the company can't make an overall assessment, because the epidemic situation in Hubei is still severe, and the information released by the Hubei provincial government was not earlier than March 24 10. The impact on the company's operations is not good to make a final assessment. "
According to statistics, in 20 19, the automobile output in Hubei province was 2,247,500, accounting for about 9% of the total domestic output. By the end of 20 18, there were 1482 enterprises above designated size in Hubei automobile manufacturing industry, and the main business income of automobile industry was 666.3 billion yuan.
According to the analysis of China Chengxin International, 80% of Hubei's automobile production capacity is concentrated in Wuhan, covering 100% of Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Passenger Car and Dongfeng Renault, 76% of Shenlong Automobile and 23% of SAIC-GM. The impact of the epidemic on the national automobile production capacity is obvious.
The epidemic has blocked the supply chain of parts and affected the whole world.
A car consists of more than 1 ~ 20000 unassemblable independent parts, and the complex parts structure forms a huge automobile industry chain. According to statistics, there are more than1.3000 auto parts enterprises in Hubei province and more than1.3000 enterprises in China. Since 2065,438+04, the export volume of auto parts manufacturing industry has remained above 60 billion US dollars, and the participation of China auto parts enterprises in the global auto industry chain has gradually increased.
Affected by the epidemic situation in COVID-19, some auto parts enterprises are faced with the pressure of loan suspension and logistics difficulties, and face the risk of failing to perform their contracts. In our interview list, there is an automobile parts company in Wuhan, which is a secondary supplier of automobile air conditioning motors. The turnover in 20 19 was nearly1600,000 yuan, and the monthly sales at the beginning of last year was about150,000 yuan. Affected by the epidemic this year, the company stopped production for nearly one and a half months. In this regard, the general manager of the company said in an interview with us that he was more worried about the loss of customers than the economic loss of work stoppage. He said: "Many of our customers are from other places. I returned to work in early February because the shortage of goods urged me several times. But there is nothing we can do. Now customers are looking for peers to replace us. This is the last thing I want to see and the most painful. "
A survey of 2 12 spare parts enterprises by China Automobile Association shows that up to now, affected by the epidemic, the proportion of spare parts enterprises with losses ranging from 20 million yuan to 50 million yuan is 16%, with the highest loss reaching 2 billion yuan. Now, due to the delay in the resumption of work in Hubei automobile manufacturing industry, the loss of dissent will be further expanded.
The epidemic situation not only affects the survival of enterprises, but also affects the automobile industry chain around the world under the background of globalization. Japanese and Korean car companies' factories near China are the first to be affected. In early February, South Korean automakers Hyundai and Kia and Renault subsidiary RSM announced that they would suspend production in South Korea due to the interruption of parts supply in China. Coincidentally, in mid-February, Fiat Chrysler Automobile Company issued a warning that if China's parts suppliers could not resume production, one of its factories in Europe might be temporarily closed for two to four weeks. At present, the impact of the epidemic on the global automobile industry is gradually emerging. ?
Cold and cheerless physical stores and hot live broadcast rooms.
In China, a huge economy, the consumer market, as one of the Troika, was the hardest hit by the epidemic. As far as the automobile industry is concerned, the manufacturing link of automobile enterprises belongs to the secondary industry, but building cars is not the whole of the automobile industry. Automobile retail and automobile aftermarket fields such as finance, insurance and maintenance belong to the consumer industry, and most of these links need offline stores to complete.
According to the research report released by china automobile dealers association, before February of 12, only 302 of the 4S shops surveyed by more than 30 automobile dealer groups in more than ten provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities resumed work or partially resumed work, while over 700 4S shops did not or could not resume work, and the overall proportion of 4S shops started was 28.3%. Under such circumstances, the terminal sales in February can be imagined.
During the epidemic, in order to avoid the flow and contact of people as much as possible, many enterprises have launched online marketing methods such as "watching cars online" and "buying cars online", but for consumers, tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of consumer goods will be more cautious when choosing. Besides, cars are very different from other consumer goods. Driving experience is the main factor that users consider when buying a car, and test drive is an important part in the process of buying a car. Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Association, also said that online sales should not be the focus of the transformation of 4S stores, and the Internet should develop moderately and should not be developed as the main business.
Will the automobile industry usher in another spring?
What will happen to the automobile industry after the epidemic? Most people in the industry believe that after the epidemic, the long-suppressed automobile consumption will be released, which will have a positive impact on automobile sales.
The central government encourages automobile consumption.
On February 16, the national leaders put forward in Qiushi magazine that among the measures to stabilize residents' consumption, traditional bulk consumption such as automobiles should be actively stabilized, and areas where automobile purchases are restricted should be encouraged to appropriately increase the number of automobile license plates to promote the consumption of automobiles and related products.
It is definitely good news for promoting automobile consumption. As one of the pillar industries in China, it is very important to reduce the impact of epidemic situation and stimulate automobile consumption to improve the current predicament faced by the automobile industry.
A number of policies have been introduced? Decompression to save the market
In view of the weakening consumption power, on June 26, 65438, the Insurance Regulatory Commission of the Bank of China issued a notice to the people who temporarily lost their sources of livelihood due to the epidemic, giving appropriate tilt to the credit policy, flexibly adjusting the repayment arrangements of personal credit such as housing mortgage and credit card, and reasonably delaying the repayment period.
In addition, on February 20th, the Ministry of Commerce held a press conference, which made it clear that it would thoroughly implement the central government's important decision on "actively stabilizing traditional mass consumption such as automobiles" and the spirit of "Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on Accelerating the Development of Circulation to Promote Commercial Consumption", and work with relevant departments to study and introduce policies and measures to further stabilize automobile consumption and reduce the impact of the epidemic on automobile consumption.
Foshan became the first city to introduce an automobile consumption incentive policy in 2020, offering "real money and silver" to promote consumption. In order to stimulate local automobile consumption and reduce the impact of the epidemic on Foshan vehicle enterprises and parts enterprises, Foshan Water Affairs gives each newly purchased vehicle a financial subsidy scheme of 2,000-5,000 yuan, valid for 1 year. Subsequently, the Guangdong Provincial Government issued "Several Policies and Measures to Further Stabilize and Promote Employment", proposing to promote qualified cities to introduce subsidy policies for scrapping and updating old cars, and encouraging Guangzhou and Shenzhen to further relax the car lottery and auction indicators.
In view of the impact of the epidemic on automobile enterprises, China Automobile Industry Association submitted a proposal to the relevant departments to postpone the implementation of the national emission standard VI nationwide. "This can stabilize production and sales, prevent dealers from dumping the inventory of the fifth country when their lives are very tight, and reduce the bankruptcy of dealers due to inventory risks." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of Cui Dong Cycling Association, said.
"Be sure to buy a car after the epidemic."
After experiencing the inconvenience of road closure and unsafe traffic, some car-free families are stimulated to buy cars, and consumers will be more inclined to travel by private car. With the consent of the State Council, from February 17, 2020 to the end of epidemic prevention and control work, toll roads across the country will be exempted from vehicle tolls, which will reduce the travel cost of private cars and further stimulate people's desire for consumption.
Industry analysts pointed out that after the epidemic, the demand for car purchases will gradually recover, and may even break out in the second quarter of this year, which will benefit the entire industrial chain. Zeng Qinghong, chairman of Guangzhou Automobile Group, also said: "The automobile industry is different from catering and other service industries. The epidemic is more likely to delay demand and have a certain impact in the short term, but the overall situation is good. "
Write at the end:
For the automobile industry, the COVID-19 epidemic is both a challenge and an opportunity. The negative impact on production and consumption has become a reality, and the reshuffle of the industry is inevitable. However, after the epidemic, the accumulated demand and favorable policies were introduced one after another, so that the "autobots" in the cold winter also saw the dawn of hope.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.