Wen Hao Ott is driving? Wang shuoqi
According to the official news of Hubei on February 20th (yesterday), the time for all kinds of enterprises to resume work is not earlier than 24: 00 on March/kloc-0.
The official has made it clear when to resume work, and the attitude of some enterprises is more urgent. Honda Motor Company said today that it will postpone the resumption of work of its Wuhan automobile factory to March 1 1 and resume production in that week, which is only the first official working day.
There is no doubt that the epidemic has a great impact on Wuhan. Among the affected car brands, there are many popular cars with large sales volume. The consumption willingness of these popular cars has accumulated, which may become the driving force for the sharp rise of the auto market after the epidemic, but the demand cannot be converted into sales without the supply of goods, and the long-term suspension of trade unions has put great pressure on the tight models.
Everything has two sides. The epidemic destroyed the automobile market in the first quarter, but it may also achieve the performance in the second and third quarters. Don't be pessimistic too early. There are still opportunities in the automobile market, but automobile enterprises need to adapt to the trend and seize the opportunity. At present, the urgent task is to resume work quickly and increase production capacity quickly if permitted.
According to the data released by the China Automobile Association, Hubei's automobile production accounts for about 9% of the whole country. Its main passenger car brands include Dongfeng independent brand and joint venture brand, as well as SAIC-GM and GAC. In addition, parts brands include Delphi, Valeo, Faurecia, Lear, Yuanfeng and Federal-Mogul. And parts manufacturers including Toyota are also in Hubei, for example, Toyota Synthetic Gao Zhen Rubber Sealing Technology Co., Ltd.
After the measures to reduce the inventory pressure after the end of the year, the inventory of dealers will become the main problem to be faced next month, and enterprises that have been unable to produce for a long time, together with consumers who have been suppressed for a long time, will inevitably lead to a car buying boom, which will inevitably lead to changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the market, and the buyer's market will gradually change to the seller's market.
So which models are affected by this?
According to sales volume, Dongfeng Honda bears the brunt.
According to the data, on April 1 day, 2004, Dongfeng Honda No.1 Factory was put into production, and now it has formed a production scale of 240,000 vehicles. On July 12 and 10, the second factory of Dongfeng Honda was put into operation. According to the principle of one-time planning and phased implementation, the overall planned annual output of the second plant is 240,000 vehicles, and the annual output of the first phase of construction is 654.38+10,000 vehicles/year. In the later stage, the production capacity will be gradually expanded, and the overall production capacity of the two plants will eventually increase to 480,000 vehicles/year. On April 2019 12, the third factory of Dongfeng Honda was officially put into operation in Wuhan Economic and Technological Development Zone, which is also the third factory of Dongfeng Honda. The annual production capacity of No.3 Plant reaches 6.5438+0.2 million vehicles, which meets the production conditions of new energy vehicles.
Specific to the model, it is a compact Civic that is deeply loved by young people. From the once compact price increase king to the word-of-mouth in the air every second, this generation of Civic has reached an unprecedented height in sales, quality and word-of-mouth. Civic, which now raises its price on the pretext of not having a car, may really have no car now. Will the price increase again?
In addition, Zhi Jiajun also boldly predicted the hatchback Civic that Honda Powder paid attention to. Affected by this, there is a great possibility of not producing in the near future.
Of course, in addition to Civic, familiar models include CRV, INSPIRE, URV, Elysee and other popular models. Their influence and sales at all levels should not be underestimated. Starting construction and capacity climbing will become the top priority of Dongfeng Honda.
In addition to the fiery Honda, there is Dongfeng Nissan, which has been making a fortune.
Dongfeng Nissan's factory is not in Wuhan, but it is also in Xiangyang, where the epidemic is serious. It mainly produces models such as Loulan and Teana, and models made in Britain and finidi.
As of today, Nissan has not stated the specific date of returning to work.
From the analysis of vehicle sales, Loulan and finidi have little influence, while the brand-new Teana has a serious influence.
Since its launch, the brand-new Teana has won a good reputation with superior technologies such as high comprehensive quality and variable compression ratio engine, and its sales volume has been climbing all the way. By the end of last year, its two-month sales had exceeded 10,000, and the dealers had no existing cars. After this epidemic, the shortage will be more serious.
In addition, Dongfeng Nissan is also building the fifth production base in China in Wuhan, the center of the epidemic. The factory was originally planned to be completed in 2022 and may also be affected by the epidemic.
When it comes to Wuhan's automobile industry, Shenlong Automobile is an unavoidable topic. As for why it ranks third, French cars are really not strong in recent years.
At present, DPCA has two joint venture brands, Dongfeng Peugeot and Dongfeng Citroen, covering most models of PSA Group except ds. At present, the main models of Dongfeng Citroen brand are Tianyi C5? Yi Yun C4's AirCross? AirCross, new C3-XR, C6, C5, new C4L, C4 Sega, new Elysee; At present, the main models of Dongfeng Peugeot brand are 5008, 4008, 3008, 2008 and new generation 508L, 408 and 308, and the products cover SUV and several car market segments.
However, compared with Dongfeng Honda, the pressure of Shenlong seems to be much smaller, but it is also a kind of helplessness.
Whether it is Dongfeng Peugeot's new generation 508L or Citroen's new C4L, from the high expectation of listing to the existence of marginalization, the life of French cars has been really difficult in recent years, especially the average sales of the new generation 508L is less than 500 units a month, which is almost a disaster for a mid-level car of a joint venture brand.
Therefore, Shenlong automobile can resume production in an orderly way, which is just an opportunity to digest the inventory and calm down to reflect on what it has done wrong.
In addition to Dongfeng-related enterprises, SAIC also has related layouts in Wuhan.
According to the data, SAIC-GM Wuhan base is located in Jinkou, Jiangxia District. 20/kloc-0 laid the foundation stone on June 6th, February. The first-phase vehicles were completed and put into production on October 28th, 20 15/KLOC-0, and the second-phase factory construction started on the day of the first-phase production. The annual production capacity of 480,000 advanced vehicles planned in two phases has further strengthened the system strength of SAIC-GM's "intelligent manufacturing". On September 6th, 2065 438+06, the first-phase factory produced 500,000 brand-new Buick Hideo in only 19 months, with a production and sales rate as high as 98%. Chevrolet Cavalier produced by the second phase factory has also been successfully exported to the Mexican market.
Its main models include Buick Hideo, Lang Yue, GL6, Chevy Knight, Explorer and so on.
In recent years, GM's influence in China is declining. Both Buick and Chevrolet are taking the cost-effective route and still achieved good results. Under the huge market discount, the monthly sales volume of Yinglang at the end of the year is almost 30,000, and the Chevrolet models add up to 1 10,000.
After the epidemic, although GM's models have not reached the product strength of fare increase, compared with the end of the year, the reduction of concessions is also a high probability event.
In addition, GAC completed a factory in Yichang, Hubei last year (20 19). It is reported that this factory has a total investment of 3.53 billion yuan and a planned annual production capacity of 200,000 vehicles. At the same time, it produces automobile, new energy and intelligent networked products.
According to the report of China News Network in June last year, the first model produced by this factory is GAC Chuanqi brand-new GA6, and one can be produced in 52 seconds.
As far as product strength is concerned, GA6 is very good, balanced in all aspects, and space and intelligent networking have become the highlights. However, it has become a popular and unpopular model after listing, with an average monthly sales volume of 2,000 units. If one is produced in 52 seconds, it is necessary to clean up the inventory during the epidemic from June to now.
Of course, manufacturers are not stupid, and the output will always be adjusted according to the sales volume. In July last year, some media also revealed that more than half of the idle production capacity of the plant, so this epidemic will not have a great impact on GAC Chuanqi.
In addition, in addition to the passenger car brands with large sales volume, Dongfeng Independent Series and other commercial vehicles and special purpose vehicle brands close to 100 will also be affected, but due to the small sales volume, I won't go into details.
The influence of spare parts seems to be greater, because it affects not only Wuhan's automobile industry, but also neighboring manufacturers such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Hunan and Guangdong. Many automobile brands will face different degrees of spare parts shortage.
Therefore, in general, the most affected brand models in Hubei are all models with better sales in the market, including some models of Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Nissan and SAIC-GM. As for whether popular models such as Civic will raise prices again, we will know the answer in March.
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This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.