how hard do local governments work to boost the auto market?
Recently, a netizen in a city in Hubei said that in order to stimulate consumption, the local government has issued a document to organize civil servants to buy cars.
It seems that it is not a case to mobilize public servants to buy cars. According to a netizen in Liuzhou, Guangxi, on April 27, Liuzhou issued a notice on the activities of public organizations to buy Wuling new energy vehicles.
Some netizens commented on this, "It's not easy for civil servants. When the real estate is in a downturn, they are also taken by the unit leaders to buy a house. If they don't buy it, they will not be given a provident fund."
Indeed, in COVID-19's raging world, there is no word "easy". The tourism industry has stopped, the education and training are across the board, the physical catering has lost money, and the "migrant workers" on the Internet have been laid off ... I thought people in the system were the happiest, but now it seems that institutional people are inevitably involved in institutional affairs.
Others in the industry believe that the measures to encourage civil servants are not absolutely brilliant, but they are not mistakes. After all, in the last two months, according to channel related people, most of the people who concentrated in the store were those government agencies and units with stable income and no need to worry about work safety.
A salesperson from a 4S store in Guangdong said that in recent months, the customers he received were basically civil servants or people without mortgage pressure. Moreover, these people basically choose the full amount, and the proportion of loans to buy a car is very low.
if civil servants use it well, it may really give the auto market a breath.
NO.1
[ Local governments are full of strange tricks ]
Regarding the case of "forcing" civil servants and government agencies to buy cars, we failed to verify the scale, but there is a real situation, that is, local governments are carrying arduous KPI to stimulate car purchases.
The executive meeting of the State Council held on April 3rd proposed to expand consumption in key areas and encourage large-scale consumption of automobiles and household appliances. In response to the call of superiors, since mid-April, local governments at the provincial and municipal levels have carried out various stimulus measures.
using civil servants is one of them, although it is not new. In 2112, in order to boost the housing market, Yingkou, Liaoning Province gave 51,111 yuan of housing subsidies to more than 1,111 civil servants and institutions, which was very obvious to save the market.
In addition, many local governments are actively saving the market by issuing coupons.
For example, all four districts in Shenzhen have introduced 51 million yuan automobile consumption subsidies respectively, and the total amount of subsidies has reached 211 million yuan. Shandong Province issued 151,111 car purchase vouchers, accounting for 511 million yuan, while Changchun, the "automobile city", issued 51 million yuan car purchase vouchers.
the line-up of issuing money is still expanding.
in addition to the cities listed in the above table, there are also many places such as Taiyuan, Shanxi, Jinhua, Zhejiang, Chengdu, Sichuan, etc., which have issued consumer vouchers including the automobile field.
On the whole, the coupons of 1,111 yuan and 11,111 yuan did have a very obvious stimulating effect. More precisely, in various cities where coupons are issued, there has been a phenomenon of rushing to grab the number of coupons.
On the eve of May 21th, Xinwu District, Wuxi City announced that it would issue a coupon of RMB11 million for new energy vehicles. The next day, in a BYD 4S store in Wuxi, consumers queued up until midnight.
A BYD store in Wuxi queued up in the middle of the night.
The store's sales told Auto Sankei:
"521 received 111 orders one night, ten times as much as usual."
"Although the subsidy is distributed by lottery, the winning rate is only 31%, but the temptation is still very strong." The sales said.
The sales of a store in Changchun also reflected a similar situation: "Because the quota is first come, first served, everyone is in a hurry. There are about 8,111 cars in Changchun. If you place an order one month later, don't consider the subsidy. It must be gone. "
Futian district in Shenzhen has been unable to grab the car coupons. Although the time limit for collecting coupons indicated in the announcement of Futian District is about three months,
the coupons have been collected in less than one month.
An automobile analyst commented on this round of local policies, "For so many years, local governments have been very experienced in implementing stimulus policies, and they all know how to prescribe the right medicine on the data of the Bureau of Statistics. Guangdong has a relatively high number of cars, so it will implement trade-in for new ones. The Shandong market has more potential, so car-free families are encouraged to buy cars. "
to sum up, most of the municipal places that choose to issue automobile coupons belong to first-and second-tier cities. Comparatively speaking, low-tier cities are more inclined to hold local auto shows and car culture festivals.
according to incomplete statistics of automobile production and marketing, cities that have held local auto shows since April 3rd include Guigang, Guangxi, Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, Dezhou, Shandong and Chengde, Hebei.
most of them use joint car companies to compensate the people with weak consumption, so as to stimulate the automobile market. Unlike the first-and second-tier cities, which have a coupon collection period of tens of days, the preferential collection period set by these small cities is mostly two or three days.
The stimulation effect is also obvious.
take Chengde, Hebei province as an example. From April 23rd to 24th, during the Huimin Auto Show, the Chengde government provided a fuel card and a cash lottery with a maximum of RMB 1.5 million on the basis of the preferential price offered by the automobile manufacturers. The auto show * * * won 783 intentional transactions, amounting to RMB 21 million, of which 423 were confirmed, with a turnover of RMB 63.45 million.
NO.2
[ short-term support for sales is difficult to get back on track for a long time ]
At present, local policies have a certain role in promoting the recovery of the automobile market, but the Federation believes that it can only support short-term sales because of its short duration.
According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from May 1 to 22, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 781,111, which was still in a downward trend year-on-year, with a drop rate of 1.6%. On the bright side, the decline has narrowed by 22% compared with the same period of last month, and the chain has increased by 34% compared with the same period of last month.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Federation, said that the decline in car sales in this round is multifaceted. Recently, the income of some residents has decreased after the epidemic, which in turn affects consumption; Under the control of the epidemic and risk aversion, nearly 81% of consumers passively or actively reduce travel and delay car purchase; At the same time, dealers closed stores in a large area, and passenger flow and orders shrank rapidly.
Cui Dongshu specifically pointed out:
Even in areas where there were no new cases in the last two months, the decline in sales continued.
in addition, the price of new cars is rising in the automobile market. In the past, consumers' cognition was that buying cars was getting cheaper and cheaper, but now it runs counter to it. Almost all new energy vehicles launched by auto companies have different price increases, ranging from thousands to tens of thousands of yuan.
at this stage, consumers are extremely sensitive to the increase.
A Weimar car salesman in Xinwu District of Wuxi told us that although Xinwu District issued coupons, it only promoted the sales of Weimar E.5.
"EX5 and W6 still can't be sold, because both cars have increased in price this year, and issuing coupons won't help."
The sales of BYD in Wuxi mentioned above are also "not optimistic" about the situation, even though his store was "crowded" on the day of 521. He said:
"People who come to the queue are already optimistic about the models, and the coupons only let these willing people place orders faster."
Cui Dongshu said that local stimulus policies have certain effects, but the sustainable recovery of the terminal still needs stronger stimulus policies.
However, many people are cautious about the policy of going to the countryside by car and the policy of "61 billion purchase tax reduction".
they think that at present, industrial production and consumption in cities have stopped partly, which has greatly affected migrant workers and reduced their income. As a commodity, cars go to the countryside, and the market response is hard to predict.
as for the "combination boxing" with purchase tax relief, it is true that the China market has successfully stimulated the vitality of the automobile market: in 2119, China implemented a number of policy combinations such as "purchase tax relief+cars going to the countryside+trade-in", and the automobile sales in 2119 increased by nearly 46%; After the implementation of policies such as purchase tax reduction and exemption in October 2115, the automobile market also achieved a sales growth of nearly 14% in 2116.
according to professional analysis, the success of the first two times can not be separated from a background, that is, the automobile industry base was low at that time. Today, however, the situation is that "the peak of annual automobile sales is likely to have stayed in 2117 five years ago, that is, nearly 29 million vehicles."
this professional believes that referring to the situation in western countries, automobile sales can't increase after reaching a certain stage. The United States sold about 17 million cars in 2111, and then it could not surpass the high point. In 2121, the sales volume was about 15 million.
In addition, all western developed countries (the United States, Australia, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, etc.) have two important indicators-
The annual mileage per vehicle and the annual driving distance per capita have been decreasing since about 2114.
"This shows that after the car ownership reaches a certain level, people will no longer increase car consumption. I think that China is likely to have reached this stage. " He said.
But no matter how important the policy is, one thing is certain: with policy support, the pressure on car companies and consumers will be much less. Especially for car companies, in the face of this adversity with unknown length of time and unknown depth of shock, someone can help, at least to increase the courage and confidence of local breakthroughs.