Yang Chang, chief analyst of the Zhongtai Securities Research Institute, told China Business News that for the government to issue consumption vouchers, it is more the behavior of the local government, and for the real consumption vouchers, it is actually the local government to increase the leverage, and use the financial resources to transfer payments to the residents. This has a positive significance for the residents' disposable capacity.
However, Yang Chang believes that at this stage, many consumption coupons are not really consumption coupons, but a means of promotion, this for merchants sales have a certain role in driving the role of disposable income for residents is still limited.
Some of the vouchers issued by these cities are not really government-issued vouchers, although they are activities organized in the name of the government, but are promotional vouchers for joint promotions by merchants.
For example, on Dec. 8, the fourth "Enjoy Lanzhou? Shopping in the Golden City" activity was officially launched, taking the "government on the stage, enterprises singing, government, bank and enterprise interaction" approach, funded by China UnionPay Gansu Branch 20 million yuan through the cloud flash payment platform to issue six kinds of consumer vouchers such as supermarkets, food and beverage.
In fact, China UnionPay has been y involved in the activities of issuing consumption vouchers around the world.
On December 10, Bayannur City in Inner Mongolia issued 10 million yuan of consumption vouchers, the use of which is for accommodation and catering, daily necessities and electrical appliances, large supermarkets, refined oil consumption and other physical stores. Bayannaoer City, the city's financial investment in trade and circulation industry to promote consumption of 2 million yuan, the banners and counties and district governments to match the funds of 5 million yuan, China UnionPay Inner Mongolia Branch invested 3 million yuan.
December 17 to 26, Zhengzhou City will unite the city's key food districts, shopping centers, brand catering enterprises *** with the Zhengzhou City, "Taste of the Central Plains" Food Festival, the launch of a special food bazaar, featured dishes, rechargeable full of free, discounts, warm winter snacks blind box and other activities, and the UnionPay The "cloud flash payment" cooperation issued 5 million yuan catering consumption coupons.
Boosting consumption is a long-term problem
"The issuance of consumption vouchers is suitable for restoring confidence in the market after the epidemic, and solving the problem of consumers not daring to go out after the epidemic. But it is not very realistic to sustain it in the long term, and the marginal effect will diminish." Ou Jianwei said.
She believes that the consumer psychology and demand in the new retail era now tends to consume for the sake of things rather than for the sake of things, and that ordinary consumption is a necessity and just demand, while festivals and events are incremental consumption. In order to boost consumption, the government can also consider organizing specific festivals and events to create a festive atmosphere and boost consumption.
The main purpose of issuing consumption vouchers around the world, whether it is to promote consumption recovery after the epidemic or to sprint for the end-of-year peak season, is fundamentally to boost consumption and expand its contribution to economic growth.
Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a recent news conference that from the point of view of China's economic development, the contribution of consumption to economic growth declined last year due to the impact of the epidemic, and this year's contribution of consumption to economic growth is steadily improving. Meanwhile, investment is also improving. Overall, the contribution of domestic demand to economic growth has remained at a high level. In the first three quarters, the contribution of domestic demand to economic growth exceeded 80 percent.
However, while consumption's contribution to economic growth has improved, it has also been hit by a number of reasons, including the epidemic.
National Bureau of Statistics data show that the epidemic spread in many places on the consumer market impact is more obvious. in November, the new crown pneumonia epidemic occurred in many places in the country, the impact on residents' consumption, especially food and beverage and other aggregated consumption, the market slowed down the growth rate of sales. in November, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.9% year-on-year, the growth rate fell by 1 percentage point compared with October, of which catering revenues from the growth to decline.
Yang Chang said, from the two-year time span to observe, consumption is still in the repair channel, compared with November 2019, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in November this year, two years year-on-year growth of 7.7%, of which the price of the factor rose by 2.3%, the volume of the factor rose by 5.4%, the volume of the growth is still continuing. However, from a short-term one-year perspective, there are signs of weakening consumption. Converted social zero month-on-month growth of 4.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
He believes that the role of consumption in economic growth, has been repaired to normalized levels, the role is still relatively obvious. Boosting consumption, we need to continue to promote reforms in areas such as education, health care and housing, to reduce the cost end of the population, and to enhance the real disposable income of residents.
Liu Zhibiao, business school of Nanjing University, said to the first financial, the issuance of consumption vouchers for the solution of short-term problems is effective, but to promote consumption in the long term also lies in raising income levels, the fundamental also lies in productivity gains. The government's measures are effective, but the current local government finances are also under pressure, so they need to compress spending and push forward their own reforms.
Fu Linghui said at the aforementioned conference that consumption has been disturbed by the epidemic in the past two years. But from a general point of view, the trend of consumption upgrading is continuing. In the next stage, there are many favorable conditions for the recovery of the consumer market. First, China's employment situation remains stable, corporate profits to maintain rapid growth, the increase in residents' income is guaranteed. Secondly, the market is powerful and effective in maintaining supply and stabilizing prices, consumer prices are generally rising moderately, and consumer expectations are generally stable. Third, the gradual recovery of the economy and the continuous improvement of social security are also conducive to strengthening consumer confidence. The first three quarters of the per capita income of residents, transfer income to maintain rapid growth.