According to institutional research, in the past two years, due to the shortage of live pigs, the price of live pigs in the market rose sharply, which also ushered in a historic "spring" for farmers. At that time, the average profit of farmers who slaughtered pigs reached 2500 ~ 3000 yuan, while in the previous pig cycle, the average profit of pig heads was only 1000 yuan/head. It can be seen that this round of pig cycle is affected by the non-epidemic situation and the downward trend of pig cycle, which overlaps in many places in China.
However, with the accelerated release of domestic pig production capacity, pig prices continued to fall. At present, domestic pig breeding is facing different degrees of losses. Many farmers lost seven or eight hundred yuan in pig slaughter, and the profit of pig breeding dropped sharply, and pig breeding entered the "cold winter" ahead of schedule!
According to official data, as of July, the number of live pigs and fertile sows in China has recovered to 10 1.6% and 100.2% at the end of 2007, and the market pig production capacity has fully recovered, which has been greatly released by the supply of live pigs. Although it entered the "golden autumn" in September, the decline in pig prices will still be very prominent!
19 September, the Mid-Autumn Festival is coming on August 13 of the lunar calendar, and the National Development and Reform Commission has also made it clear that a new round of pork storage plan has been launched, and as many as 17 provinces and cities across the country have taken the lead in storage. Although pork storage is conducive to stabilizing the supply of live pigs in the market, it is expected that pork consumption in the downstream of the Mid-Autumn Festival market will rebound. However, judging from the performance of pigs in the market, the price of pigs is not satisfactory!
Supported by many favorable factors, the decline of pig price gradually narrowed, but the market rise was blocked. /kloc-on 0/9, the pig price stabilized sideways, and the market stabilized by 6.25438+0 yuan/kg! The root of limiting the rebound of pig prices is still the loose supply of pigs in the market, the sufficient supply of downstream pork, the less than expected consumption of pork, and a certain stalemate in the market. Slaughterhouse enterprises do not have the basis for raising prices and collecting pigs! However, as the domestic temperature gradually turned cold, the market sentiment gradually picked up, and the demand for pork at the consumer end gradually boosted. It is expected that the price of pigs will be stable and strong. So, does this mean that the downward cycle of the current pig cycle has ended and the rising cycle of pig prices is coming soon?
According to industry analysis, due to the continuous decline in pig prices in the third quarter and the acceleration of inefficient production capacity in the market, the number of sows decreased for the first time in July. However, with the bottom of the pig price falling, the elimination of sows by farmers has gradually intensified, which is another manifestation of the pig cycle. So, is this pig cycle?
In this regard, industry insiders analyzed that due to the growth of pig scale, the market pig production capacity fully recovered in July, and the next 4-6 months will also be the stage of full recovery of market pigs. Therefore, the supply of live pigs is still in the stage of inertial growth, and the current pig cycle is still not over, and the pig price still has the basis of continuing to fall. However, due to the peak season of pork consumption in the third and fourth quarters, it has certain support for pig prices and is expected to enter 2022.
The production capacity of pigs was released, and the price of pigs fell to the "bottom line". Is the rising cycle approaching? Expert: Not until the end! What do you think of this? The above is my personal opinion!