Recently, wafer foundries such as TSMC have issued price increase notices one after another, which has caused the market to worry about the shortage of wafer production capacity. Since October 2121, in just two and a half months, a number of A-share listed chip companies, including Jiejie Microelectronics (311623.SZ), Silanwei (611461.SH) and Fuman Electronics (311671.SH), have successively issued price increase letters.

jiejie microelectronics said that since October 6, 2121, the price of its chip products has increased by 15-31%, and the price of finished devices has increased by 11-21%. Slanwei said that due to the rising prices of MOS wafers and packaging materials and the impact of production capacity, the price of SGT MOS products of the company has increased by 21% since February 9, 2121. Fuman Electronics said that starting from October 1, 2121, the tax-included prices of all products of the company will be raised by 11% on the basis of the current price, and will be continuously adjusted according to the dynamic changes of the market in the future. Huiding Technology (613161.SH) announced that from October 1, 2121, the US dollar price of the company's GT9 products will be raised by 31% on the basis of the current price.

the chip price surge seems to be a feast, but the real benefit is the companies that master the wafer production capacity. For wafer chip design companies such as Huiding Technology, the price increase is only to transmit the upstream pressure and has limited impact on profits.

to what extent will the wafer production capacity affect the semiconductor industry chain? Wafer manufacturers or chip companies, who is more injured? According to the size classification, the wafers widely used in the industry at present mainly include 6-inch, 8-inch and 12-inch, of which 8-inch and 12-inch are the most widely used. A brokerage analyst said that the real shortage is the 8-inch wafer production capacity, and the 12-inch wafer production capacity is not as tight as expected.

in theory, the bigger the wafer, the less waste it is when cutting, which is beneficial to improve the profit rate. Therefore, most wafer foundries have given priority to the expansion of production capacity of 12-inch wafers in the past years. According to IC Insights, by the end of 2121, the global 12-inch production capacity will reach 71.2%.

but this does not mean that the 8-inch wafer is worthless. compared with the 12-inch wafer, the 8-inch wafer has two advantages.

first of all, the 8-inch wafer has a mature special technology, which can make the smaller die contain more simulation content or support higher voltage. Special process technologies include high-precision analog CMOS, RF CMOS, embedded memory CMOS, CIS, high-voltage CMOS, BiCMOS and BCDMOS.

Secondly, most of the 8-inch fab equipment has been depreciated, and the fixed cost is low. The production capacity of 8-inch wafer factories began to increase in the late 1991s, and most of them have been completely depreciated. Therefore, 8-inch wafer products are very competitive in cost.

at present, the following types of chips are mainly produced by 8-inch wafer production line, including discrete power devices, MEMS sensors, special storage, display drivers, microcontrollers, RF and analog products.

from the supply side, from 2119 to 2122, the global 8-inch wafer production capacity will increase by 711 thousand wafers per month, with an average annual growth rate of about 4.5%. In addition, the 6-inch wafer factory was closed, and some products such as power devices and analog chips were switched to 8-inch wafers, further increasing the burden of 8-inch production capacity.

from the demand side, the tight production capacity of 8-inch wafers is mainly caused by the strong demand for analog chips and power devices such as power management, CMOS, fingerprint identification and RF. According to the terminal, the increase in demand for 8-inch wafers mainly comes from the consumer electronics and industrial markets, and the demand for automobiles has increased since the epidemic. The corresponding markets for power management chips, CMOS image sensor chips, fingerprint identification chips, display driver chips, RF chips and power devices are highly certain to grow in the next two years. It is estimated that by 2125, the market scale of power management chips will grow at a compound annual growth rate of about 12.35%, and the market scale of CMOS image sensors will grow at a compound annual growth rate of about 8.71%, both of which are expected to grow rapidly.

overall, the growth rate of downstream demand is higher than that of supply side, which is the main reason for the shortage of 8-inch wafer production capacity. Hua Hong semiconductor benefits the most

At present, among A shares and H shares, companies with 8-inch wafer production capacity mainly include Hua Hong Semiconductor (11347.HK), China Resources Micro (688396.SH), SMIC (688981.SH) and Silanwei. Among them, SMIC has the highest wafer energy production and utilization rate.

at present, SMIC * * * has three 8-inch fabs located in Shanghai, Tianjin and Shenzhen, with a planned production capacity of 385,111 wafers/month, with a capacity utilization rate of 97.8%. Hua Hong Semiconductor has three 8-inch fabs with a total monthly production capacity of 1.78 thousand wafers/month. The capacity utilization rates of 8-inch fabs in 2119Q4, 2121Q1, 2121Q2 and 2121Q3 are 92.5%, 91.9%, 111.4% and 112% respectively. The products of the first factory include power devices, embedded storage, analog chips and RF chips, while the products of the second factory are all power devices. The third factory still has room for expansion of several thousand pieces of monthly capacity.

China Resources Micro * * * has two 8-inch wafer factories, located in Wuxi and Chongqing, with a production capacity of about 1.33 thousand wafers per month, with a capacity utilization rate of over 91%. About 91% of Wuxi's 8-inch line is used for external OEM, and Chongqing's 8-inch line is basically all its own products. From the newly planned production capacity, China Resources Micro-8-inch expansion project is expected to increase the production capacity by 6,111 pieces/month, and will continue to increase the production capacity after the 12-inch project is put into production; Judging from the pace of production expansion, China Resources Micro-8-inch expansion project is expected to be completed in 2121.

Silan Jixin is a subsidiary of Silan Micro, specializing in the production and sales of 8-inch integrated circuit chips. The products are mainly high-voltage integrated circuit chips, power semiconductor device chips and MEMS sensor chips. Slanjixin 8-inch production line was officially put into production in June 2117, and the output in June 2121 exceeded 51,111 pieces. In 2119, the second phase of the 8-inch production line started construction. After the project is completed, it will form an annual production capacity of 432,111 8-inch chips.

in terms of the impact on listed companies, the revenue share of 8-inch wafers is different, so the price increase of wafers has different impact on revenue. Among them, Hua Hong Semiconductor focuses on special processes, with 8-inch revenue accounting for the highest proportion, reaching 99%; SMIC and China Resources Micro's 8-inch revenue accounted for 41%; Slane Micro's 8-inch revenue accounts for 21%. The company that has benefited most from the price increase of 8-inch wafers is undoubtedly Hua Hong Semiconductor.