Affected and impacted by the epidemic, the global economy has also fallen into serious paralysis and depression, and the supply chain has been broken on a large scale. Especially in developed countries in Europe and America, whether it is a production enterprise or a business enterprise, it is noisy to close down, close down, be laid off, go bankrupt and close down. As a result, almost all foreign trade in the world has stopped.
Obviously, this year's foreign trade export work will face a huge test and a heavy burden. It is obviously impossible to rely on foreign trade exports to stimulate economic growth. The exit in the "Troika" has completely become a car that can't walk this year. There is no doubt that we need to rely on domestic demand to stabilize economic growth. So many people are asking, what is the driving force for stimulating domestic demand? Who does it take to stimulate domestic demand? Workers? Farmers? Still rich?
This year, foreign trade enterprises and enterprises that mainly export products and need to rely on foreign enterprises to provide supporting products are facing the most difficult moment. Many enterprises have lost their orders, or the orders cannot be fulfilled on schedule. Is it possible to turn them into domestic sales? Whether the domestic market has enough affordability requires enterprises to increase market research and development. And those enterprises that need to rely on imported parts, especially main parts, are also facing serious difficulties and need to wait for the results of foreign epidemic prevention and control. Even if the epidemic situation is controlled, the enterprises that provide spare parts will have a recovery process, and it is estimated that the fastest recovery time will take 3-6 months. For enterprises, this can't wait. Whether domestic components can be used or not is a problem. Therefore, it is almost impossible to stimulate economic growth by exports, if it is not a serious drag, it will be good. It's just impossible not to delay. Naturally, we need to rely on domestic demand to stabilize economic growth and employment.
So, where is the driving force for stimulating domestic demand? Obviously, this is not the workers, farmers or rich people mentioned in some questions, but every consumer in China, including enterprises, residents and all people with spending power.
At present, the most important thing is that enterprises return to production and employees return. For the first two months affected by the epidemic, we can take it as a rest, a recharge and a refueling. Especially when the local epidemic situation has been effectively controlled and the epidemic prevention and control has mainly turned to preventing importation, more time and energy should be devoted to the work of enterprises and employees returning to work, especially the return to work and re-employment, and the focus should be on improving the return to work and re-employment rate. As long as the efficiency of these two aspects reaches a higher level, economic growth and social stability will be guaranteed.
In the long run, we should give full play to the pulling effect of consumption on economic growth, make full use of the huge domestic market and consumer demand, and do a good job in this article, so that consumption can play a greater role in economic growth and effectively make up for the gap left by exports. Especially in the fields of culture, tourism, catering, education, agricultural sightseeing, etc., it is necessary to speed up the start-up and increase consumption through certain policy means. The pulling effect of consumption on economic growth is not only reflected in the response to the epidemic, but also an article that must be done well for a long time. On this basis, we will further exert the power of policies, restart consumption, and show the glory of consumption.
Domestic demand, of course, is the basic consumer group of workers and peasants. It is unlikely that the rich will stimulate consumption. On the one hand, their consumption is high-grade, and many products are imported. Therefore, they are stimulating foreign consumption and consumption in other countries; On the other hand, they like going abroad, including traveling and shopping, which also drives consumption in other countries. Therefore, consumption can only rely on workers and peasants and the most basic consumer groups. Of course, corporate consumption is also very important, including productive consumption and daily consumption. The power of enterprise consumption is great, and if it is played well, it will have a great impact on residents' consumption.
In short, under the impact and influence of the epidemic, the role of exports will be greatly reduced, and imports will also face great pressure. Therefore, it is the key to play the role of domestic demand and stimulate the economy with consumption at present and in the future.
Domestic demand can stimulate the economy, but if there is no foreign trade export, our domestic demand will be pale and weak, and it is difficult for economic growth to remain positive.
In the troika of consumption, investment and export. At present, consumption has the greatest pulling effect on economic growth, while exports have the least pulling effect. However, we can't ignore this pulling effect. The contribution rate of net exports to GDP growth in the first half of 20 19 was 20.7%.
In addition to the analysis of figures and trends, we can also observe the current situation of the national economy and see the pulling effect of foreign trade or exports on China's economy.
At present, China can fully resume work, and basically all enterprises can resume production. However, we found that many foreign trade enterprises began to have a holiday, not because we could not produce, but because there were problems in the export target countries, such as Europe and America, which were blocked and could not receive orders.
This is a great blow to our foreign trade enterprises. Many friends have left messages saying that they are engaged in foreign trade and have already started their holidays. A friend also said that one of his customers was Italian, and this customer had died in the COVID-19 epidemic, so there was no way to execute the order.
If the foreign epidemic continues to ferment. Then their demand and their import volume will not go up, and the harm to our foreign trade enterprises will be too great. When a foreign trade enterprise closes down, there may be hundreds of families, thus losing their income. Without income, it is impossible to stimulate consumption. If too many employees in foreign trade enterprises are unemployed, where will our domestic demand develop?
This time, COVID-19 actually made us lose a lot of exports. If we really don't export, we will rely entirely on domestic demand and investment to boost the economy. If we want to maintain positive economic growth, we need to pay a considerable price. We need to put the intensity of economic stimulus very large, which requires a process.
But expanding domestic demand is also the direction of our economic reform. Before that, our dependence on foreign trade was too high. The name "world factory" can no longer promote the sustainable development of our economy, so we need to transform to consumption. The past few years will be a crucial period. Perhaps this epidemic has just promoted our economic transformation.
At present, it seems very difficult to rely entirely on domestic demand to maintain economic growth, and it will take at least several years of economic transformation.
This year's domestic demand still needs the consumption of ordinary people to stimulate domestic demand. Stimulating domestic demand For the rich, there may be cars and houses, so consumption may not be much, and if ordinary people buy cars and houses, it is very obvious to stimulate the economy.
We still need to stimulate domestic demand this year.
We still need to stimulate domestic demand this year. A country's economic growth has a troika, one is export, the other is consumption, and the third is investment. Affected by the epidemic this year, the demand of developed countries such as Europe and the United States is not smooth, and the situation of foreign trade export to Europe and the United States this year may not be very good. However, if you export medical and epidemic prevention products such as masks, ventilators and protective clothing, it is estimated that as long as you can get better quality goods, you can earn a lot. However, epidemic prevention products may be only a small part after all, and many products exported to Europe and America may be affected.
It can be seen that due to the serious epidemic situation in Europe and America this year, foreign trade exports may face a more difficult situation this year. Therefore, if our economy wants to grow satisfactorily, we still need to stimulate domestic demand to stimulate our economic growth.
Domestic demand still depends on the people.
Of course, stimulating domestic demand still depends on the general public. Ma Yun and other rich people can certainly spend money, but although their consumption is much higher than that of ordinary people, they basically don't need to buy a car or a house. In this case, if they actually just eat and wear, they are sometimes frugal, and they may contribute no more than ordinary people.
In the current consumption field, houses and cars are still the two major consumption blocks. If we can start the consumption of big commodities such as houses and cars, it will be very obvious for the country to stimulate domestic demand.
For ordinary people, buying a house can meet the needs of improving the living environment, and buying a car can meet the requirements of convenient travel. It can be said that this is the dream of many people to work. And these two things may also cost many people years of savings.
Therefore, in general, it is up to ordinary people to stimulate domestic demand. If we can start the consumption of houses and cars, it may have a greater pulling effect on the whole economy.
Therefore, stimulating domestic demand is essentially a chicken and egg problem. If you have money, encourage consumption, but give them confidence. People who have no money need to find ways to make them rich, which requires stable employment and a stable private economy. With stable employment and stable income, domestic demand will be boosted. If the donkey wants to run, it must feed the grass first.
conclusion
To sum up, due to the epidemic this year, the demand in Europe and the United States is not strong, which may affect exports. Therefore, it is necessary to stimulate domestic demand this year, or to stimulate domestic demand by ordinary people, mainly the demand for cars and houses, which will play a greater role in stimulating the entire national economy.
Without foreign trade export, can domestic demand stimulate economic growth? I replied that if the economy is boosted by domestic demand, prices will skyrocket first, and then a large number of people will return to the countryside without jobs, or the currency will depreciate indefinitely, but now the market can't accept soaring prices. Why?
First of all, we must rely on the domestic demand economy now. First of all, stop enterprises from layoffs, salary cuts and so on. To prevent layoffs and pay cuts, enterprises must make money. The only way for enterprises to make money is to drive up prices, because it is impossible to win by quantity. Who is short of products that they think must be consumed now?
Second, we must rely on domestic demand. We have to let the factories in coastal cities that rely on batch economy survive. It turns out that they rely on low prices and multiple orders. At present, there is only domestic demand, and the large-scale decline in orders will inevitably lead to price increases. Then, once the epidemic is over, there is no need to export it in the future, and it may be cost-effective to import everything. The whole country lives on bonds, just like America now.
Third, now that prices are rising, people are becoming afraid and fearful. A large area of products, food, various ways of exchanging foreign exchange, gold, silver and so on. At that time, employment may be unstable, domestic demand may be unstable, and the currency may collapse.
Fourth, it is a problem to drive up prices and eat when you are unemployed. Those who have not been paid a salary cut can't survive in daily life. Let's all go back to the countryside to drive up industrial products and services, and agricultural products will also rise in a large area. This year, we also encountered the problem that the Republic of China banned the export of grain. If nothing goes wrong, I'm really sorry for the farmers.
China's rapid economic development for 40 years is not because China people can suddenly innovate, but because China people are not good at innovation. There are only four great inventions in the 5,000-year history of civilization, and the contribution to human scientific and technological progress in the past 500 years has been zero. The rapid development of China in the past 40 years has benefited from the reform and opening up.
Due to the reform and opening up, China has become the second largest economy, and its per capita GDP is close to the world average. During the global epidemic in COVID-19, hundreds of countries directly received assistance to fight the epidemic.
With the reform and opening up, China has been integrated into the world economic system and become a part of the world industrial chain, value chain and supply chain. China's aid to the world is also self-cultivation, and so is the world.
China's reform and opening up has made China a world factory, and 60% of the production capacity of most epidemic prevention and anti-epidemic materials is in China. China factory produces for the world, and China takes the lead in becoming a manufacturing power in the international economic division. Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim, Chengdu-Chongqing and Central Plains urban agglomerations have mushroomed with factories, which are the foundation of China's economy.
After the attempted epidemic, hiding in the small building became narrow and unified. China must adhere to and lead globalization, dance with the world, and show China's responsibility and strength. China's domestic demand has accumulated for five years after experiencing a series of problems, such as the real estate bubble, the decline of automobile production and sales, the blocked overtaking plan of new energy vehicles in corners, the weak consumption of the people, the slow development of 5G applications, the huge debt accumulation of TieGong Ji, and the CPI exceeding 5% ... China's economy must be opened to the world if it is to continue its great rejuvenation.
The improvement of consumption capacity depends on the improvement of labor productivity, which lies in scientific and technological progress and industrial structure adjustment. Only when the added value of labor is high can it become a developed country. To improve consumption capacity, we must further reform and opening up. Always look at the world instead of closing the door.
Let me ask a question first: What is the main driving force for economic growth?
That is the troika-export, investment and consumption.
Then the problem is coming. First, the export car has oil, but there is no smooth road ahead, or even no road. What should you do? Looking back at the first half of 20 19, the contribution rate of net exports to GDP growth was 20.7%;
Second, investment, in short, what is investment? Give what? Since 2008, the government has taken real estate as the main tone of economic growth. What does society need? What did the government give you? Let's look back. What have you contributed to the rapid development in recent years? -Debt (loan to buy a house) At present, this period of time is the peak period of repayment, but there is no economic source, the loan is not repaid, and the bank has a large area of bad debts (what will happen if it opens a brain? )。 In other words, what will the government invest to activate the market and continue to operate at a high speed?
The third consumption, as we all know, is to upgrade leisure consumption.