Investigation Report on Commercial Real Estate in Xining City in 2007

1. Basic overview

1. 1 Introduction to Xining

Xining, the capital of Qinghai Province, is located between the north and south mountains of Hehuang Valley on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and belongs to Qilian Mountains. Huangshui River, a tributary of the Yellow River, runs through the city from west to east. The total area of the city is 7665 square kilometers, the urban area is 350 square kilometers and the built-up area is 75 square kilometers. It is the center of politics, economy, culture, education, science and education, transportation and communication in the whole province. The total population of the city is 2 127300, and the urbanization rate is 59.59%. It has jurisdiction over four districts in the east, middle, west and north, and three counties in Datong, Huangzhong and Huangyuan. And Xining (National) Economic and Technological Development Zone, Chengnan New District and Hu Hai New District under construction.

Xining is a typical immigrant city, where many nationalities gather and many religions coexist. Xining, located at the junction of Loess Plateau and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, agricultural area and animal husbandry area, and Chinese culture and Tibetan culture, is the only central city in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with a population of over one million, with an immigrant population of 6.5438+0 million. There are 34 ethnic groups, including Han, Hui, Tibetan, Turkish, Mongolian and Salar, including 54 ethnic minorities. 360,000 people, accounting for 25.55% of the total population. With the development of western China and the acceleration of modern transportation construction, a transportation network with Xining as the center and radiating the whole province has been formed. National highways 3 15 and 109 run through the whole territory, and expressway and first-class highways extend in all directions, and railways extend in all directions, with a total track-laying mileage of 1300 km. The completion and opening of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway has made Xining the central hub of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Railway.

Xining is an inland open city determined by the State Council, and has established economic and trade cooperation and cultural exchange relations with many cities and regions at home and abroad. Festivals such as "Yu Shuxiang Festival", "Youth Fair" and "International Road Cycling Race Around Qinghai Lake" held in Xining every year have further expanded its popularity and influence in China. In 2006, the regional GDP reached 28 1.6 1 billion yuan, an increase of1.4% over the previous year; Investment in fixed assets of the whole society 14 104 billion yuan, up by 21.98%; Local general budget revenue1410.50 billion yuan; Increase by 20,1%; The per capita disposable income of urban residents was 9334.63 yuan, an increase of11.16%; The per capita net income of farmers was 2950.99 yuan, an increase of13.82%; Total retail sales of social consumer goods 1 19.5 1 100 million yuan, an increase of 14.5%.

Xining has a high priority in the province. Population accounts for 38.84% of the province, GDP accounts for 43.93%, fixed assets investment accounts for 33.6 1%, local general budget revenue accounts for 33.5%, and total retail sales of social consumer goods accounts for 66.35%. During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, we proposed to take Scientific Outlook on Development as the guide and build a harmonious society as the goal, and build Xining into an entrepreneurial city with excellent investment environment, a livable city with good ecology, a pioneer city of reform and opening up, a city with rich cultural connotations, and a harmonious and stable central city of regional modernization on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

1.2 Overview of the current situation of real estate

According to the statistical data, the investment, construction area and sales area of real estate development in Xining in 2006 should be adjusted in stages. In 2007, policy factors, cost increase, the start-up of new district development and the transformation of the old city will drive a new round of real estate development investment:

1. 2. 1 2006, the scale of investment in real estate development decreased year on year, the proportion of housing use and structure remained relatively stable, and real estate development was in a phased adjustment year, ready to go.

(1) Total investment decreased year-on-year:

In 2006, the total investment in real estate development in Xining was 2.48 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year, and the total area of commercial housing development was 3.75 million square meters, down 9.6% year-on-year, including 365,438+million square meters of houses, which was basically the same as the same period last year, accounting for 82.5% of the total development. Office space is 6,543,800+7,000 square meters, down 39.3% year-on-year, accounting for 4.5% of the total development; The commercial space is 500,000 square meters, down 15.3% year-on-year, accounting for 13% of the total development.

(2) Rapid growth of real estate market sales:

The sales of Xining real estate market grew rapidly, and the cumulative transaction volume of commercial housing (including pre-sale houses) reached 654.38+0.3459 million square meters, up 654.38+0.734% year-on-year.

(3) The sales price of commercial housing rose in waves:

From June 5438 to September 2006, the sales price of housing decreased by 0. 1 percentage point compared with the same period of last year, and the sales price of newly-built commercial housing increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the growth rate dropping by 0. 1 percentage point. Since March, the peak season of housing sales, the price of newly-built commercial housing has rebounded, showing a trend of rising first and then falling, especially in March-May, it rose by 6.0%, 6. 1% and 5.6% respectively, and fell back in June-September, rising by 3.2%, 6.5438+0.2% and 0.7% respectively. Among all kinds of houses, the average price of ordinary houses increased by 3.3% year-on-year, of which the average price of multi-storey houses 1.933 yuan/m2 increased by 4.5% year-on-year, and the average price of high-rise houses/m2 increased by 2. 1% year-on-year, with the increase rates of 1.6 and 0.6 percentage points respectively. The year-on-year increase in non-residential prices dropped. 1-September rose by 0.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped 1.7 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the price of office buildings rose by 0.2%, down by 2.5 percentage points, and the price of commercial and entertainment buildings rose by 0.2%, down by 0.6 percentage points. In the fourth quarter, prices rose again. The average residential sales price in Xining is 1940 yuan per square meter, up 2 13 yuan year-on-year, with an increase of 10.99%. In the whole year, the sales of commercial housing reached 20152 million yuan, and the average price of commercial housing was 2022 yuan per square meter, of which the residential price 1.94 yuan increased by 1.45 yuan and 2 1.3 yuan respectively.

1.2.2 In 2007, Xining's policies, income growth of major consumers and other factors brought an undercurrent.

(1) State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China issued order 138 to levy land value-added tax, which increased the cost of real estate developers;

The real estate industry in Xining is basically encouraged by local investment, so the land value-added tax for developers in previous years was either exempted or deferred. The landing of this year's 138 order has caused varying degrees of tension to the developers in Xining, and even some developers have proposed to withdraw their funds if they accept it. The capital chain of many developers is already very tight, and there may be a danger that some enterprises will close down because of a large number of expropriation. Some real estate developers have now started to push up housing prices with increased costs. During the investigation and visit, I learned that the international village developed by Yinchuan Company in Zhong Fang, Jianhui Jiayuan developed by Jianhui Real Estate Company, Wuyi Jiayuan developed by Xinsha Real Estate Company in Gansu, Xinyuan Community of Qinghai Telecom Real Estate Development Company and Wuhuan Commercial Building of Wuhuan Real Estate have all increased their prices in different degrees (the increase range is 50~ 100 yuan/square meter).

(2) Adjustment of supporting fees for urban construction:

Xining's new urban supporting fee was officially introduced, and the category of supporting fee was cancelled, and it was uniformly implemented according to 60 yuan/square meter, which was more than doubled compared with the original 25 yuan/square meter of primary land. The average price of newly opened (long-term) Taihe Xiang Garden in Harmony Real Estate is 2,700 yuan/square meter, and the average price of office buildings is 3,430 yuan/square meter. The second phase (multi-storey) of Shangri-La developed by Ye Wei in Jiangsu Province is also adjusting the opening price.

(3) Income growth of major consumers:

The main consumers of real estate in Xining are government agencies and institutions, a few highly efficient state-owned enterprises, retired employees of state-owned institutions and self-employed. Among them, government institutions and state-owned institutions are the main force of "high-end" housing purchase in Xining. Last year, institutions in Xining generally adjusted their wages, and the expectation of buying houses increased, which led many real estate developers to expect price increases. It is estimated that there will be a sharp price increase in the peak season of real estate sales in Xining (March-June).

(4) Changes in housing structure and consumption concept:

The commercialization reform of the housing system in Xining has not made enterprises and institutions completely withdraw from the field of individual housing investment, and the degree of commercialization of housing structure is not high. Last year, with the continuous strengthening of the national real estate policy, the concept of housing consumption of urban residents began to change, and individuals gradually became the main buyers of commercial housing. Xining real estate development enterprises will gradually become the main suppliers of social commercial housing. Real estate residential investment will replace enterprises and institutions as the main body of urban residential investment. With the change of housing consumption concept, the potential demand base of housing will continue to increase, which will play a catalytic role in the price increase and quantity demand of commercial housing in Xining this year.

1.2.3 With economic support and sound policies, the development prospect of the real estate industry is promising.

The state's increasing investment in the western region, especially in Qinghai's resource-based industries (oil, potash fertilizer, non-ferrous metals and hydropower) has promoted the sustained and rapid development of Xining's economy and laid a solid economic foundation for Xining's real estate development. In 2006, the per capita disposable income of urban residents in Xining is expected to increase by more than 65,438+05%. The increase of per capita disposable income has improved their residential consumption capacity and brought huge business opportunities to the real estate industry in Xining. In addition, the expanding urban framework of Hu Hai New District has created a broad development space for Xining real estate, and the transformation of the old city has promoted the rapid development of Xining real estate and ushered in a rare development opportunity for Xining real estate. It is expected that the construction and newly started area will continue to increase this year, the newly opened buildings will continue to increase, and the total development will continue to expand.

2. Business research

The old shop "Grand Cross Department Store" and the new "Xidan and Wangfujing Department Store" have become the most prosperous commercial center in Xining. As the main street in the core business district, West Street is the first choice for Xining people to shop, with many brand stores on both sides and high shopping flow. With the smooth progress of urban planning, the pace of overall business migration to the western part of the city has gradually accelerated. I believe that in the near future, Shengli Road will replace West Street as the first mainstream shopping street in Xining.

2. 1 commercial project distribution map

2.2 Summary of project survey data

Through the investigation of the existing commercial properties in Xining, the statistical data are summarized in the following table according to the map:

No. 1

Name of commercial project: building materials, commercial format and distribution, land rent distribution.

Huitong Fenghuang Xining Wu Si West Road 30th Floor Commercial and Residential Complex, in which 1-5F is a commercial building with a single floor area of 4000 m2, and floors 6-30 are residential buildings, and floors 4-5F are office buildings delivered in May-June this year.

Talking about 1-3F Household City

Business class: Mid-range

Operating status:

Not opened

Are other information of the project disseminated and sold separately?

The unit selling price is 1f: 10000 yuan /m2.

2f:7000 yuan/square meter

3f: 5000 yuan/square meter

Average price: 1-3f: 7600 yuan /m2.

Remarks: Half of 4F and the whole floor of 5F have been sold as office buildings.

For houses above 6F, the starting price is 2040 yuan /m2, and 35 yuan /m2 is increasing step by step, with the highest price of 2950 yuan /m2.

(Note: 1-3F Home City is talking)

second

Name of commercial project: building materials, commercial format and distribution, land rent distribution.

Commercial building on the 4th floor of the intersection of Huayuan North Street and Dongguan Street in Xining City, Yiwu Trade City, with a total construction area of about16000m21f: leather shoes for men and women 2F: household appliances, department stores and stationery.

3F: Cheap clothes 4F: curtains and bedding.

1f: 220 yuan/m2 * month.

2f: 300 yuan/m2 * month

3f: 150- 180 yuan/m2 * month.

4f: 80- 100 Yuan/m2 * month

Business class: middle and low grade

Operating status:

okay

Are other information of the project sold separately? Yes.

Sales unit price

Remarks: The property contract expires in 2008. According to the owner of Yidong Trade City, the government intends to be a hotel. The owner of the shopping mall denied that the lease could be renewed after 2008. 1f:7㎡ inner shop, pay store deposit of 5,000 yuan, transfer fee of 50,000 yuan, transfer fee of 1.500 yuan, pay store rent of 4,700 yuan every quarter, and pay 200 yuan tax after transfer.

third place

Name of commercial project: building materials, commercial format and distribution, land rent distribution.

The 4th floor commercial building at the intersection of Huayuan South Street and Dongguan Street in Xining City, Yidong Trade City, with a total construction area of about14000m21f;

2F:

3F:

4F:

Business class: middle and low grade

Operating status:

okay

Are other information of the project sold separately? Yes.

Sales unit price

Remarks: The term of the contract is 20 years, and the management fee of each floor is 1-4F for the first five years 160 yuan/month (tax exemption for the first three years), and the maximum annual increase after 5- 10 years shall not exceed 20 yuan/month, and it shall be determined after 10 years. The transfer fee is 6000-7000 yuan for a berth, and the average berth is 7-8m2.

fourth

Name of commercial project: building materials, commercial format and distribution, land rent distribution.

Wu Si Street of Huitong Shopping Plaza in Xining City is adjacent to the traffic lane, with a total construction area of 1.26 million square meters and a single construction area of-1f-4f 4000 square meters-1f-3f: Beijing Hualian Supermarket.

4F: Catering and entertainment

Business class: middle and high grade

Operating status:

okay

Are other information of the project sold separately? Yes.

Sales unit price-1F: on hold

1F: 12000/㎡

2F:6000/㎡

3F:4000/㎡

4F:3880/㎡

Remarks: The developer provides 65,438+00% pre-tax fixed return every year for 65,438+00 years, including one-time return in the first year and annual return thereafter.

Fifth place

Name of commercial project: building materials, commercial format and distribution, land rent distribution.

Wu Si Street, Xining City, the capital of Li Meng, is close to the main traffic road.-1f-3f is a commercial building with a single floor area of 3000m2-1f-1f: Suning Appliance.

2-3F: Clothing and Home Furnishing

Business class: middle and high grade

Operating status:

Is in trial operation.

Are other information of the project sold separately? Yes.

Sales unit price 1F Street storefront price: 25,000 yuan /m2.

Internal berth: 13000 yuan/m2

Remarks: 6000㎡ was taken away by Suning (10 lease term), and the contract stipulated that there should be no large-scale business premises similar to household appliances around its shopping mall. The developer sells it by lease, 3,000m2 is owned by himself, and the rest can be sold.

Sixth

Name of commercial project: building materials, commercial format and distribution, land rent distribution.

Wantong Shopping Plaza, Wu Si Street, Xining City, adjacent to the traffic lane, is a commercial building with a construction area of -2f-4f. This is a large shopping center with a building area of 50,000 square meters.

Commercial grade:

Operating status:

Are other information of the project sold separately? Yes.

Sales unit price 1f: 20000/㎡.

2F: 10000/㎡

3F:8000/㎡

4F:6000/㎡

Remarks: When the market opened in 2005, the developer provided 65,438+02 leaseback return, which was 9.8% before tax in the first three years, 65,438+00% in the last three to six years and 65,438+065,438+0% in the last seven to six years. Because developers don't know much about commercial operation, they lost 654.38 billion yuan by the end of 2006.

Seventh place

Name of commercial project: building materials, commercial format and distribution, land rent distribution.

The intersection of Wu Si Street and Microwave Lane in Xining International Children's City is a commercial building with a single floor area of 1800 m2. It is planned that all items related to children will be stored in 380 yuan /m2* month, with 200 yuan /m2* month as the interior, and 2F rent 160 yuan /m2* month.

Business class: Mid-range

Operating status:

Not operated

Whether other information of the project is sold separately is unknown.

Sales unit price

Remarks: Its format planning is unique in Xining.

No.8

Name of commercial project: building materials, commercial format and distribution, land rent distribution.

Jianguo (International) Hotel is located at the intersection of Jianguo Road and Qiyi Road. It is a property hotel with 2 floors underground and 20 floors above ground, with a total construction area of 30,244 square meters.

Business class: four-star hotel

Operating status:

Is in trial operation.

Are other information of the project sold separately? Yes.

The sales unit price is 3860 yuan/square meter.

Remarks: The only property hotel in Xining has a stable return for 9 years, with an annual return rate of11.1%; And every year 15 days free, 40 years unlimited appreciation guarantee. Investors can withdraw freely after one year and get the principal and income at the same time; Free check-in every year 15 days, Huitong group pays the rent on schedule, and returns the rent for one year after purchase; After nine years to recover all the costs and profits, Huitong Group can buy back at the original price. Due to government intervention, the project was sold 1/2 and stopped selling.

2.3 Survey data summary of shops along the street

Street name, commercial format area, rent description, transfer fee

South side of Xidajie

Women's wear area: 100㎡ Rent: 300,000/year Transfer fee: 80,000.

Men's suit area: 70m2 Rent: 248,000 yuan/year transfer fee: 70,000 yuan.

Denim monopoly area: 60m2 Rent: 200,000/year Transfer fee: 60,000.

North side of Xidajie

Women's wear area: 30m2 Rent: 1 10,000/month Transfer fee: 70,000.

Women's wear area: 30m2 Rent: 1.4 million/month Transfer fee: 70,000.

Small department store area:15m2 rent: 60,000-70,000/year excluding transfer fee.

Street name, commercial format area, rent description, transfer fee

Area of tobacco and alcohol department store on the south side of Shengli Road: 70 m2 Rent: 90 yuan /m2* month is non-transferable.

Cordyceps exclusive area: 75 m2 Rent: 80 yuan /m2* month non-transferable.

Area of tobacco and alcohol department store: 20m2 Rent: 58 yuan /m2* month is non-transferable.

Clothing rental on the north side of Shengli Road: 70-80 yuan /m2* month is non-transferable.

Tobacco and alcohol area: 265,438+100 ㎡ Rent:178,000/year, non-transferable.

Rental of small department stores: 70 yuan /m2* month is non-transferable.

2.4 Small professional clothing market

Zhu Min Street Market:

There is a large flow of people, mainly low-grade clothing retail. The average berth area near the middle of the market is120m2, and the rent is about 35,000/year. A well-located shop near the entrance and exit of the market covers an area of 6m2, and the rent is about 25,000/year.

Commercial alley market:

As an alley-style clothing street connecting Shengli Road and May 4th Road, there is a large flow of people, low level of clothing management and poor environment. Import and export with a relatively good location, with an area of10-15m2 and a rent of 45,000-50,000/year; Middle berth 135㎡, the rent is 200,000/year.

3. Real estate research

3. 1 housing market

3. 1. 1 nested structure

In 2006, the market area of commercial housing in Xining was mainly 90- 144 square meters, accounting for 65-70% of the total market supply and demand, and the price remained basically around 1900 yuan/square meter. The market demand for houses under 90 square meters, especially those under 60 square meters, is very small. Most houses under 60 square meters in the market are high-rise apartments, so the average price is relatively higher than other apartments. (Table 3- 1)

Coverage area (10,000 square meters) Complete sets (sets).

average price

(yuan)

agree with

Pre-sale ratio

(%) Reality

Ratio of sales to sales

(%) Pre-sale approval ratio

(%) as a percentage of actual sales.

(%)

≤60㎡ 3.62 2 1.99 1 557 4 439 3 2079

60-80㎡ 7.48 5 3.60 2 997 7 486 4 187 1

80-90㎡ 15.44 10 1 1.83 8 1754 13 1365 10 2085

90- 100㎡ 16.33 1 1 19.92 13 1700 13 2095 15 1898

100- 120㎡ 38.73 26 44.22 28 3548 26 40 18 30 1798

120- 144㎡ 4 1.37 27 44.07 28 3 130 23 3379 25 1937

144- 180㎡ 2 1.50 14 2 1.8 1 14 1394 1 1 1405 10 2054

> 180㎡ 7.25 5 8.2 1 5 355 3 330 2 25 15

Total151.72100155.6410013435100135.

Table 3-1:Statistical table of residential Xing Tao and average transaction price in 2006.

3. 1.2 price structure

Judging from the pre-sale approval of commercial housing in 2006, the market supply price is mainly 2000-3000 yuan/square meter, while the actual market transaction is mainly 1500-2500 yuan/square meter. In the price range of 2000-2500 yuan/square meter, the total supply and demand are relatively balanced, while the total supply in the price range of 1000-2000 yuan/square meter is obviously smaller than the total turnover, and the total supply in the price range above 2500 yuan/square meter is obviously larger than the total turnover, while the price range below 1000 yuan/square meter accounts for a small proportion of the total supply and demand. (Table 3-2)

& lt 1000 1000- 1500 1500-2000 2000-2500 2500-3000 ≥3000

Approved pre-sale area 2.32 33.13 30.23 42.37 42.62

The actual sales area is 4.28 39.54 47.94 41.86 20.231.19.

Approved number of pre-sale sets 208 3230 2724 3600 3673

The actual sales number is14 335 3622 4239 3577107.

Table 3-2: Statistics of Residential Sales Price and Number of Units in 2006

3. 1.3 regional structure

Judging from the transaction volume in 2006, the transaction volume in Chengxi District is relatively large, accounting for 33% of the city's transaction volume; The transaction volume of Chengdong District and Chengbei District is basically the same, accounting for 17% and 18% respectively. The transaction volume of Chengzhong District and Economic and Technological Development Zone is basically the same, accounting for12%; Chengnan New District has the least transaction volume, accounting for only 8%. The average transaction price of each district, Chengdong District 1.868 yuan/square meter will be close to the city's average price, and Chengnan New District 1.334 yuan/square meter is the lowest in the city; Chengxi District is 2 193 yuan/m2, which is the highest in the city and the second in the downtown area. Because these two districts are mainly high-rise buildings, the infrastructure and environmental facilities are better than other urban areas, so the demand is relatively strong and the house prices are relatively high. The average prices of Chengbei District and Economic and Technological Development Zone are 1.609 yuan/m2 and 1.489 yuan/m2, respectively, which are lower than the average price of the whole city. (Table 3-3)

Urban area ratio

Chengdong district 26.0617211018

Chengxi District 52. 10 33 4306 32

Chengnan New District 12.94 8 964 7

Chengbei district 27.55 18 2565 19

Chengzhong District18.10121612

Economic and Technological Development Zone18.95438+0.12165612

Table 3-3: Statistics of Residential Areas and Units in 2006

3. 1.4 types of investors

According to market research data and real estate interviews, investors in Xining can be divided into the following categories:

One is high-income civil servants, with higher education level and more rational elements, accounting for 5%; The second category is retirees from prefectures and counties, who have some income and deposits in their hands, and their investment is greatly influenced by advertisements. Specific gravity15%; The third category is some resource-based (non-ferrous metal minerals, native products, builders, etc. ) small business owners, who pay attention to investment income, and operators are very concerned about renting back to protect their interests, accounting for 20%; The fourth category is a certain type of commercial circulation owners, accounting for 50-60%. Their investment is mainly used for their own commercial buildings, and they basically choose commercial pavements (street shops) that are conducive to their own business formats for their own use. Such people account for the vast majority of commercial buildings, and foreign investors are also such investors.

3.2 Office market

Rent (sale) price of designated lots

Lease of the main section of the core business district of Wangfujing Shopping Mall: 30 yuan/month property fee: 1.7 yuan /m2* monthly sale: 3,000 yuan /m2.

Rent of main commercial street near May 4th Street: 45 yuan/month.

Lease around the project near Shengli Road: 27-28 yuan/month.

With the increase of demand and the settlement of foreign enterprises, the office rental shopping malls in Xining are increasingly active, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. Compared with the vigorous development of the residential market, the vacancy rate of office buildings in Xining has increased in the past, resulting in a weak rise in rental prices, and it is still in the period of digestion and adjustment. However, due to the increasing demand, as long as the development orientation is accurate, the homogeneous products are avoided from listing, and the software and hardware facilities and services are improved, the office market in Xining can still keep warming up.

4. Goods for sale

4. 1 residential property

Name of regional real estate: sales area (square meter) and average selling price (yuan/square meter)

Chengxi Shengli road comprehensive building

Wantong resettlement community

Xianglong business garden

Beautiful Garden 2774.02

2367.46

1256.56

2698.22 1 1 17

3809

1 194