Who will analyze Quanjude's stock?

Quanjude's (002 186) net profit in the third quarter increased by 56.52% year-on-year.

(Reporter Li Jing) The third quarterly report released by China Quanjude (Group) Co., Ltd. (002 186), which is known as "the first Chinese restaurant", shows that its net profit in the third quarter was 28.05 million yuan, up 56.52% year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the total operating income was 770 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65,438+03.74%; The net profit was 665.438 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.48%.

Tang Ying, the director of Quanjude, said in an interview yesterday that the international financial crisis may have an impact on tourism in the fourth quarter, so Quanjude's profit expectation for the whole year is not particularly high.

As for the annual profit, Quanjude expects that the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in 2008 will increase by no more than 65,438+00% compared with the same period of last year.

Tang Ying said that the reopening of Quanjude's old store in August played a great role in improving the company's performance and benefited a lot from the Olympic Games.

Quanjude Qianmen Old Store is one of the main profit sources of Quanjude Catering Group, and its turnover is close to 1/3 of the total income of the Group. After a year and a half of suspension, it officially reopened on the eve of the opening of the Olympic Games on August 7, and the passenger flow of Quanjude's former stores set a historical record. During the Olympic Games, Quanjude Roast Duck has become one of the must-eat dishes for tourists and athletes from all over the world.

Brilliant performance in the second half of the year

In the third quarter, the company's performance was greatly improved, and the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 28.05 million yuan, accounting for 42.26% of the total net profit in the first three quarters. 10 month, the company's performance reached a new high. Under the premise that the performance of the distribution center is not counted, the operating income has reached more than 50 million. Regardless of the previous store performance, the company's performance in the first 65,438+065,438+00 days of June increased by double digits year-on-year. At present, the global financial turmoil has not had a significant impact on business operations, but the changes in the customer structure of the three major supermarkets are worth tracking, that is, the number of group guests of travel agencies has dropped significantly, and the number of major business banquets has decreased.

● There are many growth points in performance, and direct stores have great growth potential.

The operation of Quanjude's newly opened direct store and the tapping of the business potential of the other three major catering brands are the main highlights of the company's development in the next few years.

The performance contribution of newly opened stores in 2008 needs to be gradually reflected around 20 10. Quanjude Beijing Hongkun Store, Changchun Store, Cuixi Road Store, Chongqing Store and Fengzeyuan Xueyuan Road Store, which opened around 2007, will gradually mature, which will ensure the steady growth of the company's performance in 2009. Due to the increase of uncertainties in 2009, the potential impact of the financial crisis on the company began to appear, and it is expected that the company's expansion strategy in 2009 may slow down moderately.

The gradual maturity of newly opened stores in 2006-2007 will ensure the moderate growth of the company's performance in 2009.

● The performance of the former store after the new opening far exceeded expectations.

The operation of Qianmen Store in the past three months far exceeded expectations. The average daily turnover is basically around 400,000, and the minimum daily turnover is not less than 300,000. The highest daily average turnover in June was 54.38+0.06 million, and the highest daily average turnover in June reached 600,000/day, just before June, 1 1.

● Profit forecast and investment suggestions

We expect the company to achieve operating income of about 65.438+0.54 billion yuan and earnings per share of 0.55 yuan in 2008. At present, the company's P/E ratio is about 35 times, which is higher than the average level of the catering/tourism sector. Considering Quanjude's strong brand value, many directly operated properties in prime locations and its good growth prospects, we give it a "hold" rating.

● Risk warning

Judging from the current market expansion of Quanjude brand, the northern region is obviously better than the southern region, and the inland cities are better than the coastal cities. Quanjude has opened a new store, which can improve the visibility of the store, guide the target customer base and cultivate a stable customer base. It generally takes 1-2 years to run in the internal management of the enterprise. At the same time, one-time investment and start-up expenses also make it difficult for newly opened stores to contribute too much profit during the opening time of 1-2 years.

Overall situation in mid-2008

┌────────────┬─────┬─────┬───┬──────┐

||| (ten thousand yuan )| (ten thousand yuan )| (%)| Income ratio (%) |

├────────────┼─────┼─────┼───┼──────┤

| catering (industry) | 34756.3 | 22146.6 | 63.72 | 74.05 |

| Commodity sales (industry) |11855.4 | 3042.2 | 25.66 | 25.26 |

| Total (Industry) | 46611.7 | 25188.8 | 54.04 | 99.6438+0 |

├────────────┼─────┼─────┼───┼──────┤

| Beijing (region) | 44159.9 | ||| 94.09 |

| Shanghai (region) | 846.7 | | 1.80 |

| Chongqing (region) | 586.3 | | 1.25 | above

| Changchun (region) | 934.3 | | 1.99 |