In sharp contrast to the situation that "COVID-19" has been well controlled in China, the "COVID-19" epidemic in Europe is spreading rapidly, which is a severe test for governments all over the world. By March 2020 19, Italy had 4,207 new cases and more than 35,000 confirmed cases, making it a veritable hardest hit area in Europe.
In addition to seeking help from China, some European countries have to emulate China's prevention and control experience, especially advising residents to isolate themselves at home to reduce the spread of the virus.
In Italy, the hardest hit area, on the one hand, people take measures to isolate their homes and minimize outdoor activities; But on the other hand, it is precisely because of the reduction of personnel flow that the impact on business activities begins to appear, and the automobile industry bears the brunt.
The logistics industry has died out.
Just a week ago, British economic and business consulting company LMC? Automotive predicts that car sales in Italy, the third largest economy in Europe, may drop by more than 65,438+05% in 2020.
Italian car sales may shrink sharply.
Reuters's report describes the current situation in Italy as follows: Italy has almost stopped its normal life, and its economic activities remain in a state of providing basic services, which the government hopes will stop the spread of the "COVID-19".
Also last week, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte (Giuseppe? Conte) has said that Italian shops have been ordered to close by themselves, especially restaurants, cafes and bars. But later, perhaps out of concern about economic problems, Kong Di added, "With proper protection measures, the factory can continue to operate."
Imposing "privilege" on the factory is actually to minimize the loss of the enterprise. In intensive industries such as automobile manufacturing, the suspension of assembly line often means that it will affect the whole body, including upstream and downstream industries.
Previously, due to the shortage of parts from China, the Fiat 500L model has been discontinued, and now the last thing Europeans want to see is a large-scale factory shutdown.
However, if we observe the Italian auto market, we will find that even when the epidemic situation was not very serious in February, its auto market sales have already declined: the sales of new cars in 1 month dropped by 5.9%, and in February it dropped by 8.8%. It seems that it is unknown how much it will drop in March.
The Italian Association of Foreign Automobile Dealers (UNRAE) has released a forecast data, which shows that 20 19 10000 new cars will be sold in Italy, and in 2020, influenced by COVID-19, the annual sales may be only 1500000. It's already mid-March. Judging from the current spread speed of the virus in Italy, it is estimated that it will take several months to control the epidemic, which means that the sales forecast for the first half of the year is almost ruined.
Italy is already like this, but what about other European countries?
French auto-related industries press the pause button.
Although the "COVID-19" epidemic in France is not serious at present, the number of infected people is also increasing rapidly.
1 09 In March, the country reported 1 404 new patients, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases will soon exceed1000. In this case, the French media can't help sighing that coronavirus pneumonia-19 (COVID-19's name in European media is generally different from China's 20 19-nCoV) has had a far-reaching impact on drivers, including the automobile industry. This is a state that China has experienced, and we are not surprised ...
Crude oil prices have been falling all the way.
According to the data of French Automobile Manufacturers Association (CCFA), there are currently 40 million registered motor vehicle drivers in France, and most of them are worried about group travel. Despite concerns, it is reported that at least 80% of people in France have no travel restrictions. According to the news, at present, 60% of adults prefer to drive by themselves.
According to a data provided by BlaBlaCar, a French carpooling software, the initial decrease in trips was mainly due to the decrease in carpooling trips to Italy, but now carpooling trips in western Europe are decreasing. Especially in France, only 15% of carpooling trips are in operation.
On the other hand, due to the decline in global crude oil trading prices, France has also ushered in a sharp drop in oil prices, and the French media said that it has returned to the level of 20 16. At the beginning of March, when the global crude oil transaction price dropped to USD 33 per barrel, the price of refined oil (including 6 1% tax) in the French market was adjusted, in which the price of 95# E 10 gasoline was 1.44 euro/liter and that of 0# diesel was 1.36 euro/liter.
Recent average oil price in France
Surprisingly, however, with the decline of oil prices, the trading volume of refined oil products did not increase, which decreased by less than 3% compared with the same period of 20 19. On the one hand, the recent outbreak of COVID-19 in France, and on the other hand, the traffic strike triggered by 20 19 "Yellow Vest". The French seem to be used to public transportation.
However, during the epidemic, France was most affected by the car dealer system. In addition to fewer and fewer customers coming to the store, the sales of new cars are also decreasing.
Eric Champano (Eric? Champarnaud) said, "In 20 19, the sales volume of French cars was 22 1 10,000, and we expect it to drop by 3.8% in 2020, which is about 2,654,380+0.3 million. However, if the epidemic is more severe, it is also possible to sell less than 2 million vehicles this year. "
But at the same time, Champano also said that if everyone does not go out or take public transportation, then the subsequent car sales may also rebound.
At present, in France, the motor vehicle driver's license test was postponed indefinitely on March 16, and the motorcycle driver's license test was also postponed. In order to curb the spread of the virus, French Prime Minister Edward Philippe (? Toure? Like Italian leaders, Philip also announced strict control measures-closing important public places, but shops, banks and pharmacies are still open.
In the field of automobile manufacturing, PSA Group has announced the closure of all French factories, and other factories in Europe will be closed until March 27 to decide whether to resume work as appropriate. Renault Group has started telecommuting mode, and the email sent by Renault to employees shows that employees are currently prohibited from traveling except in special circumstances or to ensure business continuity.
In addition, Renault's factories in valladolid and palencia have recently stopped production for a short time, mainly due to the shortage of spare parts. At present, Spain is the second worst-hit country in Europe except Italy. In view of the long period of epidemic spread, the prospect of Spanish automobile manufacturing industry is not optimistic at present.
German manufacturers temporarily shut down to avoid risks.
Affected by the global economic slowdown, the introduction of WLTP test rules, automobile consumption tax and the outbreak of "COVID-19", European automobile sales entered a difficult period. According to the European automobile sales data in February, the sales volume of new cars has dropped by 7.2% year-on-year to 654.38+0.067 million.
In fact, following the 7.4% decline in 1 month, the European automobile market suffered another waterloo in February. Affected by the closure of public places in many European countries, it is expected that the decline may be more serious in March. Compared with the data of previous years, the situation in the first quarter of 2020 is the worst moment since 20 13.
According to the information released by the European Manufacturers Association (ACEA), the sales volume in the major markets of the European Union declined for the second consecutive month. As far as the country is concerned, it is "green", just like the recent stock market-Germany fell 1 1%, Italy fell 8.8%, Britain fell 2.9%, France fell 2.7% and Spain fell 6%.
In Germany, including Volkswagen, Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz all closed their factories to avoid the risks brought by the virus.
On March 17, Herbert Diss, CEO of Volkswagen Group (Herbert? Diess) released a message saying: "In view of the serious deterioration of the current sales situation and the increasing uncertainty of the supply of spare parts in our factory, the production of the brand factories under the Group will be suspended."
In fact, the Volkswagen Group has suspended production in factories in Italy, Portugal, Slovakia and Spain since this week. At present, due to the serious epidemic in Europe, Volkswagen Group is also considering closing factories in other parts of Europe. Because the trade union of Volkswagen proposed earlier that workers could not keep a safe distance, it was finally suggested to stop production.
Audi brand new Q5 is produced in Mexico.
Volkswagen Group currently has 65,438+024 production bases around the world, involving Lamborghini, Audi, Seat, Skoda and other brands, 72 of which are in Europe and 28 in Germany.
For example, Audi said it would stop production at its factories in Gogstad and Kassoum. In addition, due to the problem of parts supply chain, Audi's factory in Mexico also stopped production on March 16. At present, this factory is producing a brand-new Q5.
SEAT's factory in Martorell will also be closed, and its latest brand-new Leon based on MQB platform will be affected in the subsequent new car delivery.
Tesla's German super factory is cutting the ground.
Because factories in various places have stopped production, the financial situation of Volkswagen Group has also issued an early warning. FrankWitter, the director in charge of finance, revealed at a recent press conference that the sales in China dropped by 74% in February and are slowly recovering. As sales in Europe may not be optimistic in March, profits in the first quarter may drop sharply.
In the field of new energy, Tesla's current German super factory project has also fallen into an embarrassing situation. Due to US President Donald Trump (Donald? Trump) has announced a 30-day travel restriction in Europe from March 20th, which basically upset Tesla boss Elon musk? Musk) itinerary.
According to Musk's plan, he originally planned to put the German factory into production within two years. Despite being blocked by German environmental protection organizations, this project costing 4 billion euros is still under construction. According to the current influence of COVID-19, the delivery of Tesla's German super factory will be delayed, which will also lead to the European version of Model? Y delivery delay.
In addition to temporarily closing the factory, BMW Munich Group also adjusted the business of some dealers. Then BMW CEO Oliver Chipsy (Oliver? Zipse) issued a statement saying that BMW is responsible for all decisions on the premise of ensuring the health of employees and the balance of profits.
Moreover, Zipsey also sincerely stated that BMW has given up the plan to surpass the sales volume of 20 19, and predicted that the sales volume will be lower than that of 20 19 in the same period.
BMW's decision to close the factory also affected Britain's MINI and Rolls-Royce. In particular, MINI's three factories will stop production until April 17, and it will be decided whether to resume work according to the situation.
In addition to the above-mentioned automakers, Mercedes-Benz also decided to stop production in Europe for two weeks. As Mercedes-Benz is an automobile enterprise in various fields, the suspension of production has an impact on both commercial vehicles and passenger cars.
In fact, the suspension of production by European manufacturers also indicates that the epidemic in this region has entered a peak period. With the global stock market crash, the introduction of WLTP in Europe, electrification transformation and many other factors, the life of European automakers is not so good this year.
In popular words, it is time for European auto companies to "tide over the difficulties". end
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.