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In August, RMB loans increased by 1.28 trillion yuan, and broad money increased by 8.2%

Ant Financial set up a small program business unit to invest 1 billion yuan to upgrade its service scene

Market comments

Market comments: the market hit a new record, and many white horse stocks that were popular in the early stage plummeted.

macro perspective: CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year in August.

Pork: In August and September, there have been many African swine fever epidemics in China.

Futures information

Metal energy: gold 267.91, up 1.45%; Copper 48311, up 1.56%; Rebar 4141, down 1.49%; Rubber 12225, up 1.53%; The PVC index was 6745, down 1.37%; Zhengchun 3266, down 1.85%; Shanghai aluminum 14575, down 1.17%; Shanghai Nickel 113531, up 2.28%; Iron ore 496.1, up 1.43%; Coke 2237.5, down 1.91%; Coking coal 1277.1, up 1.17%; Crude oil was 533.8, up 1.55%;

Agricultural products: soybean oil 5864, down 1.71%; Corn 1914, down 1.78%; Palm oil 4886, down 1.41%; Cotton 16611, up 1.15%; Zheng Mai 2584, down 1.19%; White sugar 4962, up 1.11%; Apple 11898, up 1.58%;

exchange rate: EUR/USD 1.1627, up 1.19%; USD/RMB 6.8327, down 1.61%; USD/HK$ 7.8481, down 1.11%.

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It is recommended that RMB loans increase by 1.28 trillion yuan in October and August, and broad money increase by 8.2%

At the end of August, the balance of broad money (M2) was 178.87 trillion yuan, up by 8.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.3 and 1.4 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively; The balance of narrow money (M1) was 53.83 trillion yuan, up 3.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.2 and 11.1 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period of last year, respectively. The balance of money in circulation (M1) was 6.98 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. The net cash investment in the month was 24.5 billion yuan.

at the end of August, the balance of local and foreign currency loans was RMB 137.59 trillion, up by 12.8% year-on-year. The balance of RMB loans at the end of the month was 131.88 trillion yuan, up by 13.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that at the end of last month and the same period of last year. RMB loans increased by 1.28 trillion yuan in the month, an increase of 183.4 billion yuan year-on-year. In terms of sectors, loans from the household sector increased by 711.2 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 259.8 billion yuan and medium-and long-term loans increased by 441.5 billion yuan; Loans from non-financial enterprises and government organizations increased by 612.7 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 174.8 billion yuan, medium-and long-term loans increased by 342.5 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 419.9 billion yuan; Loans from non-banking financial institutions decreased by 43.9 billion yuan. At the end of the month, the balance of foreign currency loans was US$ 836 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. Foreign currency loans decreased by $6.2 billion in the month.

from the end of August, the balance of local and foreign currency deposits was 181.47 trillion yuan, up 8% year-on-year. At the end of the month, the balance of RMB deposits was 175.24 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.2 and 1.7 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively. In that month, RMB deposits increased by 1.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 272.9 billion yuan. Among them, household deposits increased by 346.3 billion yuan, non-financial enterprises increased by 613.9 billion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 85 billion yuan, and non-banking financial institutions decreased by 221 billion yuan. At the end of the month, the balance of foreign currency deposits was US$ 766.5 billion, down 2.7% year-on-year. Foreign currency deposits decreased by $2 billion in the month.

Comments: According to the data released by the central bank this time, although the loan balance increased in August, it was still lower than expected. On the one hand, it may be related to the bank's weak willingness to provide credit for risk control, and on the other hand, it may be related to the decline in the growth rate of deposits, thus restricting the scale of new credit. This news has a negative impact on the market and may suppress the market trend in the short term.

(investment consultant Cai Jin registered investment consultant certificate number: S1261611191121)

2. Ant Financial Services set up a small program business unit to invest 1 billion yuan to upgrade its service scene

According to Sina Technology, Ant Financial Services announced today that it officially set up a small program business unit and opened the payment success page to fully connect with Ali Ecology. In addition, the business unit will invest 1 billion yuan in innovation funds in the next three years to help developers and businesses upgrade their service scenarios. The official team of Alipay also revealed that in the next six months, Alipay applets will be gradually opened to individual developers.

Comments: With Ali's involvement in the field of small programs, companies mainly involved in small program development and services will get good development opportunities, and their share prices are also expected to get performance opportunities in the short term.

(investment consultant Cai Jin registered investment consultant certificateNo.: S1261611191121)

Market comments

1. Market comments: the market has hit a new record, and many white horse stocks that were popular in the early stage plummeted.

On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,656.11 points, down 1.33%, with a turnover of 93.5 billion, the lowest since July 21, 2114, excluding the special case of fuse. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8111.16 points, down 1.71%, with a turnover of 124.3 billion. The Growth Enterprise Market closed at 1385.81 points, down 1.67%, with a turnover of 41 billion. Although the intraday brokerage, military industry, media and other sectors collectively rose, the three major stock indexes rebounded and turned red one after another, but the persistence of long-term momentum was weak, and the market fell back and turned green again before noon, and the market continued its weak pattern. In terms of sector index, aviation, diversified finance, paper making, media and entertainment were among the top gainers, while white horse stocks and technology stocks collectively fell, while Dahua, Hikvision, Hengrui Pharma and other white horse stocks plunged.

Recently, there has been a clear market crash in the areas where institutions such as blue-chip white horse and cyclical stocks hold groups, and high-level powerful stocks make up for the decline. In the short term, this trend is expected to continue. At present, there is no obvious bad news in the broader market, but the market confidence is insufficient. At the same time, the volume and energy are also greatly reduced. Today, the Shanghai stock exchange hit a new low. At present, although the recent rally of powerful stocks is one of the signals that the market has bottomed out, the market sentiment is weak, and the market is likely to fall below the bottom of the stock market crash of 2638 points. If the market has a downward trend again, it may be the real bottom of market sentiment. Short-term market shrinkage is overcast, and it is not recommended to rush to bargain-hunting, select stocks and wait and see.

(investment consultant Zeng Zilei registered investment consultant certificateNo.: S1261613191115)

2. Macro view: CPI increased by 2.3% in August.

Recently, the Bureau of Statistics announced that the CPI in August rose by 2.3% year-on-year, expected to be 2.2%, and the previous value was 2.1%. In August, PPI rose by 4.1% year-on-year, expected to be 4.1%, and the previous value was 4.6%.

investment comments: CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year in August, rising for two consecutive months, mainly due to the sharp year-on-year increase in food prices. The changeable weather in August affected the supply and transportation of vegetables, and the price of vegetables increased by 4.3% year-on-year. At the same time, in August, swine fever broke out in various places, the supply side was tight, and the price of pigs also increased significantly. It is expected that inflationary pressure will further increase in the fourth quarter, but it is generally controllable. With the marginal weakening of policies such as environmental protection and limited production, the prices of raw materials and industrial products may fall back, and the downward trend of PPI may continue.

(investment consultant Zeng Zilei registered investment consultant certificate number: S1261613191115)

3. Pork: In August and September, there have been many African swine fever epidemics in China.

in August, five consecutive African swine fever outbreaks occurred in China, which were in Shenyang, Liaoning, Zhengzhou, Henan, Lianyungang, Jiangsu, Yueqing, Wenzhou, Zhejiang and Wuhu, Anhui. On August 31th, the State Council issued a document: Strictly control pig transportation and kitchen waste. Just in September, the sixth African swine fever epidemic occurred again in Xuancheng, Anhui Province. African swine fever occurred continuously in many places far apart, and pork prices showed obvious regional differentiation.

investment comments: after may 2116, pig prices entered a downward cycle, and it was not until April this year that pork prices showed signs of stopping falling. Recently, African swine fever will gradually spread. With the increasing density of epidemic diseases, the psychology of farmers will be constantly impacted. The pig industry is expected to usher in a large-scale de-capacity, and the rising cycle of pig prices is expected to come ahead of schedule. Investors are advised to pay close attention to the development of the epidemic and pay attention to enterprises related to pork prices on dips.

(investment consultant Zeng Zilei registered investment consultant certificateNo.: S1261613191115)

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