Pork dropped 3.6% chain-on-chain and rose 25% year-on-year
Comparing the price of hogs in the same period (Dec. 09, 2022 - Dec. 15, 2022), it dropped from 22.54 yuan/kg to 20.32 yuan/kg, down by 2.22 yuan/kg, a drop of 9.8%, and it is clear that the main reason for the drop in the price of pork is the significant price of swine fall back.
The fall in pig prices, I think with the following factors:
1, the reserve meat continued to put.
While the central reserve meat has not moved recently, but the local reserve meat is still entering the market, and the price is significantly lower than the retail price of pork market.
2, pork consumption is low.
More and more people are infected to become "small foreigners", not infected people are hiding, we do not want to go to densely populated areas, although the liberalization of all over the world, but the consumption of pork is still in the doldrums.
3, big fat impact on the market.
The market is still close to 50% of the big fertilizer is not listed, and the vast majority of this part of the big fertilizer will enter the market before the Spring Festival from the Spring Festival there is still a month's time, the market supply pressure is very big.
4, farmers mentality collapse.
Pig prices continue to fall hard to rise, the breeding end of the mentality of the collapse, panic out.
5, part of the pig farm non-plague instability, the emergency discharge increased.
While pork prices have also fallen, but the decline in pork prices is significantly lower than the decline in hog prices, it is expected that the next pork prices will continue to fall, to the current 8, 9 yuan of hog prices, pork prices to maintain 15-18 yuan is considered to be a more reasonable price.
Beef fell 0.1%, up 1.4% year-on-year
Compared to the magnitude of the change in pork prices, the magnitude of the change in beef prices to be much smaller, beef prices can only be considered a slight decline in the adjustment of the magnitude of the change is not large, mainly because of the supply side of the beef is relatively stable, because our country's cattle breeding has been in a state of oversupply, every year we have to import from abroad! A large number of beef, according to statistics, in 2021 China's beef imports totaled 2,153,900 tons, while the total beef imports from January to October 2022 was 2.2 million tons, compared with the same period in 2021, an increase of 250,000 tons, and this increase of 250,000 tons is one of the reasons for the slight downward adjustment of beef prices.
In addition to this, beef consumption is relatively low is also one of the reasons for beef price cuts, by the impact of the downturn in food and beverage consumption, the residents out of the low incentive to consume, and beef is mainly to food and beverage consumption, the loss of food and beverage consumption support, the price of beef fell back.
Beef prices compared to the same period last year up, mainly because of the sharp rise in pork prices in September and October this year, led to the rise in beef prices, although the last two months pork prices with the increase in supply and fell, but the increase in beef supply is limited, the previous increase in prices did not come down.
Eggs fell 0.3 percent from a year earlier, and rose 18.1 percent from a year earlier
Egg prices fell from a year earlier, first, because previous egg prices were at a relatively high level, and the farming side was worried about subsequent transportation disruptions affecting egg shipments, and the willingness to ship was stronger, and market supply was at a high level.
The second is because of the previous sealing control around the time of the hoarding of eggs is still available, traders are not motivated to purchase at high prices, consumers are also more to consume the inventory-based.
Third, because the epidemic affects the end of the food and beverage consumption, deep-processing enterprises are also because of the infection of workers, the start rate fell, egg demand is low.
For the subsequent trend of egg prices, I think the possibility of a big drop is not likely, the probability will run sideways weak.
Because of the short-term lack of good egg consumption, and the supply side, the recent elimination of the number of chickens is relatively large, now the new laying chickens corresponds to the amount of replenishment in August, while the replenishment in August compared to the 7 yuan ring, the incremental increase in new laying chickens than the elimination of chickens out of the amount of production capacity of egg production in the market increased, the supply increase and demand decrease in the case of the probability of egg prices will continue to fall.
Sheep meat rose 0.3% from a year earlier, down 5.1% from a year earlier
Sheep prices were not good for the whole year of 2022, and farmers have been in the red, especially in the second half of the year, with the rise in feed prices, sheep farmers' losses have been worsening, resulting in the elimination of ewes and sheep fattening sheep, which accelerated the decline in sheep farming capacity.
In addition, with the decline in temperature, winter lamb consumption favorable start, lamb consumption compared with the previous significant improvement.
In these two aspects of the promotion, lamb prices rose slightly from the ring.
But the rise in lamb prices not only does not represent the sheep industry rebound, but is not conducive to the sheep industry rebound, because the current retail price of lamb is still about 40 yuan, after the rise will further affect the consumption of lamb enthusiasm, not conducive to the sheep industry to go to capacity.
At present, the winter consumption peak failed to reverse the state of sheep losses, that can only be reversed by relying on the de-capacitation, according to industry forecasts, the sheep industry to turn a loss into a profit may also need half a year, that is, 2023 in May, June to improve significantly, and the price of mutton will delay the arrival of this time.