According to experts' analysis, China's economy continues to recover slowly, and the recovery of consumption is still weak. Next, macro-policies need to push service consumption and manufacturing investment back to the right track as soon as possible.
The industrial growth rate was slightly lower than expected.
Since July, under the influence of a series of policies and measures to coordinate epidemic prevention and control with economic and social development, the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy have continued to exert their strength, overcoming the adverse effects of epidemic and floods.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in June 5438+04, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that in June. The chain rose by 0.98%. From June to July of 65438, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, which was 0.9 percentage points narrower than that in June of 65438.
Wu Chaoming, vice president of Caixin Research Institute, analyzed CBN, and the growth rate of added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was the same as that of last month, slightly lower than market expectations. Among them, due to the flood weather in the south, infrastructure production slowed down a lot, such as the added value of mining, electricity, gas and water production and supply industries decreased by 4.3 and 3.8 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month; However, in the first half of the year, the state's support policies such as substantially increasing medium and long-term loans for manufacturing, increasing foreign investment, and stabilizing foreign trade showed results. In July, the growth rate of added value of manufacturing industry and foreign enterprises increased by 0.9 and 3.4 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month, which formed a strong support for maintaining the stability of industrial production.
Fu, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the press conference of the State Council Office on June 48+04 that during the whole process of economic recovery, he still supported the recovery and growth of the supply side and promoted production recovery through a series of policies to resume work and production and help enterprises. At the same time, demand is also accelerating. In July, the decline in the total retail sales of consumer goods was narrowing, and the retail sales of goods have turned positive this month. From June to July, 65438, the investment decline was also significantly narrowed, and the driving effect on production was gradually enhanced.
The recovery of consumption is slightly weak.
In July, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3,220.3 billion yuan, down 1. 1% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 0.7 percentage points narrower than that in June. The chain rose by 0.85%. From June to July, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 20,445.9 billion yuan, down 9.9% year-on-year, down 1.5 percentage points from June.
According to consumption type, catering revenue was 328.2 billion yuan, down11.0%; The retail sales of commodities reached 2,892 billion yuan, and the growth rate turned from negative to positive for the first time this year, with an increase of 0.2%.
In terms of online consumption, the year-on-year growth rates of online retail sales and online retail sales of physical goods rose to 9.0% and 15.7% respectively from June to July. Under the background of normalization of epidemic prevention and control, online channels have become an important growth pole of consumption.
Previously, many analysts were optimistic that the year-on-year growth rate of the society in July was expected to return to positive. But the fact is that in July, the zero growth of domestic society has not turned positive, and the zero consumption of society except automobiles decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, which was 1.4 percentage points higher than that in June, and the motivation for residents' consumption to rebound was obviously insufficient. Among them, residents' worries still exist, and the catering income decreased by 1 1.0% year-on-year, which is still one of the biggest drag items in society.
Wang Han, chief macro analyst of Industrial Securities, believes that the lower-than-expected social zero and industrial data in July is not necessarily the turning point of the economy. July data may be affected by flood weather to some extent, but this effect is often suppressed first and then raised. The high-frequency data in August, such as the start of blast furnace and the rising price of building materials, mean that the economy is not bad.
Wu Chaoming said that looking forward to the future, residents' income will decrease, employment pressure will be high, and the global epidemic will not retreat. It is expected that the pattern of weak consumption will continue, and the pressure of zero social growth rate is greater throughout the year. Subsequent consumption recovery depends on the government's increasing support for low-income groups and automobiles, which account for a high proportion of consumption.
The leading role of infrastructure is accelerating.
In terms of investment, from June to July, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) was 329210.40 billion yuan, down10.6% year-on-year, and the decline rate was narrowed by10.5 percentage points compared with June. In July, the chain rose by 4.85%.
In terms of fields, infrastructure investment decreased by 1.0% and manufacturing investment decreased by 10.2%, respectively, down by 1.7 and 1.5 percentage points compared with June. Investment in real estate development increased by 3.4%, 65,438 0.5 percentage points faster than that in June.
Shen Jianguang, chief economist of JD.COM Mathematics Department, believes that real estate and infrastructure investment are undoubtedly the biggest support of current domestic demand. However, manufacturing investment continued to be sluggish, still in a negative range year-on-year. Most industries have meager profits and slow recovery of investment willingness. Accordingly, private investment is obviously weaker than state-owned holding investment.
Fu said that compared with the past, the biggest feature of this year's investment is that there is no strong stimulus measure of "flooding". Promoting industrial upgrading and development is an important aspect of investment policy, and investment in people's livelihood is also growing rapidly.
In terms of real estate investment, the investment in real estate development increased by 3.4% from June to June, which was 65,438 0.5 percentage points faster than that in June. Since the second quarter, the real estate market has obviously picked up. This trend continued in July, and the growth rate of sales area, sources of funds and land acquisition area continued to increase or maintain at a high level.
Wu Chaoming believes that the leading role of infrastructure will accelerate in the second half of the year. Affected by the flood in July, the growth rate of infrastructure investment slowed down in that month, but with sufficient project reserves and financial funds, infrastructure investment will rebound rapidly after the flood, and it is expected to achieve double-digit growth throughout the year.