What is worth noting is the economic growth in the second quarter, which was only 7.9 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of this year after the growth rate in the same period last year was not that high (3.2 percent), which is lower than the market's general expectations. Researchers at ANBOUND would like to point out that
The economy grew less than expected in the second quarter of this year, and that the two-year average GDP growth rate in the second quarter amounted to 5.5%, which is already very close to the 5.8% year-on-year growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2019 before the epidemic. This figure shows that the momentum of China's rapid economic recovery after the epidemic has begun to slow down, and the slowdown will be more pronounced in the second half of the year. I'm afraid the country can't take the challenge of stabilizing growth this year lightly.
In fact, earlier than the market to understand the economic data of the government decision-making departments, has been ahead of the market to disclose the wind. 7 July 7 meeting of the State Council executive meeting decided that, in response to the impact of rising commodity prices on the production and operation of enterprises, we must adhere to the basis of not to engage in the flood irrigation, to maintain the stability of the monetary policy, enhance the effectiveness of the use of monetary policy tools such as the timely reduction of interest rates, to further strengthen the financial support to the real economy, especially the small and medium-sized enterprises, and to strengthen the financial support to the real economy, in particular, the financial support to the real economy. July 9, the central bank announced the implementation of a full-scale reduction of the quota. This clear statement brings the market signal is: the second quarter economic situation may not be as expected, the decision-making departments therefore early monetary relaxation, to deal with the economic recovery momentum slowdown.
From the main economic indicators:
Industrial
In the first half of the country above-scale industrial added value increased by 15.9% year-on-year, a two-year average growth of 7.0%, accelerated by 0.2 percentage points compared with the first quarter; which in the second quarter increased by 8.9% year-on-year. June, the value of added value of the industry above the scale increased by 8.3% year-on-year, a two-year average growth of 6.5%. 6.5%.
Investment
Investment in fixed assets nationwide (excluding farm households) amounted to 255,900 billion yuan in January-June, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%; an increase of 9.1% from January-June 2019, and a two-year average growth of 4.4%. Among them, private fixed-asset investment was 1,479.57 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year; state-controlled investment was up 9.6% year-on-year.From January to June, the country's investment in real estate development amounted to 7217.9 billion yuan, up 15.0% year-on-year; it was up 17.2% compared with the January-June 2019 period, and the two-year average growth was 8.2%.
Consumption
In the first half of the year, total retail sales of social consumer goods amounted to 2,119.04 billion yuan, an increase of 23.0% year-on-year, with a two-year average growth rate of 4.4%, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared with that in the first quarter; among them, it increased by 13.9% year-on-year in the second quarter, with an average growth rate of 4.6% over the two-year period.In June, total retail sales of social consumer goods amounted to 3,758.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.1%, a two-year average growth of 4.9%; the chain growth of 0.70%. It can be seen that the consumption growth rate in the second quarter, although still in double digits, but taking into account the negative growth base of the same period last year, the consumption growth in May and June is slowing down significantly.
Import and export
The total import and export of goods in the first half of the year amounted to 180,651,000,000 yuan, an increase of 27.1 percent from a year earlier. Among them, exports were 9849.3 billion yuan, up 28.1% year-on-year; imports were 8215.7 billion yuan, up 25.9% year-on-year; and the trade surplus was 1,633.6 billion yuan. Trade structure continues to optimize. In the first half of the year, exports of electromechanical products accounted for 59.2% of total exports, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the same period last year. The proportion of import and export of general trade in total import and export was 61.9%, 1.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The proportion of import and export of private enterprises in the total import and export amounted to 47.8%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. As the international economy recovers, the growth rate of import and export in the second half of the year may slow down further.
There are two other economic data that are worth watching -- the unemployment rate and residents' income.
Employment
In the first half of the year, the nation's cities and towns created 6.98 million new jobs, or 63.5 percent of the annual target. in June, the national urban survey unemployment rate stood at 5.0 percent, unchanged from May, and 0.7 percentage point lower than the same period of the previous year. It is worth noting that the surveyed unemployment rate for people aged 16-24 was as high as 15.4 percent, which was related to the graduation of more than 9 million college students this year, while the surveyed unemployment rate for people aged 25-59 was 4.2 percent. At the end of the second quarter, the total number of rural laborers going out to work was 182.33 million.
Income of residents
In the first half of the year, the disposable income per capita of residents nationwide was RMB 17,642, a nominal increase of 12.6% year-on-year, which was mainly affected by the low base in the first half of last year, with a two-year average growth of 7.4%, accelerated by 0.4% percentage points compared with that in the first quarter; it is worth noting that, after deducting the price factor the year-on-year real growth was 12.0%, with a two-year average growth of 5.2%, slightly lower than the economic growth rate, basically synchronized. Strictly speaking, the growth rate of residents' income is lower than the economic growth rate, and if this phenomenon occurs consecutively, it means that the income target has not been accomplished.
Overall, China's economy achieved relatively impressive (and expected) growth in the first half of this year under the low-base effect of last year, but it's worth noting that the pace of economic growth began to slow in the second quarter, with year-on-year growth rates in investment, consumption, and import and export data all showing a slowdown and exceeding expectations. We still repeat our previous judgment that the domestic market still needs to be prepared for the slowdown in economic growth in the second half of the year, and that the country can't take the challenge of stabilizing growth this year lightly. _