According to the hog price data, the hog price is adjusted by the slaughtering enterprises. On April 8, the national average price of lean pigs fell to 12.54 yuan/kg, and the price of pigs fell by 0.02 yuan in a narrow range. The market showed a sideways weak format! In the domestic production and marketing market, the pig price is stable and weak!
Among them, the pig prices in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hebei and Sichuan-Chongqing regions have fallen, and the average price of pigs in slaughtering enterprises has generally dropped by 0.05~0.2 yuan/kg, showing a weak and volatile format. Among them, Heilongjiang in the low-priced area is stable at 1 1.5 yuan/kg, and Guangdong is sideways 13.6 yuan/kg!
The price of ternary live pigs at home and abroad still shows a slight downward trend. Pig prices began to fall slightly this week. The overall price of live pigs fluctuated in the range of 12 yuan/kg, and the price difference between north and south was around 1 yuan/kg.
Today, the highest pig price in Hainan Province is 16.43 yuan/kg, and the lowest price in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is 1 1.04 yuan/kg.
Both the north and south regions have a slight decline, the market has fallen together, and some regions have a slight increase.
Since April, the overall trend of pig price is not clear, and there are many views on the inflection point of pig cycle in the industry. Most people still admit that there will be a turning point at the end of this year.
For the pig price in the first half of this year, it is generally believed in the industry that the pig price will remain in a low state, which is very important based on the consideration of supply and demand.
On the supply side, the number of live pigs slaughtered in 2022 will increase by 4.9% compared with the previous year's forecast, reaching 705 million, and the estimated live weight of live pigs slaughtered will show a downward trend, gradually falling back to less than 130 kg.
The output of pork is expected to reach 55.08 million tons, an increase of 4.0% over the previous year.
Judging from the data, the situation of oversupply of live pigs still exists in the first half of this year, and the supply will gradually shift to the balance of supply and demand after the third quarter. At that time, it is more likely that pig prices will rise back to the capital line.
On the feed level, according to the data of China Feed Association, from June 5438 to February 2022, pig feed increased by 4% year-on-year.
This also confirms from the side that the number of pigs is still huge.
On the evening of April 6th, Mu Yuan, a pig listed company, announced the bulletin of pig sales in March 2022.
In March, 5.986 million pigs were slaughtered in Mu Yuan, the highest in Mu Yuan and the highest in China.
In April, it is estimated that the output of pig enterprises will be reduced, which will ease the market pressure.
In terms of requirements, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the catering industry was hit hard by various orders, and stopped activities such as reunion, drinking and dining, which undoubtedly made the pork consumption in the off-season worse.
In terms of purchasing and storage, although the price of pigs is too low, after entering the first-level early warning range, the state has adopted a variety of purchasing and storage methods, but the number is not large.
Generally speaking, the national storage and storage of meat has a certain boosting effect on the market, but it has limited impact on the pork market.
To sum up, there are many negative factors in pig prices in April, and it is more obvious that it is easy to fall and difficult to rise.
Market outlook analysis: regarding the trend of pig price in the later period, privately analyzing the market is not smooth, the cost is obviously restricted, and the pig price may continue to be weak! With the gradual lifting of the mask problem in China, the supply of live pigs in the market will still be released, and the price of pigs will basically fall further. Therefore, in the first half of 2022, domestic pig prices will continue to appear in a weak bottom format, and pig prices will also hit a new low in the year. According to the analysis of departments and institutions, the pig price will drop to 10.5~ 1 1 yuan/kg!