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This is a confirmed case in COVID-19 outside China, which was announced by WHO on April 4th. In less than two weeks, this epidemic, which first broke out in China, quickly spread to the whole world.
Italy, the storm center of the European epidemic, has been extended to the whole country by the previously announced "city closure order" implemented in 11 regions. The major car companies and suppliers in Italy have closed their factories urgently.
FCA Group (Fiat Chrysler), the largest Italian car company, announced that it would take measures such as temporarily closing its factory to cope with the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. The famous Italian super-running brand Lamborghini also announced a temporary suspension of production.
Lamborghini closes its factory in Italy (Source: autoindustriya)
When issuing the national ban, Italian Prime Minister Conte even quoted the famous words of British World War II Prime Minister Churchill, saying that it is the "darkest hour" in Italy. On the other hand, the United States also lost its previous "calmness" and declared a national "state of emergency" on Friday.
under the nest, there are no eggs left. The automobile industry, as an important pillar industry of the national economy, was hit hard in this epidemic. The butterfly effect caused by this has eroded from China automobile industry to the global automobile industry.
However, an interesting phenomenon is that with the gradual control of the domestic epidemic, auto companies and suppliers are welcoming to resume work and production. The China auto market, which suffered a fatal blow before, may become the main market of global auto revenue in 2121.
The current changeable international market proves once again that China may be the best area for investment hedging in the world.
Airing spare parts by suitcase
European and American car companies have been hit hard
The 91th Geneva International Auto Show, originally scheduled to open on March 3rd, was officially cancelled at the beginning of this month due to the crazy spread of the epidemic in Europe. This international auto show, founded in 1924, was last cancelled during World War II.
To this end, the automakers who originally planned to participate in the Geneva Motor Show joined hands to launch their new cars on March 3rd, moving from offline to online. However, the results of the live broadcast conference were not satisfactory. The press conferences of Mercedes-Benz and BMW even had "signal transmission problems" and were vomited by netizens.
2119 Geneva Motor Show (Source: carmudi)
The same is true of the epidemic in the United States. According to the latest news from Bloomberg, the organizers of new york Auto Show announced on Tuesday that the annual new york Auto Show will be postponed to August due to the epidemic.
As the oldest and largest auto show in North America, new york Auto Show was born in 1911, which attracts more than 1 million visitors every year. According to official data, new york Auto Show brings more than 331 million dollars in economic benefits to new york and New York every year.
"Sales are definitely declining. We wake up in a different world every day. "
John Luciano, chairman of Volkswagen American Dealers Committee, made no secret of the impact of the epidemic on enterprises.
According to Bloomberg News, Standard & Poor's, an international rating agency, pointed out that since the sales volume in China accounts for nearly 41%, audi ag is likely to be the automobile manufacturer most affected by the novel coronavirus epidemic.
On Friday, due to certain logistics problems caused by the epidemic, Volkswagen announced that its main factory of Taurel, located near Barcelona, Spain, will stop production next Monday. It is estimated that the shutdown may last for up to six weeks, involving 7,111 employees.
In fact, the global spread of the epidemic has affected the development of the global automobile industry, and many European and American automobile companies even issued an early warning to the market.
Daimler warned that the spread of Covid-19 around the world poses great risks to its own business. "It may not only affect the sales situation in major markets, but also the production, procurement market and supply chain."
Kang Linsong, CEO of Daimler, admits that although its Mercedes-Benz brand has resumed production in Beijing, it is not yet possible to specifically measure the impact of the epidemic on Daimler's business.
jaguar land rover, on the other hand, is on the verge of production suspension due to the tight supply of spare parts at present-"we have been airlifting spare parts from China to the UK by suitcase to ensure the correct parts are available."
Schwayder, CEO of Jaguar Land Rover, said that the company's factory in the UK was "safe" for the time being in the last two weeks, but it will be difficult to purchase parts from China in the next few weeks, and it is still necessary to be prepared to stop production.
According to Tata Group, the production of Jaguar Land Rover Bromwich factory has been suspended for four weeks since the end of February, and the Solihull factory nearby will stop production intermittently until the end of March.
Trump declared that the United States has entered a "national emergency" (Source: Washington Post)
In addition, there have been several confirmed cases in Michigan, where the three major American auto giants gather. After the confirmed cases appeared in FCA's factory, it was reported that the factory had not stopped working, which also made the subsequent production more uncertain.
Due to the outbreak of the epidemic, auto industry analysts began to reduce their sales forecasts for the US market in 2121. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam? Jonas said in a research report that the outbreak of "demand shocks" is expected to lead to a 9% decline in automobile sales in the United States this year.
It is reported that in the first week of March, the car sales in the United States have dropped by 11% year-on-year. Before the outbreak of the epidemic, he had predicted that sales in the United States would only drop by 1%-2% this year.
research institute IHS? Markit even estimated that the novel coronavirus epidemic may reduce global automobile production by more than 1.7 million vehicles, which exceeds the global production of Volkswagen Group in any month.
Start a "fancy self-help"
"There is basically no problem in production now."
Li Xuefeng, vice president of Great Wall Motor Xu Shui Factory, said that at present, 75% of the employees have arrived at their posts, which used to be double-shift production, and now it is a single-shift production mode. Due to the epidemic, it is expected that the production capacity will be restored to 111% in mid-March.
It is understood that since February 8th, the major vehicle production bases of Great Wall Motor have resumed production, and the production capacity is gradually increasing.
Geely Chunxiao Manufacturing Base's resumption of work and production (Source: CCTV)
Recently, in the program "Special Report on War Epidemic Situation and Investigation Bank for Resumption of Work and Production" broadcast by CCTV, it was reported that Geely Automobile was quickly resuming work and production with the help of Ningbo government departments.
At present, Geely's 156 suppliers in Ningbo have resumed work in an all-round way, and the production capacity has recovered by more than 85%. The new cars produced after the holiday have begun to be delivered to customers.
Except Great Wall and Geely, according to the data of China Automobile Association, as of March 11, the return-to-work rate of 23 enterprise groups closely tracked by the Association (accounting for more than 96% of annual sales) reached 91.1%, the return-to-work rate of employees was 77%, and the recovery rate was over 41%. Among them, 18 enterprises including Changan, Chery, Jianghuai, Brilliance, Sinotruk, Yutong, Jinlong and Shaanxi Automobile have all resumed work.
What's more exciting is that recently, some car companies in Hubei, which are at the center of the epidemic vortex, have also heard good news about returning to work.
On Tuesday, a red-headed document dated March 9 showed that the COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention and Control Command of Wuhan Economic and Technological Development Zone (Hannan District) had approved the applications of Dongfeng Honda and Dongfeng passenger cars and their suppliers to resume work.
As one of the four major automobile industrial bases in China, relevant statistics show that in 2119, Hubei Province produced 2,247,511 automobiles, accounting for nearly 11% of the total automobile production in China.
By the end of 2118, there were 1,482 enterprises above designated size in Hubei automobile manufacturing industry, such as global parts giants Webasto and Bosch, all with factories in Wuhan.
While this epidemic has brought an impact on Hubei automobile industry, the supply of local spare parts enterprises has also been cut off, which has greatly affected some automobile enterprises in other provinces and cities and even in the world. Therefore, the early resumption of production of related industrial chains has become a top priority.
To this end, at the press conference of the State Council Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism held on Friday, Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, specially emphasized that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology had communicated with Hubei local authorities and supported the auto industry parts as the priority industries to resume work.
In order to ensure profits and sales volume and not lose face, car companies have even started "fancy self-help".
those who provide epidemic prevention materials for employees and suppliers to help them return to work, for example, Shenlong Automobile has formulated a detailed plan for returning to work, involving transportation, catering, office space, protective materials, epidemic prevention and quarantine, emergency support and other aspects, and distributed epidemic prevention materials to each dealer.
For example, SAIC Roewe launched six measures of "double decompression, double support and double care" around sales operation and after-sales service to empower dealers to decompress.
SAIC-GM-Wuling brand masks (Source: Guanwei)
Those with cross-border masks can not only help fight the epidemic, but also perfectly realize the resumption of work and production, which can be described as a win-win situation. For example, SAIC-GM-Wuling, BYD, GAC and many other car companies.
BYD even said that the number of masks it produces is increasing at a rate of 311,111 to 511,111 pieces per day. At present, it has reached the production capacity of 5 million masks per day, which is equivalent to 1.4 of the previous national production capacity.
there are also companies that directly choose to lay off employees and reduce their salaries. For example, SAIC was the first to announce a salary cut, in which SAIC Chase cancelled some benefits and lowered the performance salary from E post by 17% to 57%; Weimar Automobile canceled the year-end bonus for all employees, and the 13 salary was postponed until June.
in fact, whether it's an industry giant like SAIC or a new car-making force like Weimar, it's just a microcosm of the current industry's difficulties.
on March 2nd, the latest data released by China Automobile Association showed that in February this year, the domestic automobile production and sales were 285,111 and 311,111 respectively, which were 83.9% lower than the previous month and 79.8% lower than the same period last year.
Although the wage reduction measures of auto companies are not entirely affected by the epidemic, to some extent, the epidemic has forced auto companies to seize the opportunity of transformation.
It is understood that at present, luxury car brands such as BMW, Audi and Tesla, joint venture brands such as Volkswagen, Ford, Buick, Toyota and Hyundai, independent brands such as Geely, Chang 'an and Great Wall, and more than 21 automobile brands such as Weilai and Tucki have launched the "cloud selling car" service with zero contact with customers to find a "new road".
New Weather in p>2121
Do global car companies rely on the China market for revenue?
"If it weren't for this epidemic, many people wouldn't realize how important China is in the global industrial chain."
Take the automobile industry as an example. According to the research of Deloitte Consulting, at present, almost all the world-famous auto parts giants have set up in China, and regard it as one of the production centers radiating the Asian and even global markets.
Among them, only in Hubei, there are a large number of international mainstream parts enterprises such as Bosch, Delphi, Valeo, Virginia, Visteon, Anbofu, etc. Even if they transfer their production capacity to factories in other countries and regions, it is far from offsetting the impact of the delayed resumption of work in China.
Distribution of some key auto parts suppliers in Hubei Province (Source: Geshi Automobile)
As early as October 29th, Bosch Group warned that Bosch's supply chain relied heavily on China. "We need to wait for the development of the situation. If this situation continues, Bosch's global supply chain will be interrupted. "
amber said recently that the epidemic has caused the company's operating income to be reduced by 511 million to 211 million dollars, and its operating profit to be reduced by 61 million to 81 million dollars, far higher than expected.
In recent years, China auto parts enterprises have been developing and growing in the international market. According to the data from the International Trade Center, the proportion of parts produced in China has exceeded 31% of Japanese car companies, and South Korea is also close to this data; The dependence of European and American car companies on China parts has tripled in the past 21 years, rising to 21%.
although it still lags behind the United States, Japan and Germany in the field of core components, it still occupies a large part of the market.
data show that in 2118, the total output value of China's auto parts industry reached 3,845.5 billion yuan, and the export value of auto parts was 55.12 billion US dollars, accounting for more than 75% of all auto products. Some research institutions estimate that the market size of China's auto parts will reach 4.3 trillion yuan in 2119, and the export value is expected to exceed 61 billion US dollars.
This is why even though China's spare parts enterprises only occupy the fourth place in the world rankings, the suspension of production due to the epidemic still restricts most international automobile enterprises. It can also be seen that the China market plays an important role in the mainstream car companies.
According to industry analysts, with the spread of COVID-19 in Europe, America, Japan and South Korea, the production and sales of multinational car companies in these areas will face great challenges.
in contrast, China's auto market is gradually returning to normal, and related policies to stimulate auto consumption have been introduced at the national level and in various provinces and cities. In the second half of the year and even the whole year of 2121, the auto industry may present a new phenomenon: global auto revenue will mainly rely on the China market, and China will also become an important cornerstone for the future development of the global auto industry.
as Li xinggan, director of the foreign trade department of the Ministry of commerce, said, after the outbreak, some foreign trade enterprises found it difficult to fulfill their orders, so some orders were transferred, which is a normal phenomenon in the field of trade and investment. The normal market mechanism is gradually recovering, and enterprises from all countries are welcome to cooperate with enterprises in China in industrial chain and supply chain.
"China has always been a hot spot for global enterprises to invest. The current changes in the international market once again prove that China may be the best area for investment hedging in the world. "
written at the end
As an important pillar industry of the national economy, the automobile industry has not reached a low point in the world at present, but according to the development trend of the epidemic, countries such as Europe, America, Japan and South Korea are likely to have a large-scale outbreak in the next few weeks, which will challenge the global automobile industry.
However, this may also be a signal. As Xu Heyi, the chairman of BAIC Group, said, the turning point of the automobile industry has arrived. At present, it is like the beginning of the era of great adjustment in the steel industry. Today in the steel industry is tomorrow in the automobile industry.
This article comes from the author of Chejia, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.