Readers interested in finance should remember that 13 or four years ago in the home appliance market, retail chain giants commission also reached 22 percent (not including additional promotions, scheduling, etc.), domestic manufacturers set off a wave of resistance. Later, economists intervened in the discussion, the Ministry of Commerce led the release of the "retailer-supplier transaction management approach", "to rectify the irregular promotional behavior of commercial retail enterprises" and other norms. That time it seems that the supplier won. Since then, the offline commercial chain industry, high-growth inflection, e-commerce into the explosive trend. Now it's time for the platform service commission is greater than 20%, such as the United States group commission of 22%, drop car commission of 25%, etc., the future of the market will be how the game changes?
Take Meituan Dianping's catering takeaway service business for example, why did it raise its commission at this time? Is it reasonable? Will there be market "resistance"? In the final analysis, what kind of business model is this and where is the value?
1, the company went public on September 20, 2018, as of now the market value of $ 30 billion, and the last round of investment in October 2017 after the valuation of $ 30 billion, back to square one. Before the "strategic planning, performance commitment" we do not know, during the period of "this trial and error, that purchase" we do not comment, anyway, "equity holders" on its In any case, the "equity holders" are not satisfied with the "neither profitability nor market capitalization spread", and the "capital holders of convertible redeemable preferred shares" are probably not concerned.
2, the company's catering takeaway service has accounted for more than 60% of the domestic market share, becoming the world's largest catering takeaway service provider. "Monopoly" Well, you can sell meals to the price (increase commissions), to the rider price (reduce subcontract delivery commission), of course, consumers are also gradually accustomed to the delivery cost standard (less subsidies). These are the biggest source of bottom line.
3, compared to foreign countries, China has the lowest cost. Grubhub, the largest takeout company in the United States, for example, its income is mainly composed of three parts: more than 20% delivery fee (traditional takeout, the United States has the custom of giving takeout boys about 15% tip), 12.5% of the base commission, 0-17.5% of the 4 grades of the promotion fee.
1, for profit seems indisputable, remember its former COO Gan Jiawei said, "only earn money is called business".
(1) merchant commission rate: the annual transaction value of food and beverage takeaway services in 2017 was RMB 171 billion (excluding offline collection and payment aggregation payment for the purpose of rushing the transaction value by 25%), with an income of RMB 21.032 billion (the main commission), and an average commission rate of about 16.4% (about the same as that year's 18% including delivery policy).
(2) rider fee: according to the statement provided by the company, "in 2017, the cumulative total of 2.319 billion deliveries of food and beverage takeaway, the payment of rider costs increased to 18.324 billion yuan". Then the calculation gets $7.89/unit which is lower than about $8.6/unit in 2016. If calculated according to the 48 yuan passenger unit price (including delivery), the rider fee of 7.89 yuan per single accounted for 16.44% of it. But according to the rider network feel, each single get delivery fee is not so much, should be about 10%.
(3) passenger unit price: according to the company provided the transaction volume divided by the single, calculate the 2017 passenger unit price is 55.3 yuan / single (minus delivery fee of about 47.4 yuan / single). Significantly higher than the company said in the middle of the year just broke through 40 yuan / single, white-collar market of about 46 yuan / single, indicating that this statement does not include distribution, and reveals that most of the suppliers of high customer unit price began or originally chose to distribute themselves. According to public information, the current Internet takeout market price distribution: campus market about 25 yuan / single, white-collar market about 40 yuan / single, the family market about 110 yuan / single.
(4) the mystery of profit: the company has said that the other businesses outside the takeaway business, has been in July 2016 to achieve an overall profit, then in 2017 the company's adjusted net profit loss of 2.9 billion yuan, we counted as a minimum loss in the catering takeaway business. catering takeaway revenue of 21.032 billion yuan in 2017, minus the cost of goods sold of 19.3 billion yuan (cycling fees mainly). Isn't there still a gross profit of $1.732 billion? So where did at least $4.632 billion go? The company's overall "sales and marketing expenses" are about 10.9 billion yuan, "general administrative expenses" are about 2.2 billion yuan, and "research and development expenses" are about 3.6 billion yuan, totaling 16.7 billion yuan. Even if only 30% of the catering and takeaway business is covered.
(5) commission increased by 4%, whether the "financial theory of parity": assuming that other data remain unchanged, the new revenue of 171 billion yuan * 0.75 * 4% = 5.13 billion yuan, minus taxes (and then a few dollars of bonuses or pensions), but not just higher than the 4.532 billion yuan? So precise that it feels like it came out of an operating policy directive from the Treasury. That's the biggest motivation, and it definitely didn't come from market research!
So the MMT takeout staff, quite literally, said: the increase in commission is mainly due to the company's increased operating costs and labor expenses. As for why some merchants quit the takeout platform? They explained: on the one hand, because of store transfer and contract expiration, and on the other hand, some merchants themselves are not competitive, the exit is the result of the market superiority and elimination. The company's newest product is a new product that will be available in the marketplace in the near future.
2. What do other stakeholders think?
(1) Merchant affordability. Assuming that the platform and operating smooth, in its new revenue up 22% commission, 5% promotions (more by word of mouth, right), 18% personnel expenses, other new packaging, depreciation, and taxes and other expenditures totaling 8%, then as long as your gross margin is higher than 53% (on average, it can be up to 65%), this takeaway single or can be picked up. The premise is that you do not let the chef, the staff is too nervous, do not mess up the dine-in guests. Why foreign merchants can afford high commission? Maybe it has something to do with the cost of ingredients and pricing.
But merchants with the platform's motivation is less, to make money. In the long run to stay on the platform merchants will be which? Perhaps, one is a new store, anyway, idle also idle; two is the category and gross margin "stinky", continue to save traffic from online to offline; three is to do "dark cuisine", not afraid of the cost of the high and low, in the platform wide net there will always be The "body of the great" order.
(2) As for users, riders, "warm water boils the frog", when the pain will not come again "excessive" then there will always be "vote with your feet" time. According to the company's data, the beginning of 2017 active riders more than 300,000, the end of the year more than 500,000, an average of 400,000; said that the payment of rider fees 18.3 billion yuan, to the active hands according to the calculation of 80%, then the active rider per capita annual access to 36,600 yuan, an average of 3,000 yuan per month, buy a "car" after the wind and rain, basically to the Affordable bottom line. This and the rider recruiting ads said "a month to get less than 4,000 yuan, do not say in the Mission work", but also a bit of a gap!
3, the market game judgment
Dining takeaway "platform, suppliers, users, riders" four sides, temporarily will not be like more than a decade ago, the home appliance industry, zero supply multi-party game so intense, after all, relative to the platform of the other parties now are "weak and scattered", not a market. ", not a market force. The store is still waiting to see what happens, there is no pressure on the money, just a little less money per single, but also worried that I'm not on the platform, so that the old king next door to the traffic grabbed how to do? For the rider, or into the city after the appropriate "first job". Users, what "taste" have. But the so-called "2020 to account for 20% share of the catering industry, to reach more than 1 trillion" analysis of the catering takeaway, wait and see, see the "ceiling" in the end where the pressure.
The end of the month in the "have to find the real reason for the failure of the ofo? This is not at all in the "company"" article said, like ofo, even drop travel and other modes, since the mission is to solve the "urban transportation" problem, belongs to the category of public **** service, improve the efficiency of the public **** service solutions is the enterprise's Profit point, rather than all the public **** service contracted for commercialization. Capital subsidized public **** service is just, capital to draw commission, increase prices, premium return how to do? It is also possible to increase the overall social welfare?
Of course, Meituan Dianping's catering takeout service does not constitute a public **** service characteristics. But always feel that the catering takeaway market has 400 billion yuan, more than eighty billion costs for no reason, not eat in the mouth, but consumed on the road and the box, always feel that something is wrong? Think about you is not a "line to get a food a street market property lease management, plus express subcontracting", the social cost to get big, not to mention that their own there is so much "sales and marketing expenses" "General administrative expenses ", "research and development expenditures" and other huge holes waiting for "society to fill". For the social value, can we "raise the commission and turn the merchants into winners and losers" as Meituan said? I hope it won't go against the grain and "drive out the good money". If the capital market also requires it to be profitable, and in the future to make additional money premium? Jun end of the expectation of catering takeaway service is just a high-frequency traffic entrance, to play the so-called "wool on the pig" it, after all, the people to food for heaven.
Junmou believes that the rapid growth of domestic catering takeaway is mainly due to the "life constraints" of the rider's "low-cost and high-efficiency labor" in creating and contributing to social welfare, rather than just the so-called technology and platform. Why? First, the existence of overtime work riders, spoiled users "midnight call night"; Second, the tolerance of riders, can meet a variety of strange and bizarre needs, including the delivery process on behalf of the purchase of sanitary napkins and so on; Third, the riders of the wind and rain and no increase in the price of the energy without tips. These are all unimaginable in foreign countries.
Alas, why not have the patience to be the Michelin of China's restaurant world? Even "Douban" would be nice! These can not play out big data, to give everyone "portrait" and then synergistic diversification to make money?
The company's current market value "half split" to the catering takeaway service of 15 billion dollars, compared to the U.S. counterparts GrubHub 7 billion dollars, although not profitable, but it seems to be compared to the price is not expensive. If you compare the "courier company", the comprehensive performance trend and the Roundtree about the same, plus a little more data precipitation value, it is also the present value of 60% discount. If you compare the "online market chartered public" Ali, according to the coefficient of 0.65x multiplied by the GMV (except for purely aggregated payment), it is $12 billion, there is still 20% discount space.
First of all, the supply-side merchants that can squeeze the milk is not much, perhaps promotional services can be apportioned again; but smart merchants are still willing to stay on the platform, is through the sacrifice of some of the profits in exchange for the online traffic into their own hands, engage in a small program, send a card, add a WeChat, get a discount, but also can be "to play around with the new retail", after all, services have strong geographic attributes. After all, the service has strong geographical attributes. Just like a few years ago, a variety of car wash and maintenance services O2O, in the end, none of the platform success, stores live according to.
Secondly, what can be cultivated from the user is the "delivery tip" and then increase, as long as "lazy busy people can afford". As mentioned in the prospectus, the company receives most of its revenue from takeaway services, if it can not continue to meet the changing needs of consumers and preferences for innovative services, as well as to retain the consumer base of catering takeaway, may be subject to material adverse effects. Domestic riders are already paying "all", and any additional "delivery tips" they receive in the future must still be compensated to them.
Once again, I would like to offer a reminder of some of the provisions of the "E-commerce Law" that has just been released: e-commerce platform operators should follow the principle of openness, fairness, and impartiality. And shall not utilize service agreements, transaction rules, and technology and other means to unreasonably restrict or attach unreasonable conditions to the platform operator's transactions within the platform, transaction prices, and other operators' transactions, or charge unreasonable fees to the platform operator!