An example is an example of an enterprise choosing a track, and an example of an individual choosing a track.
The example of enterprise refers to the choice of Kodak company in that year. From 65438 to 0994, Kodak's business was strongly impacted by Fuji Company in China market, and it was losing ground. According to the conventional play, there is almost no hope of a comeback. As a result, Kodak Company made a super big move in China: it invested 654.38 billion US dollars to acquire China Film Corporation in the whole industry.
This big move is really fierce. Seven companies in China's film industry have joint ventures with Kodak. Kodak's share price soared, and its share in China market also surpassed Fuji's, with a share as high as 67%.
It seems that Kodak is very successful, but at this time, the global camera industry is undergoing tremendous changes, and digital cameras are rising. In 2002, the sales of digital cameras surpassed those of traditional cameras for the first time. Kodak was the first to invent the digital camera as early as 1975, but it still adhered to the track of traditional film for more than 30 years because it paid attention to the current cash flow.
Kodak's big move in China was victorious, but it lost the whole battle.
Kodak was stronger, harder and chose the wrong track, all of which aggravated its rout.
Personal examples mean that if you want to choose swing, you'd better imitate tennis star Roger Federer instead of badminton champion Dānlín.
Why? Also in the top ten, the income of tennis players is10-20 times higher than that of any other racket player.
You see, Dānlín is absolutely talented. He trained very hard and got good grades. He can be regarded as a top badminton player. But he can't overcome the disadvantage of badminton as an "industry" compared with tennis. Even if you are number one in the world, your income is far less than that of Federer.
As an individual, even though the professional level is very high, I still lost at the starting point because I didn't choose the right track.
A study by McKinsey & Company shows that more than 70% of companies are rising with the rising trend of the industry. Industry and region are the two most important factors that determine a company's profit. The profit curve of a company moves up and down in industries and regions, and the fluctuation space does not exceed 25%.
Choosing an industry is like choosing to take the elevator or climb the stairs. As long as you sit on it, the high probability is to go up and down with the elevator.
It is not only the company's choice of track, but also the individual's choice.
As individuals, how should we choose the track that suits us?
1. Find more valuable industries in the future.
We should have some forward-looking vision, not just limited to our own cognitive scope, which requires continuous learning and thinking.
Just like kevin kelly's book Inevitability, many people who have read it say that they have seen the future, because the author of this book summarizes his observation and analysis of science and technology for decades, and wonderfully comments on the inevitable trend of current scientific and technological development, which provides a very forward-looking vision and guidance for the development of science and technology industry.
2. Find a company that can make money in the future.
What is a good company? That is the ability to continue to grow.
Who do you think is more valuable, the new york Times or Twitter, the American Weibo?
These two companies are very powerful, both have thousands of employees, and both are industry-leading information channels. Also in 20 12, The New York Times made a profit of $65438+33 million, while Twitter was at a loss.
Although The New York Times makes more money, the loss-making Twitter is more valuable. In 20 13, Twitter went public with a market value of $4 billion, more than twice that of The New York Times. Why is this?
The value of an enterprise today is the sum of its future profits, that is, converting future cash flows into today's value. Therefore, valuable companies are companies that people think will have a high rate of return in the future.
Whether to make money now is not the most important issue. If you can choose to delay satisfaction, you may gain a lot. Just like Amazon, it lost money 20 years ago, and once it started to make money, it earned a lot.
Just because some enterprises make money now doesn't mean they will make money in the future. For example, although The New York Times is making money now, the whole newspaper industry is in a downward trend and may not make money in a few years. Although Twitter lost money at the time, it may make a lot of money in the future.
3. Find an industry that has never changed.
If an industry has existed since ancient times, and judging by common sense that there is a high probability of future existence, then this industry can also be chosen. For example, the catering industry, because human beings have to eat at any time.
4. Find an industry that can give full play to its natural advantages.
If an industry can show its talents, even if it can't achieve fame and fortune in the secular sense, but it is full of sense of accomplishment and satisfaction, it is also dispensable.