With the roller coaster price reduction of wheat again, the rise of corn deep processing enterprises began to decrease, and the arrival situation of enterprises also began to increase. However, from the decline of wheat yesterday, there were signs of stabilization. After all, the current grain holders' mentality was relatively stable. Even in the face of the crazy overweight of grain storage, after the initial panic, traders slowly settled down to observe, and as a result, there were fewer consulting shipments and more bargain-hunting. After all, there is only half a month left before May Day, and the enterprise stocking cycle will generally start 3-5 days in advance. So today, let's talk about whether wheat and corn can make a "turnaround" with the May Day holiday.
first of all, it is clear that the current auction of grain storage is circular, which means that the auction will not stop in the short term. In addition, the auction of grain storage in this round is a conventional one to harvest new wheat, and its bottom auction price is basically the same as or even slightly higher than the market price, which largely shows that the official suppression of wheat prices in this round of auction is not meaningful!
Secondly, for the current grain holders, they have experienced a big roller coaster, and a large number of grain sources have entered the market. At present, the surplus at the grass-roots level has been greatly reduced. Even the high-priced grain in the early stage has greatly reduced the average cost of building warehouses through bargain hunting, and the grain holders' willingness to ship has been relatively weakened, which is also the reason why the price reduction and milling enterprises have made little moves for two days!
At present, the price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed, and the advantages of wheat feeding have begun to stand out. In addition, the rising price of soybean meal has pulled the temperature of bran back, and the profits of flour milling enterprises have recovered, which still has a certain supporting effect on wheat prices! However, it should be noted that imported soybeans will arrive in Hong Kong, which may affect the trend of soybean meal prices and may form new negative constraints on wheat!
finally, everyone has been saying that the demand is weak. If we look at the consumption of flour alone, the overall difference is not very big. After all, it is rations. There are three main reasons for the sharp drop in wheat prices. First, last year, there was a high yield, but grass-roots farmers chased high prices and shipped less, which led to a great increase in grain sources after the year. Second, excessive speculation in wheat caused the rise of wheat to exceed the market standard. With the bursting of the "bubble", the price drop was inevitable! Third, the demand for wheat is single, especially after entering the post-epidemic era. At present, many families are consuming the "inventory" before the epidemic, but according to official data, the catering industry is recovering rapidly, which is conducive to the sale of flour!
With the acceleration of grain storage rotation, the supply pressure in the market may increase, but mainly depends on the transaction situation. According to the transaction on Wednesday, there is not much room for wheat to fall back. However, it should be noted that the current round of grain storage is rotation, and the ultimate goal is to pay as much as possible, which is beneficial to the price of new wheat. This year's new wheat production is worrying, which will have a negative effect on the wheat in 2122, and the upcoming May Day is a good ".
Although the era of high price of wheat seems to have passed, the rising planting cost and unstable surrounding environment are bound to prevent wheat from falling into the dust, and there is still a rising momentum. Xiao Bian thinks that after a period of leveling, the final price of wheat will remain at 1.55 yuan/kg!
For the current corn, there is not much to say. The price fluctuation in Shandong and North China mainly refers to the arrival of enterprises. In Northeast China, with the decrease of circulating grain sources, the futures warmed up, and the mentality of grain holders stabilized, the price began to rebound steadily. Even in the face of the fall of wheat prices at this stage, enterprises are relatively cautious in their operations. As for imported corn, which has attracted much attention, even though it has certain advantages in price, there is a high probability that it will not directly impact the domestic market.
However, at this stage, corn is in the stage of bottoming out. Even though there are still many bad news, the general trend is stabilizing. We can think that the current corn is in a situation of "having a top and a bottom", but the risk is relatively controllable and the price is also rising in the shock. The current mentality of grain holders is the key to affecting market price fluctuations!
In the coming May Day holiday, tourism+catering is the main theme. At present, many tourist cities have begun to "warm up" in advance, and the demand for wheat and corn products has been obviously boosted. At present, the main grain holders are not willing to ship, which is likely to lead to a wave of rapid increase. If the boss is planning to ship, he must seize the middle and early stages of price increase. After all, a high price increase is likely to cause a wave of volume increase! After the price rises quickly, it is very easy to fall quickly! Therefore, it is necessary for grain holders to prepare early!
conclusion: at present, it is an extremely "ordeal" period for traders. The future of the market is unclear, the market is shrouded in bearish sentiment, and the official attitude is unclear. In addition, it is less than two months before the new wheat is listed. However, with the tightening of supply and the recovery of downstream demand, the driving force for the rise of wheat and corn will continue to increase. This round of wheat decline will have a certain impact on corn. Within the acceptable range, more attention has been paid recently.
Remarks: The above analysis of the corn and wheat market at this stage only represents personal views. For reference only, not as a basis for investment. Different opinions are welcome to leave a message for discussion. Investment is risky, and trade needs to be cautious!