The recent fluctuations in the live pig market are also a bit confusing.

Previously, due to the influence of high production capacity and low consumption, pig prices have been falling all the way. Later, with the help of repeated purchasing and storage, the pig price continued to rise from last week, rising from "prefix 5" to "prefix 7" in one breath, which is still a rare market this year.

However, the good times did not last long. Recently, there have been two "strange phenomena" in the live pig market, which are really confusing:

The first "strange phenomenon" is that the fifth round of central purchasing and storage transactions were 0, and all of them were auctioned.

The fifth round plans to purchase and store 40,000 tons, and the starting price is 2 1.950 yuan/ton. As a result, no enterprise bid, and the transaction was 0.

This is really a bit ridiculous. It is said that the price of pigs has fallen and the losses are serious. In order to boost the mood of the pig market, why did the purchasing and storage still fail? In addition to high purchasing and storage requirements and relatively limited qualified enterprises, there are two reasons worth collecting:

First, the price of piglets has rebounded significantly recently, indicating that demand has increased. This is a more positive signal, which means that everyone is more optimistic about the trend of the subsequent pig market, so the demand for piglets has increased.

Second, from the starting price, it is almost the same as the previous two prices, but the pig market situation at this time is different from the previous two.

In the first two purchasing and storage, the pig market did not respond much, and the pig price hardly increased significantly. However, this time, due to the overlapping of pig prices and the poor transportation caused by the epidemic, the price of pigs has increased significantly, further aggravating farmers' expectations for the subsequent trend of pig prices. Then, looking at this starting price is obviously unattractive.

The second "strange phenomenon" is that after several days of boosting, the price of pigs suddenly fell in a large area recently, and then began to stop falling in a small area.

Originally, the current increase in pig prices was not caused by the reversal of production capacity. Therefore, with the epidemic under control, the traffic gradually recovered, the supply increased, and the decline in pig prices was naturally understandable.

But then there was a rebound, which made people feel a little confused: why did it rise again?

From the perspective of new farmers, pig prices are mainly affected by several reasons:

First, the drop in pig prices is "real".

The decline in pig prices can be said to be in line with the current situation of the pig market. Although the productivity of fertile sows can be restored to the normal range, it does not mean that the supply and demand of the live pig market are balanced, and the supply is still in a situation of oversupply, which is difficult to support the long-term recovery of pig prices.

Coupled with the recent rise in food prices, feed companies are still under pressure, so it is difficult for pig prices to really rise under the two-way squeeze.

Second, the rise in pig prices is "fake".

Why is the rise in pig prices "fake"? Because this rise presents a situation of polarization between the north and the south, that is, the southern region has fallen more and the northern region has rebounded relatively. The reason is that due to the epidemic situation, the tide of hoarding goods in the north has shown signs of rising recently, which has boosted the growth of some pork consumption.

But obviously, this is temporary, not long-term, so I'm afraid it's hard to last, so it may be "false prosperity."

Then, the "May Day" is coming, and May Day is a long holiday. Will it affect the price of pigs?

On the one hand, the May Day holiday will boost pork consumption to a certain extent, that is to say, the probability of a sharp drop in pig prices due to consumption is not high.

On the one hand, the disadvantage is that due to the epidemic situation, catering is still in a downturn during the May Day period, and the scope of stimulating consumption is limited, which means that the price of pigs is also limited.

Therefore, the May 1 pig price may continue to rise and fall rapidly, fluctuating back and forth. After all, in the absence of a significant recovery in consumer expectations, it is difficult for pig prices to rise sharply.

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