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Ask God for help to write an article about the analysis of macroeconomic situation in the first three quarters of 2112 and the forecast of macroeconomic situation in the fourth quarter of 2112.

In the first three quarters, faced with the complicated and severe economic situation at home and abroad, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council adhered to the general tone of striving for progress while maintaining stability, correctly handled the relationship among maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting economic structure and managing inflation expectations, put steady growth in a more important position, implemented proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, and intensified the pre-adjustment and fine-tuning of policies. The national economy was generally stable, showing the positive trend of stabilizing economic operation, accelerating structural adjustment and continuing improvement of people's livelihood.

according to the preliminary calculation, the GDP in the first three quarters was 35,348 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.7% at comparable prices. Among them, it increased by 8.1% in the first quarter, 7.6% in the second quarter and 7.4% in the third quarter. In terms of industries, the added value of the primary industry was 3,318.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%; The added value of the secondary industry was 165.429 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1%; The added value of the tertiary industry was 154.963 billion yuan, up by 7.9%. From the ring comparison, the GDP in the third quarter increased by 2.2%.

First, the agricultural production situation is good, and autumn grain is expected to reap another bumper harvest

The total output of summer grain in China is 129.95 million tons, an increase of 3.56 million tons or 2.8% over the previous year; The total output of early rice was 33.29 million tons, an increase of 536 thousand tons or 1.6% over the previous year; Autumn grain production is expected to reap another bumper harvest. In the first three quarters, the output of pork, cattle, sheep and poultry was 57.28 million tons, up 5.1% year-on-year, of which the output of pork was 37.54 million tons, up 5.2%. The number of live pigs was 468.22 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%; 492.98 million pigs were slaughtered, an increase of 5.1%.

second, the growth rate of industrial production declined slightly, and corporate profits decreased year-on-year

in the first three quarters, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 11.1% year-on-year at comparable prices, and the growth rate dropped by 1.5 percentage points compared with the first half of the year. In terms of economic types, the added value of state-owned and state-controlled enterprises increased by 6.3% year-on-year, collective enterprises increased by 7.6%, joint-stock enterprises increased by 11.8%, and foreign-invested enterprises from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan increased by 6.1%. In terms of light and heavy industries, the added value of heavy industries increased by 9.7% year-on-year, while that of light industries increased by 11.4%. In terms of industries, the added value of 41 of the 41 major industries increased year-on-year. By region, the added value of the eastern region increased by 8.6%, the central region by 11.6% and the western region by 12.8%. In terms of products, the output of 343 of the 471 products in the first three quarters increased year-on-year. Among them, power generation increased by 3.6%, steel increased by 5.7%, cement increased by 6.7%, ten non-ferrous metals increased by 7.1%, ethylene decreased by 2.9%, automobiles increased by 7.3%, and cars increased by 8.4%. In the first three quarters, the production and sales rate of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 97.8%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year. Industrial enterprises above designated size realized export delivery value of 7,774.8 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year. In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.2% year-on-year and 1.79% quarter-on-quarter.

from October to August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 3,159.7 billion yuan, down 3.1% year-on-year. Among the 41 major industrial sectors, 24 industries' profits increased year-on-year, 16 industries decreased year-on-year, and 1 industries turned from profits to losses in the same period. From October to August, the cost per 111 yuan of main business income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 85.47 yuan, an increase of 1.22 yuan over the first half of the year; The profit rate of main business income of industrial enterprises above designated size is 5.31%.

third, the investment in fixed assets grew steadily and rapidly, and the growth rate of total planned investment in newly started projects accelerated

In the first three quarters, the investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) was 25,693.3 billion yuan, with a nominal growth rate of 21.5% year-on-year (with a real growth rate of 18.8% after deducting the price factor), and the growth rate was 1.1 percentage point faster than that in the first half of the year. Among them, state-owned and state-controlled investment was 8,444.4 billion yuan, an increase of 13.6%. By region, the investment in the eastern region increased by 18.4%, the central region by 25.8% and the western region by 24.1%. In terms of industries, the investment in the primary industry was 654.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.2%; The investment in the secondary industry was 11,366.2 billion yuan, an increase of 22.4%; The investment in the tertiary industry was 136725 billion yuan, up by 19.4%. Among the investment in the secondary industry, industrial investment was 111745 billion yuan, up 22.5% year-on-year. Among them, the investment in mining industry was 885.5 billion yuan, up by 17.4%; Investment in manufacturing industry was 911.6 billion yuan, an increase of 23.5%; The investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water was 1,177.4 billion yuan, up by 1.9%. In the first three quarters, the investment in infrastructure (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water) was 3,867.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, and the growth rate was 5.8 percentage points faster than that in the first half of the year. Judging from the funds in place, the funds in place in the first three quarters were 28,941.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%. Among them, the state budget funds increased by 27.4%, domestic loans increased by 8.8%, self-raised funds increased by 21.9%, foreign capital utilization decreased by 6.3%, and other funds increased by 11.3%. In the first three quarters, the planned total investment of newly started projects was 22,686.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.7%, 2.5 percentage points faster than that of the first half of the year; 276,276 new projects were started, an increase of 19,327. From the ring comparison, investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) increased by 1.63% in September.

Fourth, the growth rate of investment in real estate development continued to decline, and the growth rate of commercial housing sales turned from negative to positive

In the first three quarters, the national investment in real estate development was 5,114.6 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 15.4% year-on-year (a real increase of 13.8% after deducting the price factor), and the growth rate dropped by 1.2 percentage points compared with the first half of the year and by 16.6 percentage points compared with the same period of last year; Among them, residential investment increased by 11.5%. The newly started housing area was 1,351.14 million square meters, down 8.6% year-on-year, with a decrease of 1.5 percentage point higher than that in the first half of the year and an increase of 23.7% in the same period of last year. Among them, the newly started residential area decreased by 12.9%. The sales area of commercial housing in China was 684.4 million square meters, down 4.1% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 6.1 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year, with an increase of 12.9% in the same period of last year; Among them, the residential sales area decreased by 4.3%, which was 6.9 percentage points smaller than that in the first half of the year. The sales volume of commercial housing nationwide was 4,135.4 billion yuan, up by 2.7%, down by 5.2% in the first half of the year, and the growth rate dropped by 21.5 percentage points over the same period of last year. Among them, residential sales increased by 3.3%, and decreased by 6.5% in the first half of the year. In the first three quarters, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises was 261.33 million square meters, down by 16.5% year-on-year. The area of commercial housing for sale nationwide was 326.7 million square meters, an increase of 35.6%. In the first three quarters, real estate development enterprises received 6,823.2 billion yuan this year, up by 11.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 4.4 percentage points faster than that in the first half of the year. Among them, domestic loans increased by 12.9%, self-raised funds increased by 11.4%, utilization of foreign capital decreased by 53.3%, and other funds increased by 9.6%.

5. The market sales grew steadily, and the retail sales of commodities grew faster than that of catering

In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 14,942.2 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 14.1% year-on-year (a real increase of 11.6% after deducting the price factor), and the growth rate dropped by 1.3 percentage points compared with the first half of the year. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods by enterprises (units) above designated size was 7,158 billion yuan, up by 14.4% year-on-year. According to the location of business units, the retail sales of urban consumer goods was 12,933.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%; The retail sales of rural consumer goods reached 2,119 billion yuan, up by 14.4%. According to consumption patterns, catering revenue was 1,667.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3.2%; Retail sales of commodities reached 13,274.9 billion yuan, up by 14.2%. In the retail sales of commodities, the retail sales of enterprises (units) above designated size reached 6,616.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%. Among them, automobiles increased by 6.9%, furniture increased by 26.2%, and household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 6.1%. In September, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 14.2% year-on-year in nominal terms (by 13.2% in real terms after deducting the price factor) and by 1.46% month-on-month.

VI. The growth rate of import and export slowed down, and the foreign trade surplus increased

In the first three quarters, the total import and export volume was US$ 2,842.5 billion, up 6.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.8 percentage points compared with the first half of the year and by 18.4 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. Among them, exports reached US$ 1,495.4 billion, an increase of 7.4%; Imports reached US$ 1,347 billion, up by 4.8%. Import and export balance, the surplus of 148.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 41.2 billion US dollars. Of the total import and export, the import and export of general trade was US$ 1,499 billion, up by 5.9%; The import and export of processing trade reached 982.9 billion US dollars, up by 2.2%. Among the export volume, the general trade export was 729.8 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.3%; The export of processing trade was US$ 631.9 billion, up 3.1%. Among the imports, general trade imports amounted to 769.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.6%; Imports of processing trade reached US$ 352 billion, up by 1.9%. In September, the total import and export volume was US$ 345.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. Among them, exports were US$ 186.35 billion, an increase of 9.9%; Imports reached US$ 158.68 billion, up by 2.4%.

VII. The growth of money supply accelerated, and new loans increased more than the same period of last year

At the end of September, the balance of broad money (M2) was 94.37 trillion yuan, up by 14.8% year-on-year, 1.3 and 1.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the end of last year respectively; The balance of narrow money (M1) was 28.68 trillion yuan, up by 7.3%, 2.8 percentage points faster than the end of last month and 1.6 percentage points lower than the end of last year; The balance of money in circulation (M1) was 5.34 trillion yuan, up by 13.3%. At the end of September, the balance of RMB loans was 61.51 trillion yuan, and the balance of RMB deposits was 89.96 trillion yuan. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 6.72 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.14 trillion yuan over the same period of last year; RMB deposits increased by 9.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 924.3 billion yuan.

VIII. The increase in consumer prices continued to fall, and the prices of industrial producers fell year-on-year

In the first three quarters, consumer prices rose by 2.8% year-on-year, with the increase rate dropping by 1.5 percentage points from the first half of the year and 2.9 percentage points from the same period of last year. Among them, cities rose by 2.9% and rural areas rose by 2.7%. By category, food prices rose by 5.5% year-on-year, tobacco, alcohol and supplies rose by 3.3%, clothing rose by 3.4%, household equipment and maintenance services rose by 2.1%, medical care and personal supplies rose by 2.1%, entertainment, education, cultural goods and services rose by 1.3%, housing rose by 2.1%, and transportation and communication fell by 1.2% year-on-year. In September, consumer prices rose by 1.9% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter. In the first three quarters, the ex-factory price of industrial producers decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with a decrease of 1.9 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year and an increase of 7.1% in the same period of last year; Among them, September decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter. In the first three quarters, the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 1.5% year-on-year; Among them, September decreased by 4.1% year-on-year and rose by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter.

IX. The income of urban and rural residents increased rapidly. The income growth rate of rural residents was faster than that of cities and towns.

In the first three quarters, the per capita total income of urban residents was 21,191 yuan. Among them, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 18,427 yuan, a nominal increase of 13.1% year-on-year; After deducting the price factor, it actually increased by 9.8%, and the growth rate was 2.1 percentage points faster than the same period of last year. Among the total per capita income of urban residents, wage income increased by 12.7% in nominal terms, transfer income increased by 12.4%, net operating income increased by 15.4%, and property income increased by 12.4%. In the first three quarters, the per capita cash income of rural residents was 6778 yuan, a nominal increase of 15.4% year-on-year; After deducting the price factor, it actually increased by 12.3%, down 1.3 percentage points from the same period of last year. Among them, wage income increased by 16.9% in nominal terms, household operating income increased by 13.3%, property income increased by 16.3%, and transfer income increased by 22.4%. At the end of the third quarter, there were 168.67 million migrant workers in rural areas, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%; In the first three quarters, the average monthly income of migrant workers was 2249 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%. In the first three quarters, the median per capita disposable income of urban residents was 16,358 yuan, a nominal increase of 14.2% year-on-year; The median per capita cash income of rural residents was 5788 yuan, with a nominal increase of 15.8%.

in the next stage, we should follow the central government's decision-making arrangements, adhere to the general tone of steady progress, continue to put steady growth in a more important position, earnestly implement various policies and measures that have been introduced, and effectively promote structural adjustment and industrial upgrading that have achieved initial results, so as to lay a more solid foundation for sustainable and healthy economic development.