The turnover forecast is a key step in the process of opening a store. Therefore, we must adopt an objective, rigorous and scientific attitude and scientific methods. Only in this way can we improve the reliability and accuracy of the turnover forecast and provide a guiding basis for other links in the development of new stores, such as negotiation and determination of investment plans. According to different formats, different brands' financial models and operating modes, various methods and systems of turnover prediction are derived. Let me take the catering format as an example to introduce several methods of turnover prediction. Other formats can learn from this. According to the characteristics of their own formats and the changes of financial models, we can accurately predict the turnover of the store by properly adjusting several variables or coefficients.

there are five methods to estimate the turnover of new stores: peer-to-peer store estimation method, passenger flow test estimation method, customer gathering point estimation method, competitive brand or other brands with the same format comparison estimation method, and new store turnover estimation method in tourist-oriented business circle. These five methods have their own advantages and disadvantages, and each has its own emphasis.

1

Peer-to-peer store forecasting method

Based on the analysis of factors such as the city, business circle, location and size of the new store, the existing old stores that are similar or similar to each other in terms of city, business circle, location and size are selected for peer-to-peer analysis, and the turnover of the new store is predicted according to the turnover of the existing stores. In order to ensure the accuracy of the forecast, based on the basic logic that there cannot be exactly the same store, when using this method for forecasting,

when selecting the sample of peer-to-peer cities, we must choose cities with basically similar urban appearance or similar urban indicators, otherwise the comparability of peer-to-peer data will be poor, and the accuracy and reliability of the estimated business volume will be poor. In the selection of peer-to-peer cities, the following urban index variables are mainly compared, such as urban population, urban area, population density, residents' income, residents' consumption, urban GDP, industrial structure, pillar industries, total dining out, total social consumption and retail sales, customers' consumption habits, competitors' operating conditions, etc., in order to obtain a relatively accurate peer-to-peer comparison.

in the process of selecting a peer-to-peer store, not only the city is peer-to-peer, but also the business circle is peer-to-peer. As a peer-to-peer store, the business circle type and consumption capacity should be close. Besides the main factors such as the business circle type, population, income level and the situation of gathering customers, it is still necessary to comprehensively consider the slight differences between the peer-to-peer store and the new site. It is necessary to scientifically adjust various digital variables (such as the flow of people and the turnover rate of the new store) according to the actual situation.

estimation formula: new store turnover = peer-to-peer store * city coefficient * business circle coefficient * scale coefficient * consumer habit coefficient

In short, in the peer-to-peer store estimation method, the closest and most similar peer-to-peer store must be selected according to various peer-to-peer elements and standards, and only in this way can the estimated turnover data have reference value. When a private brand cannot find a suitable peer-to-peer store due to the small number of stores or the types of cities it covers, it can also choose a peer-to-peer store from other brands or competitors in the same industry to estimate the turnover, and this choice must also be strictly implemented in accordance with the principle of reciprocity.

2

Method for estimating the flow of people

It is a common method in the industry to estimate the turnover of new stores according to the flow of people in front of the new site.

the formula of the forecast is: new store turnover = daily average passenger flow * capture rate * average transaction customer unit price

among them, the acquisition of the following variables is the key to accurate forecast, such as the acquisition of daily average passenger flow, capture rate and average transaction customer unit price. In a word, the accuracy of the above variables is the primary consideration in the traffic test and prediction method. Only when the data of several variables match the selected peer-to-peer stores can the estimated turnover data be of reference significance. When the number of self-owned brand stores is small or the types of cities covered are few, and it is impossible to find a suitable peer-to-peer store, we can also select peer-to-peer stores from other brands or competitors in the same industry for variable test and extraction.

3

forecast method of gathering points

forecast method of gathering points is to directly select the turnover of existing old shops in similar or similar gathering points as the estimated turnover of the new site according to the basic situation of the new site, in which a certain variable coefficient can be determined according to the equivalent difference.

the estimation formula is: the turnover of new stores = the turnover of old shops in peer-to-peer gathering points * variable coefficient

Among them, the turnover of old shops in peer-to-peer gathering points can choose the same brand old shops in the gathering points with similar volume and operating brands. The ratio of the volume or turnover of the peer-to-peer gathering point (department store, supermarket, etc.) to the volume or turnover difference of the newly opened gathering point is taken as one of the variable coefficients, and the size and location difference between the newly opened store and the peer-to-peer old store is selected as the second variable coefficient. When choosing a peer-to-peer gathering point, the main peer-to-peer reference indicators are: the volume of the gathering point, the brand of the gathering point, the business format of the gathering point and the business performance of the gathering point.

4

Comparative prediction method of competitive brands or other brands with the same format

Comparative prediction method of competitive brands or other brands with the same format is a method adopted when the own brands cannot find the equivalent stores. When a general brand has just been established, this method is also very practical in practice, because it is difficult to find out the equivalent stores because of the small number of stores for the first time and the uneven distribution of stores in regions, cities and business districts.

the estimation formula is: new store turnover = turnover of other brand stores in the same business district or property * variable coefficient

other brand stores: it is best to be in the same business district or property as the new address, and the business format must be the same.

acquisition of the turnover of other brand stores: the number of transactions and the average transaction amount measured in their stores can be obtained by multiplying the two data (you can choose Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday for in-store measurement).

the calculation formula of average daily turnover is: measured four-day transaction times * measured average transaction amount /4

variable coefficient: the location difference between the new address in the same business district and other brand stores is taken as variable 1, and the size of the store is taken as variable 2.

5

New store turnover estimation in tourist-oriented business districts

This estimation method is only suitable for tourist areas or scenic spots, and the customer groups are mainly tourists.

the prediction formula is: daily average turnover = annual tourist volume /365 days * capture rate * average transaction volume per order

annual tourist volume: the actual passenger flow of the tourist attraction or tourist area in the previous year can be obtained through the tourist attractions, plus the annual tourist volume growth factor.

capture rate: it can be obtained through peer-to-peer stores in the same business district.

average transaction amount per order: it can be obtained through peer-to-peer stores with average daily data in the same business circle.

It is very important to estimate the turnover in site selection. Correctly estimating the turnover is the premise of measuring the profitability of the store, and it is also a factor that must be considered in the site selection stage. Only when the turnover forecast is as accurate as possible can the investment risk be effectively controlled. The above is the method of the turnover estimation test I compiled for you, hoping to help the boss who is going to open a shop, and I will continue to prepare relevant knowledge about opening a shop for you in the future. If you have any questions or suggestions about this article, please feel free to leave us a message, and we will answer them for you as soon as possible!