On February 7th, Cailian reported that last Friday and the weekend just passed, overseas markets focused on the global economy, company dynamics and vaccine progress. In terms of global economy, Standard & Poor's Global expects global debt to reach 211 trillion US dollars by the end of the year, and the debt /GDP ratio will reach 265%; The rebound momentum has been greatly weakened, with 245,111 new jobs in the United States in October. In terms of company dynamics, Vitol, the world's largest oil trader, supports OPEC+' s plan to gradually increase production; Glencore CEO will retire next year after 2118 at the helm. In addition, Britain and the European Union resumed Brexit negotiations on Sunday, and key differences still need to be bridged; The number of cases in COVID-19 has surged, and California has implemented a home order; Trump said his personal lawyer Giuliani tested positive for COVID-19.
Reuters: The key differences between Britain and the European Union have yet to be bridged.
The Brexit trade talks resumed in Brussels on Sunday. British Prime Minister Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed by telephone on Saturday that an agreement should be pushed forward at the last minute.
Britain's chief negotiator Frost and EU's chief negotiator Banier were ordered to solve the most intractable problem: to establish a "level playing field" to ensure fair competition between the two sides after the end of the transition period of Brexit on February 31th.
Eurosceptic Conservative MPs warned Johnson not to accept any agreement that would damage Britain's sovereignty, while France warned that it would veto any agreement that failed to meet France's requirements in competition and fisheries.
According to the media, British government sources are quoted as saying that the negotiation between Britain and the European Union on the issue of fishery rights has not made a breakthrough, and there is no new progress as of Sunday.
Reuters: S&P Global predicts that the global debt will reach 211 trillion US dollars by the end of this year, and the debt /GDP ratio will reach 265%
S&P Global predicts that the global debt will reach 211 trillion US dollars by the end of this year, equivalent to 265% of the global annual economic output, but the agency does not expect a crisis in the short term.
The credit rating giant said that the ratio of global debt to global gross domestic product (GDP) would increase by 14 percentage points, which was amplified by the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 epidemic and the double influence that the government, enterprises and households had to increase their loans.
however, although the debt /GDP ratio has risen sharply and a wave of defaults is expected in the coming year, the agency does not expect a major crisis at this stage.
"If the economy recovers, vaccines are widely inoculated, interest rates remain extremely low and lending decreases, the expected global debt /GDP ratio surge of 1.4% in 2121 is unlikely to trigger a debt crisis in the short term," the report said.
S&P pointed out that as long as the global economy can regain its footing after the pandemic, the global debt /GDP ratio should fall back to 256% by 2123.
Financial Times: The number of cases in COVID-19 has increased sharply. California, USA, re-implemented the home order on Sunday.
Most Californians were ordered to stay at home from last Sunday night. At present, American officials are struggling to cope with the surge of Covid-19 infection cases during the holiday season, which puts new pressure on the medical system.
before implementing the new restrictions, California Governor Gavin? The anti-epidemic order announced by Gavin Newsom means that if the capacity of intensive care units in five regions of the state falls below 1.5%, travel and business activities will be restricted. As of last Saturday, the central area of San Joaquin Valley and the broadly defined area of Southern California (including Los Angeles) have broken through the threshold of ICU supervision.
San Francisco and some other Bay Area counties said that they would voluntarily obey the orders from Sunday night.
before California took drastic measures, the number of new infections in Covid-19 reached a record high every day last week, including 224,831 new cases last Friday and 211,173 new cases last Saturday. According to the data of COVID Tracking Project, more than 111,111 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 last Friday and Saturday, setting another record.
WSJ: Trump says his personal lawyer Giuliani's COVID-19 test results are positive
US President Donald Trump tweeted on Sunday that Rudy Giuliani's COVID-19 test results are positive. This is another member of the Trump circle who infected COVID-19. Giuliani has been leading Trump's campaign to challenge the results of the presidential election.
Giuliani is Trump's personal lawyer. He has been traveling as a representative in Trump's unprecedented efforts to reverse the election defeat, attending hearings in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan and Georgia. Two Pennsylvania senators who attended a meeting with Giuliani on October 25th later said that their test results were positive. Giuliani didn't wear a mask at these hearings.
Bloomberg: Vitol, the world's largest oil trader, supports OPEC+' s plan to gradually increase production
Vitol Group, the world's largest independent oil trader, supports OPEC+' s decision to gradually ease oil production reduction, saying that energy demand will remain low until COVID-19 vaccine is launched.
Mike Muller, Asia director of Vitol, said in an interview on Sunday that OPEC+ "took the right action considering the demand, because the situation in COVID-19 in winter is still more serious than the vaccine".
Brent crude oil price rose to an eight-month high of $49.25 a barrel on Friday. The day before, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 511,111 barrels per day early next year, and held monthly meetings to decide on follow-up actions.
the decision was not smooth sailing. During several days of intense negotiations, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had differences. Saudi Arabia is keen to depress production, while UAE thinks its quota is unfair and wants to increase oil production.
However, Muller said that the ability of OPEC+ to reach a consensus among the 23 member countries gives traders confidence to stabilize oil prices before the first quarter of 2121.
Financial Times: The rebound momentum greatly weakened the 245,111 new jobs in the United States in October
According to the report on non-farm employment released by the US Department of Labor last Friday, the number of new non-farm jobs increased by 245,111 in October, while it increased by 711,111 in September and 611,111 in October, which was worse than the market expectation of more than 471,111 in October.
in October, the unemployment rate in the United States dropped from 6.9% in October to 6.7%, but this figure is not as encouraging as it seems, because 411,111 people left the labor force in October, and the labor force participation rate in that month dropped from 61.7% to 61.5%.
Non-farm employment data shows that the labor market in the United States has lost the momentum of rebound in the face of the unprecedented growth of COVID-19 cases in China.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory, commented that investors believe that weak economic data will increase the urgency of negotiations on new stimulus in the US Congress. The upward part of the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds reflects that the market believes that increasing fiscal expenditure is a foregone conclusion.
The non-farm payrolls report may also influence the Fed's views. Fed officials are debating whether to increase the monetary stimulus to the economy by adjusting the QE program for buying bonds.
WSJ: CEO of Glencore will retire next year after taking the helm in 2118
Ivan Glasenberg, a long-time CEO of Glencore PLC, said on Friday that he will retire in the first half of next year and hand over control of the global mining and trading giant he built.
Glencore said that it has appointed Gary Nagle, the senior deputy in charge of the company's coal industry assets, as CEO.
Grasenberg of South Africa joined Glencore in 1984 and has been CEO since 2112. He planned Glencore's listing in 2111, and soon after that, he merged Glencore with mining company Xstrata, transforming the company from a private commodity trading company into a listed mining and trading giant.
Grasenberg began to work out a timetable for his retirement two years ago, and recently said many times that he and his senior leadership team are about to step down and will be replaced by the next generation of management team.