Modern small farmers
A vice minister of the Ministry of Agriculture recently wrote an article describing the basic scale of farmers' operation in China before 2050.
By the end of 20 16, there were 260 million farmers with a scale of less than 50 mu, accounting for 97% of the total number of farmers, and the cultivated land area accounted for 82% of the total area, with an average cultivated land area of 5 mu per household.
In 2020, there will still be about 220 million small farmers with a business scale of less than 50 mu, and the cultivated land area will account for about 80% of the total cultivated land area in China.
In 2030, there will still be 65.438+0.7 billion households with business scale below 50 mu, and the proportion of cultivated land will be about 70%.
In 2050, there will still be about 654.38 billion farmers with a scale of less than 50 mu, and the proportion of cultivated land under management will be about 50%.
It is a basic fact that the business scope below 50 mu is small farmers. Before 2050, China will still be dominated by small farmers.
02
Changes of small farmers
Primitive small farmers → natural small farmers → commodity small farmers → modern small farmers? The change of small farmers follows the above laws.
At present, it is a mixture of natural small farmers and commodity small farmers, and it is moving towards modern small farmers. But it still takes time.
Field crops may go to large-scale agriculture, but cash crops will mainly be "modern small farmers"
The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China puts forward: building modern agricultural industrial system, production system and management system, perfecting agricultural support and maintenance system, developing various forms of moderate scale operation, cultivating new agricultural management subjects, perfecting agricultural socialized service system, and realizing the organic connection between small farmers and modern agricultural development.
This sentence is crucial: small farmers should also realize modern agriculture.
Ancient small farmers, I know what this means.
Modern small farmers, where is modernity? This is a big problem that I will discuss in another article.
From the central point of view, the proposition of "modern small farmers" has been established.
03
Value-added agriculture
The era of harvest agriculture is over, and the era of value-added agriculture has begun.
In the past, increasing farmers' income started from three aspects: first, increasing grain production; The second is the promotion of food prices; The third is the change of planting area.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the 12-year continuous increase stopped at 20 16, and the three major agricultural indicators all declined.
In 20 16, China's total grain output was 6162.39 million tons (12,324.8 billion Jin), which was 520 10/0.000 million tons (/kloc-0.04 billion Jin) lower than that in 20 15.
The national grain harvest area is 1 13028.2 thousand hectares (1695423 thousand mu), which is 3 14.7 thousand hectares (472 10000 mu) lower than the previous year, with a decrease of 0.3%.
The average yield of grain crops in China is 5452. 1 kg (363.5 kg/mu) per hectare, which is 30.7 kg (2.0 kg/mu) lower than that in 20 15 years, with a decrease of 0.6%.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, grain has "three highs". 20/kloc-the total output in 0/6 years10.23 trillion Jin, and the import volume is 0.222 trillion Jin, accounting for18% of the total output; The inventory in 20 15 years is 0.5 trillion Jin, which exceeds the total output by 0.452 trillion Jin.
It is unrealistic to increase production and raise food prices. The prices of wheat, rice and corn are 30% to 50% higher than those in the international market.
There is only one way for farmers to increase their income: value-added agriculture!
04、
Value growth space
In 20 14, the industries (output) of fast-moving consumer goods (food, drinks and beverages) began to decline, for example, the convenience surface dropped from the highest 46.2 billion packages in 20 13 to 38.5 billion packages in 20 16.
Agriculture and animal husbandry (productivity) began to decline in 20 15, and it has been declining for two years.
20 16, agricultural output began to decline.
Is this coincidence or is there an internal logic? I think there is industry criticality.
When the downstream industry of grain industry begins to shift from quantity growth to value growth, grain supply must also take this road, otherwise it will not be able to support the value growth of other industries.
The value-added space of agriculture lies in the value-added space of its downstream industries.
05
Is there a market for value-added agriculture?
Has value-added agriculture been digested by society?
There are five areas for agricultural customers: first, residents' expenditure; The second is food processing; The third is the catering industry; Fourth, modern retail; Fifth, feed processing.
The above five areas have strong demand for high-end agriculture.
Household consumption. Taking Wuchang rice as an example, the sales situation is so good that it shows great market potential.
Food processing. Take high-end instant noodles as an example, which is growing rapidly, just like Tang Daren of a company.
Like fresh e-commerce, modern retail needs high-quality products.
The downstream of agriculture can add value, and agricultural talents can add value. Agriculture can be value-added, and its ability ensures the downstream value-added supply.
06
Agricultural service
Modern small farmers, this is a contradiction with duality.
Small farmers symbolize the small scale of cultivated land.
Small scale means that the ability to connect high and low tourism industries independently is poor, which means that it needs to be attached to some service subjects.
Modernity means no longer self-employed and self-reliant, but participating in the socialized division of labor in agriculture.
Because it is a small farmer, it is impossible to create a closed-loop business entity.
Because of its modernity, it may be related to agricultural service institutions.
The basic feature of modern small farmers is that they rely on external agricultural services. In the past, we may have thought too much about agricultural technical services.
Some people visited Jiangsu, Anhui, Hunan, Henan, Sichuan and other provinces, and the number of people who left the countryside or were employed outside their places of residence reached 47% of the total population. The main force of agricultural labor force is the rural resident population over 3665 years old.
Farmers will inherit the migration, but the migration speed will slow down. The countryside will continue to age, but it will suddenly decrease.
There will be three main bodies in agriculture in the future. The contractor is a registered farmer; The main business entities are registered farmers and migrant workers; The main producers are agricultural service providers.
The main body of production is the agricultural service provider, which means that farmers may or may not work.
This is the case in America. Farmers in the United States only account for 1.8% of the population, and the population directly or indirectly serving agriculture accounts for 17%.
07
Agricultural module
Agricultural services have five modules.
Agricultural services = agricultural materials+breeding services+agricultural technical services (PCA)+ agricultural derivative services+brand agriculture.
Agricultural materials = seeds, pesticides and fertilizers;
Brand agriculture = acquisition, processing, docking trade, B2B, etc.
Agricultural services = sowing, fertilization, harvesting, pesticide application, field management, etc.
Agricultural services = soil testing, prescription, monitoring, etc.
Agricultural derivative services = finance, etc.
Because it is a modern small farmer, brand agriculture plays a decisive role in the above five modules. Brand agriculture is value-added agriculture.
Who can increase the value of small farmers will serve them. This may be different from the United States, because the United States is a big farmer and has a unique business talent.
Therefore, the agricultural service system in the United States is a professional service, and the service system in China may be a comprehensive service led by value-added agriculture.
08
Agricultural service system
Surround modern small farmers and form a new agricultural service system.
Agricultural service system generally includes service providers, platform vendors and integrated integrators.
Brand agriculture, agricultural service and agricultural technology service are all service providers.
Platform vendors are a special agricultural state after the emergence of the Internet, even in the United States.
Agricultural platform providers should rely on the Internet to form a * * * enjoyment platform. Due to the seasonality and regionality of agriculture, the application efficiency of agricultural machinery, agricultural service personnel and agricultural products is not high, and a large agricultural platform can be formed through the platform of * * * *.
Today's agricultural producers will either take products as the center, capital as the center or become agricultural comprehensive integrators in the future.
09
Two great prophecies
In my opinion, within five years, the income from agricultural services will exceed the income from agricultural sales; 10 years, the income from agricultural services is twice that from sales of agricultural materials.
The brand of agricultural service providers will shield the brand of agricultural producers in the future. China ushered in the period when service providers led agriculture.
The income from agricultural services exceeds the income from agricultural materials, that is, the proportion of agricultural materials in agricultural costs (excluding land costs) does not exceed half; The income from agricultural services is twice as much as the sales of agricultural materials, which means that agricultural materials account for less than one-third of the agricultural cost.
The industry needs to do it again, based on three aspects: new scene, new boundary and new cognition.
The development of urban middle class provides opportunities for value-added agriculture.
Agricultural resources industry is originally a small industry. Due to the lack of service subject of small farmers, agricultural workers are crossing the boundary of agricultural materials and entering the agricultural service subject. The border has expanded.
Because of the appearance of the Internet, our understanding of agricultural services has changed. For example, platformization is something that western agriculture does not want.
New opportunities, new boundaries, new knowledge. The agricultural resource industry is being rebuilt.