1, judgment analysis method judgment analysis method is a commonly used qualitative analysis method. The key is to analyze the future changes of the market through some experienced enterprise managers, sales experience staff or related experts to judge the sales trend of a certain product in a certain period of time. Including opinion collection method and expert judgment method.
The opinion collection method, also known as the comprehensive judgment method of salespeople's opinions, is that salespeople who are familiar with the market situation of enterprises investigate all kinds of customers, fill in the survey opinions in cards or forms, and then the sales department makes a comprehensive summary to analyze and predict the sales trend of a product.
Expert judgment method refers to the method that experts with professional knowledge and rich experience solicit opinions to judge and predict the future sales of a product. There are three kinds:
The expert personal opinion set method refers to soliciting the opinions of experts from all sides, asking them to make independent personal judgments on the future trend and current situation of a product sales in this enterprise, and then comprehensively determining the predicted value. This method can collect experts' opinions from different angles, and its accuracy is generally higher than that of the opinion collection method. However, due to the limited information held by experts, it will also be one-sided.
Expert group method is a forecasting method that several expert forecasting groups judge and predict the future sales trend of a product of an enterprise, and then make a comprehensive summary. This method can give full play to the collective wisdom in the process of prediction, thus making the prediction results more accurate.
Delphi method is to solicit the opinions of several experts by letter, and each expert independently predicts and analyzes the future sales of a product of the enterprise, and then the enterprise summarizes the prediction results of each expert and feeds them back to the experts anonymously, so that they can consult other people's opinions again to correct my original judgment, and so on, and finally the strengths of each family comprehensively predict the sales volume.
2. Investigation and analysis This forecasting method is to predict the sales trend of the products of this enterprise by investigating the supply and demand of a certain commodity in the market and the consumption orientation of consumers. The contents of the survey include product survey, customer survey, economic progress trend survey and industry survey.
3. Trend analysis Trend analysis is to predict future sales trends through certain calculation methods based on historical sales data. This method is suitable for enterprises with stable product sales and regular sales changes. Trend analysis is an extension method to infer the future from historical data, so it is also called historical extension method. There are several specific methods for trend analysis: simple moving average method, moving average method, weighted moving average method, exponential smoothing method and seasonal prediction method.
Moving average method is a method of moving forward and averaging n data. By introducing more and more new data, it constantly corrects the average value as the predicted value, thus reflecting the changing trend of the numerical value. The weighted moving average method gives different weights according to the influence of different time data in the same moving segment on the predicted value, and then carries out average moving to predict the future value. Exponential smoothing method predicts the next period according to the actual value of the current period and the past forecast value of the current period, which reflects the influence of the recent actual sales value on the forecast value. Seasonal forecasting method is suitable for selling products with obvious seasonality, and the sales of these products fluctuate greatly with the seasonal changes.
Exponential smoothing calculation formula:
The exponential smoothing coefficient A can be determined according to the historical sales situation. The greater the exponential smoothing coefficient, the greater the weight of the recent actual sales situation, and the greater the impact on the forecast.
4. Causal analysis In economic behavior, various factors are often interrelated and influence each other, forming a certain corresponding relationship with each other. Product sales are generally always affected by various factors. Causal analysis is to find the functional relationship between product sales and various related factors, and use this causal relationship to implement sales forecast. This method often needs to establish a mathematical model of prediction, so it is also called regression analysis. Simple regression analysis and multiple regression analysis are commonly used.