China's economy is still in the post-epidemic recovery period, and relevant reforms and policies still need to be continuously promoted; 2. Investment: The overall situation has steadily improved, and it has not yet returned to the normal level; 3. Consumption: dragged down by income growth, the growth momentum needs to be further released; 4. Leverage ratio: the credit supply is tightening, so we need to guard against related risks; 5. Price: Bulk prices push up PPI, but the transmission to CPI is weak; 6. Balance of payments and exchange rate: the current account rebounds, the trend may be unsustainable, and the RMB exchange rate still faces uncertainty; 7. International economic situation: pay attention to two major risks: the differentiation and recurrence of epidemic situation and the shift of international monetary policy, and actively respond in all directions. Human resources, not the total population, is the basis of long-term economic development; 2. How to protect and improve human resources; 3. How to improve the efficiency of human resources. At present, the epidemic situation in the world has not completely ended, the income and consumption of Chinese residents have not returned to the normal level before the epidemic, and they are still in a slow recovery period driven by the policy of "six stabilities and six guarantees". The foundation for China's economic stabilization needs to be further built. Considering the changes in the terms of foreign trade caused by the possible improvement of cardinal utility and the international epidemic, we expect the economy to show a downward trend quarter by quarter throughout the year. Combined with the high-frequency data and the growth trend of each sub-item, we predict that the real GDP growth rate will be about 8.2% in 2121. If major risks are concentrated, the annual real GDP growth rate may drop to around 7%; If the overall international economic situation improves and consumption recovers steadily, the annual real GDP growth rate is expected to exceed 8.5%. The total amount of human resources refers to the working time reserve of the population in an economy that has the ability to participate in economic and social activities, taking into account the quality of the population (including health level and education level). After comprehensively considering the changes of population structure and the improvement of health and education level, the total amount of human resources in China has been on the rise in the last 21 years, and the total amount of human resources in 2119 was 1.4% higher than that in 2111. According to the forecast, with the continuous improvement of education and health level, the total human resources in China will keep rising steadily and slowly before 2151, which can provide a solid guarantee for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in the new century. We suggest that China's national population policy should be transformed into a human resource strategy, paying more attention to human development and education and health. In the first quarter of 2121, China's real GDP growth rate was 18.3%, 1.6% higher than that in the fourth quarter of 2121; Compared with the first quarter of 2119, it increased by 11.3%, with an average increase of 5.1% in two years. At present, the epidemic situation in the world has not completely ended, the income and consumption of Chinese residents have not returned to the normal level before the epidemic, and they are still in a slow recovery period driven by the policy of "six stabilities and six guarantees". The foundation for China's economic stabilization needs to be further built. Considering the changes in the terms of foreign trade caused by the possible improvement of cardinal utility and the international epidemic, we expect the economy to show a downward trend quarter by quarter throughout the year. Based on the high-frequency data and the growth trend of each sub-item, we predict that the real GDP growth rate will be about 9% in the second quarter of 2121 and about 8.2% in the whole year. If major risks are concentrated, the annual real GDP growth rate may drop to around 7%; If the overall international economic situation improves and consumption recovers steadily, the annual real GDP growth rate is expected to exceed 8.5%. From October to April, investment in fixed assets increased by 19.9% year-on-year, with an average growth of 3.9% in two years; However, compared with industry, export and consumption, the progress of investment recovery is relatively slow and weak, and the overall investment growth rate has not yet returned to the normal growth level before the epidemic. In terms of industries, the recovery progress of manufacturing investment is the slowest, and the average growth rate in two years has not yet turned positive; The recovery of infrastructure investment is weak and the growth rate is low; Real estate investment stands out, showing strong resilience and vitality, which is the main driving force for investment growth at present. Looking forward to the second half of the year, investment in fixed assets will still maintain a stable recovery trend, but the growth momentum may still weaken, and it is urgent to strengthen policies. ACCEPT expects the annual growth rate of fixed assets investment to be 8.5%-9.5%. Although the year-on-year growth rates of household consumption and total retail sales of social consumer goods in the first quarter were as high as 17.6% and 33.9% respectively, the higher growth rate was mainly due to the low base last year. Considering the overall situation in the past two years, the current growth rate of household consumption is still slower than that in 2118 and 2119 before the outbreak of the epidemic. The main reason for the insufficient consumption rebound is that the recovery of total output is not fully reflected in the improvement of residents' income. In addition to the income factor, the occasional recurrence of the epidemic and the adjustment of consumption habits at the beginning of the year also partially led to the slowdown of residents' consumption growth. We believe that in the context of the overall recovery of economic growth, China's household consumption is expected to rebound in the third to fourth quarters of this year.

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