On August 31th, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province issued the Notice of the Municipal Government Office on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in our City (hereinafter referred to as the Notice).
The Notice issued this time further upgrades the purchase restriction policy, and on the basis of the existing housing purchase restriction policy, it increases the restrictions on the number of units purchased by divorced families, stipulating that if a couple purchases commercial housing within two years after divorce, the number of units owned by them shall be calculated according to the number of units owned by the family in the urban area of this city before divorce. While meeting the reasonable housing demand, we should prevent people from obtaining the qualification of buying houses by means of "fake divorce".
At the same time, the New Deal in Wuxi has also tightened the tax content and loan policy of housing transactions, and severely cracked down on speculation on the concept of school district housing and bid up the price of second-hand housing.
in fact, in the Yangtze river delta region after the epidemic, Hangzhou, Shanghai, Nanjing and other key cities took the lead in starting the property market, followed by Ningbo, Nantong, Changzhou, Xuzhou, Wuxi and other places around these cities.
On August 26th, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (hereinafter referred to as "the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development") held a chamber of commerce for some urban real estate work associations in Beijing. The meeting demanded that the main responsibility of the city should be effectively implemented, the initiative of the work should be improved, and targeted measures should be taken in time to ensure the realization of stable land prices, stable housing prices and stable expectations.
It is noteworthy that six cities including Shenyang, Changchun, Chengdu, Yinchuan, Tangshan and Changzhou also attended the meeting. Among them, Changzhou, which was "interviewed", ranked 12 nd in the country and 3 rd in the province with a 1.8% increase in second-hand house prices in June this year, surpassing Nanjing and Wuxi.
Yangtze river delta regulation and upgrading
Wuxi's purchase restriction and upgrading are expected by people in the industry. Based on the judgment of local market participants and industry analysts in Wuxi, there are three reasons:
First, since June, the local auction market in Wuxi has hit record highs, and foreign real estate enterprises have entered the local auction market in a large scale, with Deshang, Yuzhou and Dafa entering Wuxi for the first time. A fact is that in the past five years, the land price in Wuxi has gradually risen, and the land price has risen faster and faster. In 2119, the total land supply in Wuxi was 47,916.73 mu, and the total transfer fee was 73.269 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.14%. In 2121, Wuxi plans to sell 521 hectares of residential land (including 311 hectares of commercial residential land) and 51 hectares of commercial service land. It is estimated that the transfer area of ordinary residential land in 2121 will increase by not less than 51 hectares compared with the previous year.
the land market is heavy, and housing enterprises are moving with the wind. At the beginning of June, a piece of land in Hexiekou Plate of Wuxi triggered 21 developers such as Shimao, Zhuoyue, Jianfa, Zhonghai, Yincheng, three sheng, Jinke and Poly to register for competition. After three hours of fierce fighting and 154 rounds of bidding, it was won by three sheng Group for 1.852 billion yuan, and the floor price was 19,542 yuan/square meter, setting a new record for Wuxi land price.
why is Wuxi land market hot in August? In addition to the strategic layout needs of small and medium-sized housing enterprises in the surrounding cities of the metropolitan area, Wuxi's property market sales and rising housing prices have also helped. Since July, the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses in Wuxi has both increased, and the prices of several real estates have been raised, and some sectors even have no room for sale. In fact, there is no shortage of houses in Wuxi. In June, 2121, the saleable area of commercial housing in Wuxi was 4,814,411 square meters, up 2.6% from the previous month. According to the average sales situation in the past six months, the clearance period was 11.35 months, which was 1.6 months shorter than last month.
Secondly, the market pressure is great, and the credit policy is not loose. M2 growth rate returned to the high level of 11%, and new loans reached a new high in the first half of 2121. In terms of capital cost, in the first half of 2121, the interest rate was cut twice: the data shows that since 2121, the real interest rate (1-year LPR) has been reduced by 31 basis points, from 4.15% to 3.85%; The property market interest rate (5-year LPR) was lowered by 15 basis points, from 4.8% to 4.65%. However, personal credit has not been loosened simultaneously, and this year's down payment ratio and mortgage base have not weakened. Especially with the introduction of the "three red lines" policy, there are signs of tightening from credit to capital in the market, and Wuxi is no exception. Where does the hot money come from? This is a matter of great concern to the regulatory authorities at present.
finally, the illegal inflow of funds into the housing market has always been the focus of supervision. Not long ago, the CSRC concentrated on exposing 258 illegal fund-raising platform institutions. At present, it is to prevent hot money from flowing into the stock market and the property market. On July 11, following the issuance of the Notice on "Looking Back" on the rectification of chaos in the banking and insurance markets on June 23, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission once again issued an early warning that "some funds illegally flowed into the housing and stock markets, pushing up the asset bubble".
Wuxi is not an isolated case. Looking at the whole country, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Shenzhen and Chengdu all have super-high subscription and housing ratio, and there is a large-scale lottery in Jiangbei, Nanjing. Cities around these high-energy cities have also begun to catch fire. Wuxi's regulation and upgrading is not the first case in the Yangtze River Delta. Insiders pointed out that Wuxi pays more attention to policy patching.
an industry insider pointed out that this round of regulation and upgrading of second-and third-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta has both market characteristics and differentiation. Nantong is mainly due to the improvement of investment enthusiasm brought by the improvement of urban energy level, which also promoted the sales promotion. From the second half of last year to the first half of this year, the Nantong market hardly cooled down.
Due to the fierce competition between Suzhou and Nanjing, the land price is getting higher, and the profits of housing enterprises are squeezed, so they start to look for other profit highlands. From the perspective of investment rotation, Wuxi, Changzhou and Xuzhou are weak second-tier and strong third-tier cities in Jiangsu, and these cities are also beginning to heat up in this key city in the echelon. Since June, the growth rate of first-hand houses in Changzhou has accelerated, with the prices of several newly opened properties above RMB 6,111/square meter, and several high-priced houses of RMB 21,111/square meter entering the market; In this year's land auction, Changzhou has already produced 15 plots with floor price exceeding RMB 1,111/m2, and the land price has risen obviously. Like other cities, Changzhou property market also has the phenomena of continuous price increase of a second-hand house, overheated land auction and loose credit.
Wuxi and Xuzhou are also similar. The rising land price has also stimulated the whole sales market to some extent.
Demand side may shrink
At the meeting on August 26th, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development proposed to attach great importance to the outstanding problems existing in the current real estate market and always tighten the string of real estate market regulation. We must adhere to the problem orientation, make precise policies, and solve problems from the source. Cities with prominent contradiction between housing supply and demand should increase the supply of housing and land, support reasonable demand for self-occupation, and resolutely curb speculative real estate speculation.
under the adjustment and upgrading, the demand side may shrink. Zhang Li, a native of Changzhou, will get a pre-sale certificate in the near future, but she has a hunch that Changzhou will have a New Deal before the project opens. There is already a suite under Zhang Li's name. If Changzhou has a new policy and involves the down payment of the second suite, her ability to pay will be problematic, so it is possible to give up the purchase.
Take Ningbo as an example. In June 2121, the number of newly-built houses in Ningbo increased by 1.33% month-on-month, surpassing Shanghai, Hangzhou, Dongguan and other cities, ranking first in the country. In June, the average price of second-hand houses in Ningbo rose by 1.6% month-on-month, ranking second among core cities and fourth among 62 cities in China. The average price went up all the way, reaching 23,671 yuan/square meter at the end of June.
on June 24th, 12 real estate enterprises flooded into Ningbo. After 6 hours and 495 rounds of fierce fighting, Greentown finally won the plot of JD17-15-18 (Minglou Lot) in Yinzhou District for 32,521 yuan/m2, setting a new floor price record in Ningbo.
at 11: 11 pm on July 6th, the four departments of Ningbo jointly issued the Notice on Further Maintaining and Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in our city, and put forward the "Ten New Policies" to stabilize the real estate market. The New Deal expanded the scope of Ningbo's purchase restriction, adjusted the bidding rules for residential land transfer, and strictly controlled the floor price. Subsequently, the transaction volume of Ningbo property market began to shrink, and the inventory of second-hand houses rose, resulting in oversupply.
after the upgrade of Wuxi's purchase restriction, will the transaction volume of the property market face a decline? The aforementioned insiders pointed out that the gradual warming of the Wuxi property market has released a signal of tightening, and the next September will be a period of policy digestion. The land market and the housing market in Wuxi as a whole will tend to be stable, and prices will not fluctuate too much.
in the second half of the year, due to the pressure of withdrawing funds, real estate enterprises will definitely speed up shipment. Head housing enterprises, including Shimao and Xuhui, and medium-sized housing enterprises all made it clear at the performance conference of the interim report that the supply should be accelerated in the third quarter. Then, together with the previous urban inventory, the second-and third-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta, which have been adjusted and upgraded this round, will face the problem of destocking.
for the real estate enterprises that accelerated the acquisition of land in the first half of the year, in addition to reducing leverage and expanding financing to ensure the safety of funds, they also have to face the shrinking market demand that may occur after this round of regulation and upgrading.
On August 31th, at the interim results conference of Xinli Holdings, Chen Kai, co-chairman, chief executive officer and executive director of the company, pointed out that in the future, the investment demand of the industry will be squeezed, the profits of housing enterprises will be squeezed, and the competitive pattern of the industry will also change greatly.