Beneficial industries
Tourism should be the biggest beneficiary during the World Cup. The tourism department predicts that 3.7 million domestic and foreign tourists will shuttle through cities in Brazil during the World Cup, bringing 6.7 billion reais (about 2.99 billion US dollars) to the tourism industry.
The urban construction industry is also a beneficiary. According to the survey, 30% of the enterprises surveyed believe that the World Cup will have a positive impact on enterprises, only 9% think it will be negatively affected, and 52% think it will not have much impact.
In terms of employment, officials predict that the World Cup will create175,000 jobs, and some jobs will still exist after the World Cup. Jobs such as security, stadium reception and tourism reception will surge. Brazil's National Federation of Commerce, Service Industry and Tourism predicts that the industries such as accommodation, catering, transportation, travel agencies and cultural services will expand employment, and nearly 48,000 new jobs will be created from April to June in 20 14.
Damaged industry
Brazilian economists generally believe that the World Cup will bring some benefits, but the impact is short-lived and limited to some economic sectors. For example, the World Cup can promote TV sales, but there is no evidence that it will have an overall impact on the industry, because it is likely that TV sales will drop sharply in the months after the World Cup.
For some departments, competition may still have a negative impact. Too many holidays during the World Cup will cause economic stagnation. Scholars at McKinsey University predict that the retail sales on the match day may drop by nearly 5%. Throughout June and July, retail sales may decrease by 65.438+0.5 billion reais (about 669 million US dollars).
In addition, there may be large-scale demonstrations during the World Cup. Researchers at the Vargas Foundation in Brazil said that the parade had an impact on Brazil as a whole. The parade during the Confederations Cup last year did great harm to Brazil's economy, especially to public and private property.
Overall impact
Trend, a consulting firm, said that the World Cup is expected to have an impact on economic activities, but it has little impact on the economy throughout the year. Serrano, a senior economist at San Espiritu Investment Bank, believes that the impact of the World Cup on the economy is "almost zero". He said: "Generally speaking, industrial production should be the highest in May, and it will almost stagnate in June and July. The specific impact is unknown at present, but the growth is definitely limited. "
Moody's reported that the investment in upgrading the World Cup infrastructure-football fields, airports, ports and urban transportation is about 26 billion reais (about116.03 million US dollars), which is very low in Brazil's investment plan for 20 10 to 20 14 years.
Almeida, an economist at the Brazilian Institute of Practical Economics, said: "The most direct impact is the stadium. Other infrastructures are under construction, but Brazil will improve them whether the World Cup is held or not. The so-called World Cup legacy is really rare in Brazil compared with other countries. "
In the budget of 20 14, the Brazilian government predicted that the economic growth rate was 2.5%, and the central bank predicted that it was 2%, which had little change compared with the economic growth rate of 2.3% in 20 13. It can be seen that the government does not have much expectation for the World Cup.