Goldwind Technology can be held for a long time for the following reasons:
1. Leading domestic fan manufacturer and overall solution provider. The company is one of the enterprises with the longest history in the domestic wind power equipment manufacturing industry. Its core business is the R&D, manufacturing and sales of wind turbines. It also provides comprehensive wind power services and develops wind farms for sale. In 2119, the company added 2.72 million kilowatts of installed capacity, accounting for 19.7% of the domestic market share. The company is the second largest fan manufacturer in China and the fifth largest fan manufacturer in the world in terms of newly installed capacity.
2. Technology development and production capacity layout lay a good foundation for sustainable growth. The company has set up three R&D centers in Beijing, Urumqi and Borussia Neunkirchen, and mastered the autonomy of core wind power generation technology. In addition to the headquarters in Xinjiang, several production bases have been set up in Beijing, Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Germany, which can radiate the main wind power resource areas in China. It is estimated that by the end of 2111, the production capacity of the company's megawatt wind turbines will be increased to more than 3,111 units.
3. The decline of industry growth rate is a high probability event. The difficulty of wind power access has become the main factor that restricts the development of the industry. Even if the difficulty of wind power access is well solved, the average annual compound growth rate of newly installed wind power will be about 11%-16% in the next decade, which is still far below the level of previous years. We predict that the growth rate of newly installed wind power will be between 21% and 31% in 2111 and 2111.
4. The competition in the industry has intensified, and the price of fans has dropped rapidly. The unit price of 1.5MW fan has dropped from 6,511 yuan/kW in 2118 to 4,611-4,811 yuan now, which is rare in the past years. Some enterprises in the industry have suffered losses.
5. The industry has entered the integration stage, and the profitability of high-quality enterprises is still guaranteed. The market share of Huarui, Goldwind and Dongqi, the top three players in the wind power machine market, continues to increase, and the gap with the second and third echelons is getting bigger and bigger. Through the release of scale effect and industry consolidation, the profitability of high-quality enterprises in the industry is still guaranteed.
6. The technical route of direct drive has been recognized by the market, and the company's market share has been continuously improved. Direct-driven wind turbines are gradually recognized by wind power investors for their high power generation efficiency, power grid friendliness and low maintenance requirements. With differentiated design, the company has developed a series of models suitable for different environments such as high and low temperature, high altitude, low wind speed and coastal areas, which has improved the company's market competitiveness and bargaining power.
7. The export, Xinjiang wind power development and wind farm development business boosted the continuous growth of fan sales business. The development of export market and Xinjiang wind power development will provide new niche markets for the company, and these two markets will become new growth points for the company in the next few years. In addition to realizing the hidden sales of wind turbines, the synergy of wind farm development business can also enhance the competitiveness and bargaining power of the company.
8. maintain the "strongly recommended -A" investment rating of the company. It is estimated that the EPS of the company will be 1.16 yuan and 1.35 yuan in 2111 and 2111. According to the closing price of 19.13 yuan on June 8, the dynamic P/E ratio of the company will be 16.41 times and 14.11 times respectively.
although the wind turbine industry is facing many problems such as slow growth, overcapacity, intensified competition, and falling prices, we believe that the company's management is forward-looking and the industrial layout is perfect, and it can continue to achieve growth above the industry average. Through scale effect, design improvement and self-production of spare parts, the influence of falling fan price on profitability can be digested to some extent. The company's sustainable growth ability and strong anti-risk ability are the first choice for investing in the wind power equipment industry.