Food prices are still the main factor driving CPI. Since August, the upward trend of food prices has weakened, leading to a decline in CPI growth. In August, food prices rose by 1 1.2% year-on-year, which was 2.0 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The month-on-month increase was 1.4%, and the increase was reduced by 1.4 percentage points, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.3 1 percentage point.
Specifically, the prices of livestock meat, fresh vegetables and eggs have increased to varying degrees compared with last month; The price of fresh fruit decreased by 0.4%, narrowing by 4.0 percentage points, and the price of aquatic products turned from rising to falling, down by 0.4% from the previous month. Compared with the same period of last year, the prices of livestock meat and fresh vegetables are also slightly higher, while the prices of fresh fruits and eggs are lower than that of the same period of last year. The prices of chicken meat and duck meat decreased by 1.6% and 0.9% respectively, which is the first decline in the past three years.
Among them, pork prices rose for the third consecutive month, but the growth rate dropped significantly, rising by 1.2% month-on-month, 9. 1 percentage point year-on-year, 52.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped significantly by 33. 1 percentage point. After falling for nine consecutive months, the price of eggs turned up by 4.0% in July, and the increase continued to expand. In August, the price of eggs rose by 1 1.3% month-on-month, an increase of 7.3 percentage points over the previous month.
Non-food prices rose by 0. 1% compared with last month, which was the first increase since February this year, affecting CPI by about 0.09 percentage points; The year-on-year increase was 0. 1% compared with last month. Among them, due to the increase in summer travel, the prices of air tickets and hotel accommodation increased by 7.3% and 2.1%respectively; Affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, the prices of gasoline and diesel increased by 0.9% and 1.0% respectively.
Dong, senior statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in August, all localities actively coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, with remarkable results and overall balance between market supply and demand. According to estimates, in the year-on-year increase of 2.4% in August, the impact of price changes last year was about 2. 1 percentage point, and the impact of new price increases was about 0.3 percentage point.
When will the inflection point of pork price come? Expert: The increase in demand leads to the price increase. It is expected that there will be an inflection point in September and 10.
Since the beginning of this year, with the improvement of the supply of live pigs, pork prices have continued to fall. However, pork prices rebounded in June, up 3.6% from the previous month; The upward trend in July continued and expanded, with a month-on-month increase of 10.3%. Then, the obvious upward trend declined. In August, pork prices rose by 1.2% month-on-month, and the growth rate dropped by 9. 1 percentage point. It increased by 52.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 33. 1 percentage point.
Affected by rising pork prices, rising feed costs and warmer demand, the prices of alternative meats such as cattle, sheep, mutton, chickens and ducks rose sharply by 0.5%? Between 65438 and 0.4%.
On the market side, the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that in August, the average wholesale price of pork rose by 0.7% month-on-month and 69.8% year-on-year, and the increase was obviously weakened. The price of beef and mutton instead of meat increased greatly, and the average wholesale price of beef increased by 2.2% month-on-month and 16.2% year-on-year. The average wholesale price of mutton increased by 2.5% month-on-month and 10.7% year-on-year.
The National Bureau of Statistics today explained the reasons for the continuous increase in pork prices: mainly due to the continuous increase in demand.
As the epidemic situation in COVID-19, China remained stable, the resumption of work and production accelerated, the economy and society recovered obviously, and consumer demand for catering began to pick up.
Xu Ke, a researcher at Trust Investment Research Institute, believes that the catering industry picked up in June and July, and the demand for pork was released obviously. Due to floods, the slaughter efficiency in some overlapping production areas is reduced. Under the dual effects of supply and demand, the breeding enterprises are expected to improve, and farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to an increase in pork prices. Answer the phone.
The reporter noticed that although the price of pork? Three consecutive rises? However, the growth rate has dropped significantly. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, this is mainly due to the improvement of pork supply.
Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment, believes that the recent floods in many places have affected transportation. In the previous stage, the pork supply in some places was in a relatively shrinking state, leading to some staged imbalances in the supply recovery process. But the supply is obviously expanding, which can better match the demand, and the relationship between supply and demand is gradually improving.
Based on this, he judged that it is unlikely that pork prices will rise sharply again. Combined with the situation of pork price last year, it can be predicted that the year-on-year data of pork price will also drop significantly in the second half or fourth quarter of this year.
Xu Ke said that with the pork supply returning to normal, the inflection point of pork price may appear in September, 65438+ 10. ? Since August, the national rainfall has decreased, pig transportation has gradually resumed, and the demand for high-priced pork has been weak. Farmers' enthusiasm for slaughter has increased, and the supply side has increased in the short term. ?
With the increase of live pigs in September and June, 65438+ 10, the supply of pork will return to normal, and the motivation to maintain high pork prices will no longer exist, and the inflection point of pork prices may appear between September and kloc-0/0.