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after may day, the market has entered a new stage.

Why has May Day become a watershed?

First of all, from the time point of view, May is the time when wheat begins to harvest. The listing of new wheat will inevitably shift the market collection point to new wheat, and corn will fluctuate with the listing of new wheat, and the previous balance will be broken.

Secondly, the weather basically began to pick up after May. Although it is still cold in May, it is still much warmer than in March and April.

The change of weather will have a certain impact on pigs and broilers.

Third, consumption picked up after May Day.

Usually, after the Spring Festival, consumption is in a downturn, but with the warm spring in bloom and the arrival of summer, market consumption will also pick up to some extent.

(Although health incidents have a great impact on the catering industry, residents' demand for stocking has generally increased, so it has been boosted to some extent.

)

So, what changes have taken place in the market after May Day?

1. Is the price of pigs difficult to rise?

One of the biggest changes in the pig market around May Day is that the price has risen obviously, which is obviously higher than that in March and April.

on the one hand, the purchasing and storage has really boosted the pig market, especially after the price of pig and grain broke away from the early warning range of excessive decline, the seventh round of central purchasing and storage was launched, which further boosted the market sentiment.

On the other hand, with the boost of market sentiment, farmers' confidence has also increased significantly. In addition, health incidents have increased the stocking in the downstream market, which has boosted pork consumption.

As a result, the pig price has risen, and the current pig price has been in the range of 7-8 yuan/kg.

There is also a view about the pig market that the "turning point" of this year's pig cycle will appear in the middle of the year, that is to say, the "turning point" may come in June, which makes the market's expectations for the pig market increase.

but from the basic supply and demand side, it is unlikely that the pig price will continue to rise.

First, due to the current health incidents, the transportation of live pigs in some areas is still blocked, which makes the supply of live pigs in the producing areas too high.

With the normalization of prevention and control, the procurement in the downstream market tends to be more rational.

the second reason is that although the production capacity has returned to the normal range, all major pig enterprises are eyeing up and increasing production at any time, while the consumption growth is not as expected.

Therefore, in this case, there is obviously insufficient motivation for pig prices to continue to rise.

second, is the price of eggs hard to fall?

compared with the pig price, the egg price is more difficult to fall.

Since the second half of last year, the price of eggs has been in a tight state of supply and demand. The price of eggs is much higher than in previous years, and it has been fluctuating at the "5 yuan" mark this year.

On the eve of May Day, the price of eggs rose significantly, and the retail price in some areas once rose to 7 yuan/Jin. Although the price of eggs began to fall after May Day, the overall decline was not significant.

Recently, there is a rising trend again, and the mainstream egg price is approaching 5 yuan again.

The reason why the egg price is difficult to drop is mainly due to the shortage of stock, and the laying rate of laying hens will be affected to some extent with the increasingly hot weather.

On the other hand, there is often no obvious trough in the consumption of eggs, so it is unlikely that the price of eggs will plummet in the short term.

Third, food prices fluctuate

Compared with pig prices and egg prices, the current food prices are fluctuating and adjusting.

on the one hand, the new wheat has just been listed, and it is still in the early stage, and it has not yet ushered in the main market period, so at this time, both the new wheat and the old wheat are constantly adjusting.

However, it is basically certain that the price of old wheat will not fall too much, and it has basically bottomed out around 1.53-1.6 yuan/kg; Although the new wheat has declined recently, the pattern of "high opening" has basically been laid in view of the increase in planting costs and the tight supply and demand of international wheat.

On the other hand, corn prices have also undergone a new round of adjustment.

First, the purchase and sale of corn is coming to an end, and the grain source begins to shift from the grass-roots to the traders. When the main grain holder changes, the market will have an adjustment process; Second, the price trend of new wheat also affects the trend of corn to a certain extent. After all, after wheat withdrew from the feeding field, it formed a new price relationship with corn.

Therefore, in May-June, the prices of wheat and corn are in a volatile adjustment.

when the price of new wheat is basically determined, the probability of corn will also usher in a new round of changes.

for more information, welcome to collect the "new concept of agriculture" and learn about the new development of agriculture, rural areas and farmers in the new era.