First, all-round opening to the outside world
In the past, two words were often used in opening to the outside world: expanding exports and attracting foreign investment. Expanding exports is to use the international market, and attracting foreign investment is to use international capital. At that time, we had just reformed and opened up, and it was right to choose this strategy. Because there was no domestic market at that time, it was necessary to use the international market to expand exports. In the past, we were poor and lacked capital, so we had to attract foreign investment.
China's strategy has been carried out for several decades, but there are some obstacles at present, so China must now move towards full opening up and provide help to others. This all-round opening will inevitably promote the further development of globalization.
Nowadays, the academic circles divide globalization into three eras. The first time was at 1750-1950. At that time, the main way of globalization was colonization. The end of World War II marked the end of globalization characterized by colonization.
Shandong, a busy Qingdao port.
The second globalization of human society is from 1950 to the present, characterized by international trade. Both the WTO and the World Bank were born in this period.
1978 started the reform and opening up, and it has a strong advantage of being a latecomer. However, as the initiator of the United States, the manufacturing industry has shifted outward, the domestic infrastructure is outdated, and the wages of workers have not increased much in the past 20 years. The United States took the lead in causing an anti-globalization wave. Trump's coming to power is the inevitable result of anti-globalization.
The reason why the West is a little afraid of China is our whole industrial chain. Five or six years ago, I went to America to visit an economist. He told me that you produce clothes, shoes, hats and socks first, and then household appliances. After the production of household appliances, you produced cars, after the production of cars, you produced high-speed rail, after the production of high-speed rail, you produced it, and after it was produced, you produced airplanes. You are the whole industrial chain, and1400 million people support the whole industrial chain.
I estimate that human society may enter the third globalization, that is, global allocation of resources. The global allocation of resources can solve some shortcomings of the second globalization.
There are two kinds of resources for others to hitch a ride with our resources. First, the huge domestic market. China people have become rich. Last year, the scale of outbound tourism was more than 654.38 billion, which shocked the whole world. Opening the market can promote China's economic growth in terms of consumption and supply, and bring new opportunities and development to China.
The police at the border checkpoint of Qingdao Airport went through customs clearance procedures for an outbound family.
This year, a permanent import fair will be set up in Shanghai, and Guangzhou will be an export fair, so as to substantially reduce import tariffs, including resources, technology, people's livelihood and other commodities.
Second, huge excess capital. Open the service market in all directions, such as finance, education and medical care. In some areas, the upper limit of foreign shareholding ratio was relaxed to 5 1%, and it will not be set after three years. In addition, foreign investment can be increased. For example, the Belt and Road Initiative has found new exports for China capital.
China should lead the third globalization and promote the global allocation of technology, capital and labor.
Second, supply-side structural reform.
The essence of supply-side structural reform is to find new industries to support growth and carry out structural adjustment, which cannot be simply understood as "three to one drop", removing production capacity, inventory, leverage and cost reduction. It is estimated that in the next seven years or so, the three major industries may become the most important pillar industries for China's economic growth.
1. Strategic emerging industries
From the perspective of the next twenty years or so, strategic emerging industries mainly include eight points:
New energy—
An energy revolution is bound to break out in the future of human society. New energy technology has made great breakthroughs in recent years. When investigating five or six years ago, I found that the technical route was still very vague. But great changes have taken place in the past year or two. I estimate that the new energy era need not wait until the distant future, and it may arrive soon. Last July, I participated in the Frankfurt Motor Show with the theme of "Elephant Turning". The prototypes of many big-name manufacturers are basically new energy vehicles, not traditional cars.
New materials—
The upgrading of many industries depends on material changes. In the future, there will be a lot of black technology in the field of new materials, which may be done by small and medium-sized enterprises.
In a recent survey in Guangdong, they talked about one thing: there are more than 400 private enterprises in a new material science and technology park in South China. For example, the biggest pollution source now is plastic bags. A company is going to produce films and plastic bags with soluble materials, which will become carbohydrates after being buried underground for 24 hours. Now the cost of this soluble material is relatively high. Once the cost is reduced, plastic bags are all soluble materials, so what pollution is there?
Life bioengineering—
Life bioengineering involves hygiene, medical treatment, health and so on, and its scope is extremely extensive. Recently, I went to a laboratory and they told me that the future development direction of human society will no longer be organ transplantation, but organ reconstruction.
Information technology and mobile internet—
Information technology and mobile internet have made great progress, and both software and hardware have great prospects.
In terms of hardware, we can't produce some key components yet. This country imports as many potato chips as oil every year. I ran some research recently, and I have a hunch that hardware innovation will be completed soon, and once it is completed, it will be a huge market. And the terminal use of information, we and the United States have stood on the same starting line, and some enterprises have even far surpassed them.
Energy conservation and environmental protection-
If the waste water and waste gas brought by industrialization and urbanization of human society are not treated, it means that industrialization and urbanization are not completed. We can treat general biological wastewater, but it is difficult to meet chemical and hospital wastewater. The only way to realize energy conservation and environmental protection in the future is to rely on technology.
New energy vehicles-
It is inevitable that new energy vehicles will replace traditional vehicles, not in the distant future, but soon.
Workers of a new energy automobile company in Qinghe County, Hebei Province are busy on the electric vehicle production line.
Artificial intelligence—
The era of artificial intelligence has quietly arrived. Some people say it is the fourth industrialization: the first three times were mechanization, electrification and informationization, and now it is intelligence. China will vigorously promote artificial intelligence.
High-end equipment manufacturing-
There is still a gap in our high-end equipment manufacturing, and many medical equipment cannot be produced. Why do people have to go from county hospitals to provincial hospitals to see a doctor? Because provincial hospitals have equipment, county hospitals don't. In the future, high-end equipment will be listed as a strategic emerging industry, which needs to be strengthened.
Once these eight strategic emerging industries are developed, the total GDP brought to us every year is incalculable.
2. Service industry
In the future, the service industry will become the second most important industry to promote the development of China. Services are population-based. Our population is close to 654.38+0.4 billion, so we should make great efforts to develop. Last year, the contribution of China's consumption exceeded investment for the first time. The important reason is that the contribution rate of service industry in consumption has risen sharply.
The next step is to continue to develop and divide the service industry into four categories:
The first category is consumer services. Including catering and commerce, old-age care and health;
The second category is business services. Including business services, family property management services and park management services;
The third category, production service industry. Including technical services, design/outsourcing services, etc.
The fourth category is the spiritual service industry. Including film and television, music, drama, tourism, leisure, entertainment, culture, publishing, sports and so on to meet people's spiritual needs. The spiritual service industry provided us with 13 trillion last year, which has great prospects.
I estimate that there will be many new growth and investment contributions in China's service industry in the future. Our country is opening its service industry to the international community, and the establishment of the new immigration bureau is around this goal.
3. Modern manufacturing industry
Manufacturing industry is divided into traditional manufacturing industry and modern manufacturing industry. Anyone who produces private products (food and clothing) is called traditional manufacturing; The production of public goods is called modern manufacturing. Traditional manufacturing industry has given us almost saturated support, but public goods are seriously inadequate, and modern manufacturing industry that produces public goods has gradually risen to a supporting industry.
To vigorously develop modern manufacturing industry, we should focus on five points: first, aircraft manufacturing and spacecraft manufacturing; The second is the manufacturing of high-speed rail equipment; The third is the manufacture of nuclear power equipment; Fourth, UHV transmission device; Fifth, modern ships and modern marine equipment manufacturing. Once these five points are developed, the total GDP provided to us every year is also quite huge.
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The important driving force for our next growth comes from supply-side structural reform, because structural adjustment will produce new supporting industries. Behind the development of these industries, China must have the right to speak technology, and the right to speak technology will affect and drive the development of related industries in China. (Excerpted from Wei Jie, Director of China Economic Research Center in Tsinghua University)