Bankers do not rule out the possibility of RMB appreciation.
Li Yingnan, a foreign exchange analyst at Chengdu Branch of China Merchants Bank (Information Market Forum), believes that once the RMB appreciates, the direct result will be that the competitiveness of China's export commodities will weaken, the export will slow down, and the employment pressure may increase. Most of the international hot money betting on RMB appreciation enters the domestic real estate market. If the operation is not careful, the withdrawal of this part of hot money may lead to a sharp drop in house prices and a large number of non-performing loans in real estate credit, which the government does not want to see. In addition, the relevant person in charge of the central bank has revealed that the technical preparation for RMB exchange rate reform is ready, but "technical preparation" is only a part. Therefore, bankers judge that the relevant policies and supporting preparations for the current exchange rate reform are not sufficient. An unnamed person from Sichuan Branch of China Construction Bank also believes that RMB appreciation is "not well prepared".
expert opinion/advice
The exchange rate should be adjusted before the interest rate.
At the beginning of the year, Zhang, vice president of Chengdu University and deputy director of China Economic Development Research Center of Oxford University, thought that RMB would face an exchange rate adjustment of about 4%, and it would be adjusted in small steps and gradually put in place. In an interview with reporters yesterday, he still insisted on his point of view, because China's economic development must focus on the global economy, and the current exchange rate mechanism has not adapted to the needs of economic development. At present, the US dollar has once again announced a rate hike, and the RMB is bound to keep up. However, Professor Zhang believes that the adjustment of RMB exchange rate should precede the adjustment of interest rate, so the advantages outweigh the disadvantages and it is "more appropriate".
Professor Zhang believes that the adjustment of RMB exchange rate and interest rate is closely related to the domestic real estate fever. Judging from the implementation of domestic macro-control policies, monetary, fiscal, land, administrative and other control means are all linked. Zhang previously pointed out that the world economy will face three major risks, including the risk of high world oil prices, the risk of the world real estate bubble and the risk of twin deficits (that is, the risk of the depreciation of the US dollar). Zhang is the first economist at home and abroad to put forward the theory of "three major risks", which has attracted great attention from relevant state departments and theoretical circles. It is Professor Zhang's consistent proposition to look at China's economy and RMB appreciation from a global perspective.
Financial management strategy
Foreign currency can be temporarily converted into RMB.
In view of the signs of an increase in bank settlement in Rongcheng area, people from China Merchants Bank suggest that active investors can consider speculating in foreign exchange. Due to many rumors, the foreign exchange market has fluctuated greatly recently, which is a good opportunity for short-term speculators. Cautious investors can consider temporarily converting foreign exchange into RMB. In addition, citizens can also exchange their dollars into euros, pounds, Australian dollars, Canadian dollars and other currencies. In fact, the appreciation of the renminbi has the greatest impact on the yen.
House price trend
Whether the RMB appreciates or not is a turning point.
House prices are definitely affected by exchange rate changes. A professor surnamed Dong from Sichuan University said that theoretically, when the market is expected to appreciate, a large amount of short-term international speculative funds will flood into China, and these hot money will "wait for the rabbit" in the real estate market, waiting for the appreciation of RMB. With the continuous addition of hot money, it will eventually lead to the rise of the stock market and housing prices. But at the same time, if a large number of international hot money leaves the domestic property market after the RMB exchange rate adjustment, it may lead to a sharp drop in house prices. The source stressed that it remains to be seen whether RMB appreciation will become a turning point in housing price changes.
However, another related person predicted that because Chengdu is located in the west, the direct impact of exchange rate changes on housing prices will be minimal, and he was worried that the fluctuations in housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou would affect the expectations of inland housing prices.
Consumption expectation
It is unrealistic to drastically reduce the prices of imported goods.
Theoretically speaking, the appreciation of RMB means that the price of imported goods falls, which in turn drives the price of domestic general consumer goods to fall, but some people do not agree with this view. Li Yingnan, a person from China Merchants Bank, said that in fact, most foreign manufacturers have set up production lines in China, and these products will not be affected by the exchange rate. However, he predicted that the volume of imported goods would increase substantially, but he was not sure whether the price of imported cars would decrease. "Car prices are more limited by market factors." The impact of RMB appreciation on import and export is direct, but it is indirect to domestic consumer goods. A person in Wangfujing (Information Forum) Department Store cautiously said that the price of imported goods may be reduced, including imported jewelry, electrical appliances, clothing and cosmetics. But it's hard to say how much space there is.
Zhang Depeng, CEO of Chengdu Sanhe Group, stressed that the appreciation of RMB has a great influence on automobile prices, and one of the reasons for the continuous decline of automobile prices in 2005 is related to the appreciation of RMB.
On the positive side,
Studying abroad, traveling and shopping will be cost-effective.
Liu Hai, business manager of Kang Hui Travel Agency, told reporters happily that if the RMB appreciates, it will definitely be a big plus for outbound tourism. This means that "RMB is valuable" abroad. According to the exchange rate provided by this person, both the euro and the Australian dollar fell against the RMB. The exchange rate of euro against RMB was 10.9 on May 1st, but it fell to 10.4 yesterday, which means that RMB is a good deal in the euro zone. As the exchange rate of the Australian dollar against the RMB has fallen, the12,000 yuan trip to Australia has saved 500 yuan RMB, which will definitely attract more people to travel abroad.
Liu Hai told reporters that at present, travel agencies are paying close attention to the RMB exchange rate every day, and the settlement price is calculated according to the bank quotation on the day of the delegation. Bankers said that if the RMB appreciates by 5%, the corresponding outbound travel, study abroad and overseas shopping will all be "saved" by 5%. They think that if the RMB appreciates, it will bring a wave of going abroad.
The appreciation of RMB has seriously affected China's economy. There are six hazards: RMB is not freely convertible under capital account, that is to say, the mechanism for determining the exchange rate is not the market, and the change is meaningless; The appreciation of RMB will bring greater pressure to China's deflation; The appreciation of RMB exchange rate will lead to the decline of attracting foreign investment and reducing foreign direct investment in China; It has caused great harm to China's foreign trade exports; The appreciation of RMB exchange rate will reduce the profit rate of China enterprises and increase the employment pressure; The fiscal deficit will increase due to the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, and it will also affect the stability of monetary policy.
The appreciation of RMB will cause serious damage to China's advantageous industries. Judging from the pattern of international division of labor, China, as a developing country, is dominated by manufacturing compared with developed countries, and this trade structure is easily affected by the change of exchange rate level.
With the appreciation of RMB, the production cost and labor cost of exporters will increase accordingly. Compared with developed countries, China, as a developing country, has the advantage of labor cost. As a dominant enterprise in China, labor-intensive enterprises have low product grade and low added value. Under the condition that the international market price remains unchanged, the decline in export profits will seriously affect the enthusiasm of exporters. Affected by SARS, the number of products ordered by foreign countries from domestic industrial enterprises decreased by 4 1% in the second quarter, and it is expected that the number of enterprises will decrease by 33% in the second half of the year, while the number will only increase by 19%. At the same time, new protectionism is on the rise in the field of international trade. Some developed countries set up various non-tariff barriers such as environmental protection standards, quality standards, technology and health standards to restrict imports and abuse anti-dumping measures to protect them. In this case, the appreciation of RMB will make the current situation worse.
The appreciation of RMB has worsened the current employment situation: foreign-funded enterprises are an important channel to attract domestic labor, especially now. Affected by SARS, the demand for employment declined, with nearly 20,000 jobs in May. Tourism, catering and commerce, which are seriously affected by SARS, are labor-intensive industries, accounting for three times of their GDP, so the appreciation of RMB at this time will not only affect attracting foreign investment, but also aggravate the current employment situation.
The appreciation of RMB will increase the risk of domestic enterprises: China has always implemented the exchange rate system of RMB pegged to the US dollar. If RMB appreciates, it will increase the foreign exchange risk management cost of enterprises. Changes in exchange rates cause changes in the relative prices of imported materials and export commodities, which will inevitably affect the competitiveness of enterprises in the market. From the financial point of view, it mainly refers to adjusting the insured assets and liabilities and changing the strength and currency of the net risk position, so as to realize the management of foreign exchange risks. If the appreciation of RMB changes the exchange rate against the hard currency dollar now, it will bring extra burden and panic to many import and export enterprises, which will inevitably increase the risk cost of foreign exchange.